I suspect that the credit behind a lot of the massive AI investments is being backed by SRTs, either via SPVs or direct-issue. These financial instruments are just as fragile as the CDOs from the GFC, specifically where SPVs are providing credit protection but aren't actually holding enough capital.
December 17, 2025 at 2:49 PM
I suspect that the credit behind a lot of the massive AI investments is being backed by SRTs, either via SPVs or direct-issue. These financial instruments are just as fragile as the CDOs from the GFC, specifically where SPVs are providing credit protection but aren't actually holding enough capital.
Oracle's credit swaps trade at 125 basis points - junk territory despite investment-grade ratings. Barclays projects cash exhaustion by Nov 2026. Unlike Microsoft/Meta using off-balance SPVs, Oracle... https://www.implicator.ai/oracle-bleeds-red-google-crawls-free/
December 16, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Oracle's credit swaps trade at 125 basis points - junk territory despite investment-grade ratings. Barclays projects cash exhaustion by Nov 2026. Unlike Microsoft/Meta using off-balance SPVs, Oracle... https://www.implicator.ai/oracle-bleeds-red-google-crawls-free/
Sixth: But can't willing member states just gang up and borrow together in the markets through an SPV they set up? Actually, that is what happened in the eurocrisis with the ESM's precursor, the EFSF. And guess what: Eurostat decided that guarantees to SPVs add to the debt stock of MS.
December 16, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Sixth: But can't willing member states just gang up and borrow together in the markets through an SPV they set up? Actually, that is what happened in the eurocrisis with the ESM's precursor, the EFSF. And guess what: Eurostat decided that guarantees to SPVs add to the debt stock of MS.
こんばんは🌙🦉休日担当のたいらです✨
今更ですが、新しいスマートフォンにタッチペンが付属されていたと気づきました。
「なんかポッチがあるなぁ」とは思っていたのですが、そのポッチをずっと引っ張っていたので正体が分からず…
たまたま押してみたらタッチペンがぴょーんと😅
私って案外アナログ人間？
今日も残りわずかですが、素敵な夜をお過ごしください🌟
新作良かったら👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPVS...
今更ですが、新しいスマートフォンにタッチペンが付属されていたと気づきました。
「なんかポッチがあるなぁ」とは思っていたのですが、そのポッチをずっと引っ張っていたので正体が分からず…
たまたま押してみたらタッチペンがぴょーんと😅
私って案外アナログ人間？
今日も残りわずかですが、素敵な夜をお過ごしください🌟
新作良かったら👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPVS...
December 14, 2025 at 11:51 AM
こんばんは🌙🦉休日担当のたいらです✨
今更ですが、新しいスマートフォンにタッチペンが付属されていたと気づきました。
「なんかポッチがあるなぁ」とは思っていたのですが、そのポッチをずっと引っ張っていたので正体が分からず…
たまたま押してみたらタッチペンがぴょーんと😅
私って案外アナログ人間？
今日も残りわずかですが、素敵な夜をお過ごしください🌟
新作良かったら👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPVS...
今更ですが、新しいスマートフォンにタッチペンが付属されていたと気づきました。
「なんかポッチがあるなぁ」とは思っていたのですが、そのポッチをずっと引っ張っていたので正体が分からず…
たまたま押してみたらタッチペンがぴょーんと😅
私って案外アナログ人間？
今日も残りわずかですが、素敵な夜をお過ごしください🌟
新作良かったら👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPVS...
おはようございます🐔☀休日担当のたいらです！
今日はいつもと違う動画を投稿しました🎨
絵がそんなにお上手ではない2人が、こだわったりパッションで勝負をしたり…
とりあえず
「伝われ～！」
という思いで #絵しりとり をしたので見てくださいね！
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPVS...
#ILLUSTCHAINER #イラストチェイナー
#女性ゲーム実況 #ゲーム実況プレイ #youtube
今日はいつもと違う動画を投稿しました🎨
絵がそんなにお上手ではない2人が、こだわったりパッションで勝負をしたり…
とりあえず
「伝われ～！」
という思いで #絵しりとり をしたので見てくださいね！
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPVS...
#ILLUSTCHAINER #イラストチェイナー
#女性ゲーム実況 #ゲーム実況プレイ #youtube
【ILLUST CHAINER】伝わればいいんだよ絵しりとり
YouTube video by 成と平
www.youtube.com
December 12, 2025 at 11:52 PM
おはようございます🐔☀休日担当のたいらです！
今日はいつもと違う動画を投稿しました🎨
絵がそんなにお上手ではない2人が、こだわったりパッションで勝負をしたり…
とりあえず
「伝われ～！」
という思いで #絵しりとり をしたので見てくださいね！
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPVS...
#ILLUSTCHAINER #イラストチェイナー
#女性ゲーム実況 #ゲーム実況プレイ #youtube
今日はいつもと違う動画を投稿しました🎨
絵がそんなにお上手ではない2人が、こだわったりパッションで勝負をしたり…
とりあえず
「伝われ～！」
という思いで #絵しりとり をしたので見てくださいね！
www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPVS...
