Will Royce
@willroyce.bsky.social
Researcher. Writing about the administration of the welfare state @ willroyce.substack.com
Spoiler alert, but the answer is basically: (1) no one knows for sure, need more data; (2) definitely not the labor market; (3) probably DOGE
November 24, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Spoiler alert, but the answer is basically: (1) no one knows for sure, need more data; (2) definitely not the labor market; (3) probably DOGE
New post, in which I finally answer the question on everybody's mind: Why Are Disability Claims Down?
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
November 24, 2025 at 5:24 PM
New post, in which I finally answer the question on everybody's mind: Why Are Disability Claims Down?
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
Poverty is a common, often temporary experience — though more common and less temporary for some
November 3, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Poverty is a common, often temporary experience — though more common and less temporary for some
Does anyone know how someone could go from being on Medicare to being uninsured? (Besides being a data error)
November 3, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Does anyone know how someone could go from being on Medicare to being uninsured? (Besides being a data error)
Here's a cool chart that I didn't include in the post
November 3, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Here's a cool chart that I didn't include in the post
Some things to keep in mind
November 3, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Some things to keep in mind
On The Everything App, you get 11k retweets for saying that SNAP spending went up under Biden because of illegal immigration.
Real answer: we increased benefit amounts during COVID, starting under Trump. Not the greatest information environment over there.
Real answer: we increased benefit amounts during COVID, starting under Trump. Not the greatest information environment over there.
October 31, 2025 at 8:29 PM
On The Everything App, you get 11k retweets for saying that SNAP spending went up under Biden because of illegal immigration.
Real answer: we increased benefit amounts during COVID, starting under Trump. Not the greatest information environment over there.
Real answer: we increased benefit amounts during COVID, starting under Trump. Not the greatest information environment over there.
@ lawmakers please start thinking about the next Comptroller General www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
October 21, 2025 at 2:27 PM
@ lawmakers please start thinking about the next Comptroller General www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
Seam bias is killing me
October 20, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Seam bias is killing me
Something I found out while doing research for this is that bonuses are particularly large/common in March. Didn't know that. Kinda interesting.
October 14, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Something I found out while doing research for this is that bonuses are particularly large/common in March. Didn't know that. Kinda interesting.
Also some larger issues: Among ABAWDs who were on Medicaid for all of 2023 and had *average* monthly earnings that satisfied OBBBA work requirements, 25% failed to satisfy work requirements in at least one month of the year.
October 14, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Also some larger issues: Among ABAWDs who were on Medicaid for all of 2023 and had *average* monthly earnings that satisfied OBBBA work requirements, 25% failed to satisfy work requirements in at least one month of the year.
I wrote about a small, dumb issue with work requirements. States should avoid measuring work hours just at the level of the *calendar* month, since, you know, one month is shorter than the others. willroyce.substack.com/p/work-requi...
October 14, 2025 at 6:37 PM
I wrote about a small, dumb issue with work requirements. States should avoid measuring work hours just at the level of the *calendar* month, since, you know, one month is shorter than the others. willroyce.substack.com/p/work-requi...
Always funny to get updates from DOGE
October 6, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Always funny to get updates from DOGE
Apparently I accidentally stole the color scheme for my Substack from Baker McKenzie
October 3, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Apparently I accidentally stole the color scheme for my Substack from Baker McKenzie
Really interesting story in @404media.co on how lawyers explain themselves when they are caught using AI-hallucinated citations www.404media.co/18-lawyers-c...
September 30, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Really interesting story in @404media.co on how lawyers explain themselves when they are caught using AI-hallucinated citations www.404media.co/18-lawyers-c...
Thankfully we have 37 years to address this, assuming 2% inflation
September 29, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Thankfully we have 37 years to address this, assuming 2% inflation
One weird trick to getting your insured unemployment rate down, and thereby making it unlikely that extended benefits will trigger in your state: Administer unemployment benefits as a lump sum rather than a weekly payment. (Or just cut the duration of benefits. That works too.)
September 29, 2025 at 1:58 PM
One weird trick to getting your insured unemployment rate down, and thereby making it unlikely that extended benefits will trigger in your state: Administer unemployment benefits as a lump sum rather than a weekly payment. (Or just cut the duration of benefits. That works too.)
New HSGAC D staff report: DOGE had armed security at SSA. Per officials cited in the report, this was because "some DOGE staff felt threatened based on a communication with an SSA employee that 'included cursing.'"
But when cmte staff viewed the DOGE workspace, it was empty—DOGE worked remotely.
But when cmte staff viewed the DOGE workspace, it was empty—DOGE worked remotely.
September 25, 2025 at 6:31 PM
New HSGAC D staff report: DOGE had armed security at SSA. Per officials cited in the report, this was because "some DOGE staff felt threatened based on a communication with an SSA employee that 'included cursing.'"
But when cmte staff viewed the DOGE workspace, it was empty—DOGE worked remotely.
But when cmte staff viewed the DOGE workspace, it was empty—DOGE worked remotely.
why did they remove the greatest hits :(
September 10, 2025 at 12:10 PM
why did they remove the greatest hits :(
my update tracker for DOGE dot gov seems to suggest that the updates will not converge to real time
September 10, 2025 at 12:09 PM
my update tracker for DOGE dot gov seems to suggest that the updates will not converge to real time
definitely am left wondering to what extent this divergence is real
September 5, 2025 at 6:50 PM
definitely am left wondering to what extent this divergence is real
This is currently reflecting my lived experience
September 4, 2025 at 5:27 PM
This is currently reflecting my lived experience
In the Bay Area and just went to check out this restaurant and ????
August 30, 2025 at 8:06 PM
In the Bay Area and just went to check out this restaurant and ????