Trump is still the charismatic leader and driver of the MAGA movement.

Yet, ambitious Republican politicians are already jockeying to inherit his base.

History and academic research suggest that replacing a charismatic leader is hard, and that they’ll struggle to replicate his appeal.

4) Be wary of claims that these 2025 election results were mainly about persuasion or voters changing their minds.

Turnout was likely an import part of the story (see @electproject.bsky.social ->
bsky.app/profile/elec...)

3) Given his unpopularity, watch for “gambling for resurrection” behavior in foreign policy. He and his advisors may try to escalate or manufacture crises to distract or recover his political support. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamblin...

And at home, expect increased repression.

2) Coordinating a broad, pro-democracy movement is *hard*.

But these results matter. They signal to both the public and political elites that Trump is vulnerable and they help galvanize opposition. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Exactly, those two things will definitely influence each other. Public opinion is one of the few checks right now.

This previous paper had been my guide europepmc.org/article/ppr/...

My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place

Awesome—huge congrats and well-deserved! 👏

That’s a fair point. I see social media as downstream of these other effects (elite behavior and wealth concentration). And may amplify these things (giving a bigger megaphone), but it’s not the primary cause.

Exactly this ^ 💯

I’m a cautious optimist by nature.

As bleak as things sometimes feel, and as hard as coordination can be, success begets success. More people speak up, more people stand up for democratic values, and it becomes a virtuous cycle.

Coordination is hard. Broad-based, pro-democracy coalitions are really hard.

Yet, I’ve still been deeply disappointed by civil society—especially CEOs who’ve stayed silent even as their core business are threatened.

But I’ve also been encouraged by the boldness of some local and state leaders.