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Halbeerz

@halz.bsky.social

April 16, 2025 at 7:44 PM

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gtlt.bsky.social

@gtlt.bsky.social

They're fucking vibe coding the global economy

April 3, 2025 at 2:05 AM

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Amy Hoy

@amyhoy.bsky.social

guess where they got their weird trade deficit math from?

i went to the pit for y'all and brought back the screenshots with alt text

chatgpt log:

What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%.
Reasoned about trade tariffs and deficits for 10 seconds v
A straightforward (if naïve) method is to set the tariff rate for each trading partner equal to the percentage share of the trade deficit relative to that country's total imports-always no less than 10%. In formula form:
Tariff Rate (%) = max(10, (Trade Deficit ÷ Total Imports) *
100)
For example, if the US runs a $20 billion deficit on $100 billion worth of imports from a country, the calculated rate is (20/100)×100 = 20%. If the deficit were only 5%, you'd still impose a 10% floor.
This method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade-such as elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances-but it provides a blunt, proportional rule to "level the playing field." One might implement it in Python like so:

[code]

Gemini answer:

Okay, let's break down the idea of using tariffs to achieve an "even playing field" defined as eliminating the US trade deficit.
While the goal of balancing trade is understandable, devising an "easy way" to calculate tariffs to achieve this is extremely complex, and most economists would argue it's not feasible or desirable for several reasons.
However, let's outline a highly simplified conceptual approach based only on the numbers, ignoring the vast real-world complexities and consequences:
Simplified (and Problematic) Calculation Idea:
1. Identify the Bilateral Deficit: Determine the trade deficit the US has with a specific country (Country X).
Deficit_X = Value of Imports from X - Value of
• Exports to X
2. Target Reduction: The goal is to reduce imports from Country X (or increase their cost to US buyers) by the amount of the deficit, so that the value effectively balances out.
3. Calculate Required Tariff (Ignoring Economics):
• If you assume, very unrealistically, that a tariff directly reduces the value of imports by a corresponding percentage (which it doesn't
- it increases the price), you could try:
Required Reduction % = Deficit_X / Value of
• Imports from X

Claude:

What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%.
To calculate tariffs that could theoretically level the playing field for trade deficits, I'd suggest a straightforward approach based on the trade imbalance percentage:
1. Calculate the bilateral trade deficit with each trading partner: Trade Deficit - US Imports from Country - US
Exports to Country
2. Express this as a percentage of total bilateral trade: Deficit Percentage - (Trade Deficit / Total Bilateral Trade) × 100
3. Apply a tariff rate that corresponds to this percentage, with
your minimum 10% floor: Tariff Rate = max(Deficit
Percentage, 10%)
This creates a proportional response where countries with larger trade surpluses with the US would face higher tariffs.
For example:
• If Country A has a 25% trade surplus with the US (meaning the US has a 25% deficit), apply a 25% tariff
• If Country B has a 5% trade surplus with the US, apply the minimum 10% tariff
This method is relatively simple to calculate and directly ties tariff levels to trade imbalances. However, I should note that economists generally caution that trade deficits alone don't necessarily indicate unfair trade practices, and tariffs can have complex economic consequences including increased consumer prices and potential retaliation.
Would you like me to elaborate on any part of this approach or discuss potential refinements to make it more sophisticated?

Grok:

the deficit. The deficit as a percentage of total trade is
$295B/$582B = 50.69%. Using the formula Tariff% = 10% +
(Deficit% × Scaling Factor), we choose a scaling factor of 50 for illustration:
• Tariff = 10% + (50.69% × 50) = 10% + 25.345% = 35.345%, rounded to 35.3%.
This means a 35.3% tariff on Chinese goods could be proposed to offset the imbalance, aiming to reduce imports and encourage domestic production or exports.
Extending to Other Countries
To provide a broader view, here's a table of top US trading partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency):

[data table headings]
Country

Deficit
(USD
Billion)

Total
Trade
(USD
Billion)
Deficit %

Calculate d Tariff %

China
-295
582
50.69%
35.3%

Mexico
-172
840
20.48%
20.2%

Vietnam
-123
(Data incomplet e, estimate)
~30%
25.0%

Ireland
-87
(Data incomplet e, estimate)
~25%
22.5%

Germany
-85
(Data incomplete estimate)
~20%
20.0%

April 3, 2025 at 12:42 AM

windhamg.bsky.social

@windhamg.bsky.social

All so a few billionaires can add to their hordes of wealth they already couldn’t spend in a hundred lifetimes.

