Are those what became these plots? The TC real-time model products are severely underrated imo

Just earned a block, sorry

Aaaand I was immediately blocked for this quote-retweet. Really weird behavior, lol

These are important constraints and many people discussed these during the previous hurricane season. I would say it's mildly concerning that a scientist would recognize these issues and proceed to use the model regardless as the basis of their forecast, but that's just my opinion.

With MDR SSTs exceeding virtually every year in the historical record in 2024, it shouldn't be surprising that the model spit out an unusually high value. This is *exacerbated* by AGW, as the model uses mean SSTs out to 2007, as opposed to anomalies!

On the bright side, I guess this is some free extra-early public commentary to help guide future improvements :)

Out of curiosity -- what's the process of developing these new graphics? Do they come about by recommendations of social scientists primarily or forecasters? I know meteorologist do a lot on the communications side but at the end of the day, that's not really the degree's expertise.

Do you have a version without the paywall?

Closest to band 7 today -- it would be cool if you could visualize these with more modern colortables and whatnot but I don't think the actual data files are extant (or at least don't exist in a format that can easily be read)

Shortwave right? It says 3.4-4.2 microns

From what I was told, the NHC will be using Gulf of Mexico until given some sort of notice or directive to make the switch to Gulf of America (which they anticipate to be coming in the next few weeks).

Not sure what the SPC is doing or if this is just a forecaster going rogue to spark controversy…

Seems like it comes down to where the NPAC jet deposits a ridge in some regards (is it in the Gulf of Alaska poleward or the Western US/near the coast?). We'll see how this plays out but with the MJO crossing into the Pacific, I'd probably lean towards the ECMWF knowing the GFS's habits here.

(This is going to sound really silly) I didn’t know about Lily until a month ago or so when I had a dream about a storm of that sort in the Central Atlantic in December which meandered for quite some time and got rather strong. @1900hurricane.bsky.social helped me identify it as Lily lol

Right now, home in the Oranges for winter break, but only until the first week of January lol

And not because I expect this to overperform...

Fully expecting this to be the largest snowstorm I experience this year