#ILLUSTCHAINER #イラストチェイナー
#女性ゲーム実況 #ゲーム実況プレイ #youtube
“Meta burned enough money this quarter to fund the state of Nebraska for 3 years” is a somewhat regular headline and nobody bats an eye because I guess people don’t expect Meta to earn money and Meta offloads their debt to SPVs
December 12, 2025 at 4:54 AM
“Meta burned enough money this quarter to fund the state of Nebraska for 3 years” is a somewhat regular headline and nobody bats an eye because I guess people don’t expect Meta to earn money and Meta offloads their debt to SPVs
I'm a bit concerned about how many weirdo SPVs they're doing on top of obvious capex
December 11, 2025 at 4:47 PM
I'm a bit concerned about how many weirdo SPVs they're doing on top of obvious capex
"Bubble or Nothing" is ALSO featured on NPR's @marketplace.org.
Really enjoyed chatting about "neoclouds" and "private credit" and "SPVs."
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
Really enjoyed chatting about "neoclouds" and "private credit" and "SPVs."
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
If the AI bubble were to burst, these terms will be oft heard
Here are three AI bubble terms you may want to familiarize yourself with now. You know, just in case.
www.marketplace.org
December 10, 2025 at 10:01 PM
"Bubble or Nothing" is ALSO featured on NPR's @marketplace.org.
Really enjoyed chatting about "neoclouds" and "private credit" and "SPVs."
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
Really enjoyed chatting about "neoclouds" and "private credit" and "SPVs."
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
Companies House fee hike from 1 May 2025: Confirmation Statement rises to £34. Affects all UK companies, incl. landlords & SPVs.
December 10, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Companies House fee hike from 1 May 2025: Confirmation Statement rises to £34. Affects all UK companies, incl. landlords & SPVs.
Some warning signs he's seeing:
• $1 billion seed rounds for companies with no product
• Circular deals where money flows in loops
• Vendor financing reminiscent of the telecom bubble
• SPVs hiding debt off balance sheets
• $1 billion seed rounds for companies with no product
• Circular deals where money flows in loops
• Vendor financing reminiscent of the telecom bubble
• SPVs hiding debt off balance sheets
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Some warning signs he's seeing:
• $1 billion seed rounds for companies with no product
• Circular deals where money flows in loops
• Vendor financing reminiscent of the telecom bubble
• SPVs hiding debt off balance sheets
• $1 billion seed rounds for companies with no product
• Circular deals where money flows in loops
• Vendor financing reminiscent of the telecom bubble
• SPVs hiding debt off balance sheets
@timbray I'm not clear on how you connect the SPVs to tech profits. Unless the SPVs are funded on-balance sheet, wouldn't you expect the equity investors in the SPVs to take the loss? Is the assumption that the equity trail somehow leads back to the hyperscalers? Or are you making a distinction […]
Original post on hachyderm.io
hachyderm.io
December 9, 2025 at 10:13 PM
@timbray I'm not clear on how you connect the SPVs to tech profits. Unless the SPVs are funded on-balance sheet, wouldn't you expect the equity investors in the SPVs to take the loss? Is the assumption that the equity trail somehow leads back to the hyperscalers? Or are you making a distinction […]
So, is NVIDIA doing Enron stuff? Not really. Enron was fraudulent, top to bottom, using dodgy SPVs to move around debt and marking unpaid, non-existent deals as revenue. I advise you read this so that you understand how messed up Enron was.
www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
December 8, 2025 at 5:42 PM
So, is NVIDIA doing Enron stuff? Not really. Enron was fraudulent, top to bottom, using dodgy SPVs to move around debt and marking unpaid, non-existent deals as revenue. I advise you read this so that you understand how messed up Enron was.
www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-...
We're already seeing clear signs that data center debt is becoming harder to raise, with TeraWulf's new data center project requiring a $3bn backstop from Google, and Applied Digital's CoreWeave data center debt sale raising major concerns from investors.
www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-...
www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-...
![This deal is also peculiar because Meta did something called a "residual value guarantee," meaning that it will pay off the bonds in the event it chooses to walk away from the project.
SPVs can be used to shield a company from liability, or to reduce their obligations from a project or an investment, but that doesn’t seem to be the case here!
Payment terms vary, but in the case of CoreWeave, its various Delayed Draw Term Loans are paid quarterly, and I imagine that's similar to the terms that just about anybody else building a data center will face, though the percentage rate on financing also varies based on the strength of the counterparty (say, Meta or Microsoft as the potential person leasing the space, as is the case with Nebius and CoreWeave). That’s why CoreWeave's $2.6 Billion DDTL 3.0 facility was priced at around 8.4% (SOFR of 4.4% plus 4%) and Applied Digital's $2.35 billion debt offering was priced at 9.25% in November, with, unsurprisingly, proceeds from the offering to "fund a portion of the construction and associated expenses" of multiple data centers.