RFK Jr. Plans 10,000 Job Cuts in Major Restructuring of Health Department

The changes would reshape the nation’s health agencies and close regional offices.

www.wsj.com

April 2, 2025 at 4:38 PM

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Tim Onion

@bencollins.bsky.social

*gazes wistfully out a window*

Marine Le Pen Found Guilty of Embezzlement, Banned From Next Elections

Judges convicted the far-right leader of misusing EU funds and barred her from running in the 2027 French presidential elections.

www.wsj.com

March 31, 2025 at 2:56 PM

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Brandon Friedman

@brandonfriedman.bsky.social

I am begging blue state governors to have lunch this week with your adjutant general of the National Guard.

Cannot stress enough how important this relationship is going to be in the near future.

March 16, 2025 at 10:52 PM

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Deepta Bhattacharya

@deeptabhattacha.bsky.social

When in this progression will we be told to start watering our crops with Brawndo?

kffhealthnews.org/news/article...

Scientists Say NIH Officials Told Them To Scrub mRNA References on Grants - KFF Health News

Two senior scientists say National Institutes of Health officials advised them to remove references to mRNA vaccines in grant applications, and they fear the Trump administration will abandon a promis...

kffhealthnews.org

March 17, 2025 at 3:37 AM

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Brandon Friedman

@brandonfriedman.bsky.social

This is blood-boiling. Charles Rogers was awarded the Medal of Honor in Vietnam after being wounded three times leading the defense of a position.

Google his name and the entry below comes up. When you click, you'll see the page has been deleted and the URL changed to include "DEI medal."

Wikipedia image of Major General (Ret.) Charles C. Rogers

Defense.gov google return: Medal of Honor Monday: Army Maj. Gen. Charles Calvin Rogers

https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/Story/Article/2824721/deimedal-of-honor-monday-army-maj-gen-charles-calvin-rogers/

March 16, 2025 at 2:25 AM

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Mehdi Hasan

@mehdirhasan.bsky.social

Per Dr Atul Gawande, ex USAID: “All malaria supplies protecting 53 million people, mostly children, including bed nets, diagnostics, preventive drugs, and treatments – terminated.”

There are no words that sufficiently describe this level of cruelty and sadism.

February 28, 2025 at 5:16 AM

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Invictus

@brit-out-of-water.bsky.social

Trump messing with the postal service again? Just a reminder that his last ‘reform’ was slowing down mail right before an election where millions voted by mail. If he gets his hands on it again, expect your ballot to arrive sometime in 2037. #usps

February 21, 2025 at 2:11 AM

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dan sinker

@dansinker.com

No they're not. They know exactly what they're voting for: The continued dismantling of our public health system. That's what they want. You know this. Why do we have to do this playacting goldfish brain shit every time.

The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · Feb 13

By voting to confirm RFK Jr., the Senate “is wagering the future of our public health system on a prayer that a conspiracy theorist can build back up the agencies that he and his supporters have spent years breaking down,” Nicholas Florko writes.

RFK Jr. Won. Now What?

America’s health is in the hands of an anti-vaccine conspiracist.

www.theatlantic.com

February 13, 2025 at 5:04 PM

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Mark Zaid, Esq

@markzaidesq.bsky.social

The United States could absolutely start helping Palestinians in Gaza with removing Hamas & rebuilding the area, even help with future tourism, but ..... wait, sorry, we just lost our key foreign aid organization. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...