So, Applied Digital is a data center company owned by multiple hedge funds and private firms, including Blackrock, which absolutely fucking loves data centers and has been a part of multiple different CoreWeave debt financing rounds, and you'll be surprised to learn that CoreWeave has multiple leases with Applied Digital to provide compute to companies like OpenAI, Google (for OpenAI), Meta and Microsoft (for OpenAI).
You're probably sitting there and saying "damn, that seems unstable!" And my friend, it only gets more unstabler from there! A piece from Bloomberg about Applied Digital's $2.35 billion deal from a few weeks ago said that the deal "is lacking the fervor investors showed in recent transactions for TeraWulf Inc. (a former Bitcoin miner renting [capacity] to Fluidstack, yet another neocloud) and Cipher Mining Inc. (a former Bitcoin miner) — which relied on a backstop of Google parent Alph…](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qc6xzgctorfsm35w6i3vdebx/bafkreifeq46kizijblvkosoafqccmwvq3fpdzzuuk3rhjsxhi4jxi4dkee@jpeg)
![The transactions in question are a $3.2 billion debt deal for TeraWulf (backstopped up to $3.2 billion by Google, which also took a 14% stake) at 7.75%, and Cipher Mining's $1.4 billion, 7.125% deal (due in 2030) to construct a "high-performance computing data center in Texas" with its initial leases also backstopped (as in financially guaranteed) by Google.
Eagle-eyed readers will look at this and say "$1.4 billion? That doesn't seem like it'll be enough for a data center!" and you're right! Cipher apparently has a lease for 168MW of IT load at "approximately $3 billion in contracted revenue," but with the caveat that the "expected delivery of 168MW of Critical IT Load [is to be delivered] by September 2026."
Cleanspark, yet another fucking crypto miner, is also planning to pivot to AI and raise $1.15 billion to both "develop AI and HPC facilities" and repurchase $460 million in stock from investors.
Every single data center deal you've read about is funded by debt, and in many cases the parties leasing those data centers are also funded by debt or venture capital, something I'll get to in a little bit.
I also want to be clear: these are, in some cases, best guesses! I'm gonna give you my underlying thought process too.
Here's the first scenario. And to be clear, these scenarios might not happen one after another...though I think there's a chance they might.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qc6xzgctorfsm35w6i3vdebx/bafkreidf5l2linl5wvqj3yijrz66grsce2fj2ilx5al4umdhqc5ext6w7e@jpeg)
December 5, 2025 at 5:36 PM
We're already seeing clear signs that data center debt is becoming harder to raise, with TeraWulf's new data center project requiring a $3bn backstop from Google, and Applied Digital's CoreWeave data center debt sale raising major concerns from investors.
www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-...
www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-...
Wasn't the accusation that their customers were using SPVs to hide their debt?
November 25, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Wasn't the accusation that their customers were using SPVs to hide their debt?
Stock valuation inflated? Definitely. And some of those SPVs will implode, if not most. But they are doing it with full transparency, and investors just being irrational (as usual).
November 25, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Stock valuation inflated? Definitely. And some of those SPVs will implode, if not most. But they are doing it with full transparency, and investors just being irrational (as usual).
Also, I'm sure you could make some actual useful distinctions, but the SPVs are absolutely to obscure spending and inflate revenue..like, if they aren't then it's not clear why they exist at all.
November 25, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Also, I'm sure you could make some actual useful distinctions, but the SPVs are absolutely to obscure spending and inflate revenue..like, if they aren't then it's not clear why they exist at all.
Well, at least we know they’re hiding their debt by means other than SPVs.
November 25, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Well, at least we know they’re hiding their debt by means other than SPVs.
It absolutely is Enron, all these companies are shifting their huge debt financing off corporate books so they can make the books look better to get more financing. Putting the assets and revenues on the books and tucking all the liabilities away in individual spvs, classic horseshit
November 25, 2025 at 1:59 AM
It absolutely is Enron, all these companies are shifting their huge debt financing off corporate books so they can make the books look better to get more financing. Putting the assets and revenues on the books and tucking all the liabilities away in individual spvs, classic horseshit
Poor #LucentTechnologies get's no respect in the annals of the late 90s SPVs accounting frauds. AND It's CEO went on to destroy #HP via a merger with #Compaq. 👹🐑
In the memo, “Nvidia also responds to claims that the ‘current situation is analogous to historical accounting frauds (Enron, WorldCom, Lucent) that featured vendor financing and SPVs [special purpose vehicles.)’”
@barrons.com $NVDA
@firstadopter.bsky.social
www.barrons.com/articles/nvi...
@barrons.com $NVDA
@firstadopter.bsky.social
www.barrons.com/articles/nvi...
November 25, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Poor #LucentTechnologies get's no respect in the annals of the late 90s SPVs accounting frauds. AND It's CEO went on to destroy #HP via a merger with #Compaq. 👹🐑