Will Royce
@willroyce.bsky.social
Researcher. Writing about the administration of the welfare state @ willroyce.substack.com
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Will Royce
@willroyce.bsky.social
· Sep 28
Presenting MAKESHIFT ARRANGEMENTS
A newsletter about the administration of the welfare state.
willroyce.substack.com
I'm starting a newsletter (ik, ik) focused on the administration of the welfare state. It's called Makeshift Arrangements, which is a reference to my favorite Frances Perkins quote. First full piece out tomorrow.
Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.
Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.
New post, in which I finally answer the question on everybody's mind: Why Are Disability Claims Down?
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
November 24, 2025 at 5:24 PM
New post, in which I finally answer the question on everybody's mind: Why Are Disability Claims Down?
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
Re: the provisions that prevent RIFs for the duration of the CR, any reason Trump admin won't contest that in court? Is that a thing that has been done before? Difficult to see how an admin that argues impoundments are lawful would accede to limits on their ability to fire fed workers?
November 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Re: the provisions that prevent RIFs for the duration of the CR, any reason Trump admin won't contest that in court? Is that a thing that has been done before? Difficult to see how an admin that argues impoundments are lawful would accede to limits on their ability to fire fed workers?
Reposted by Will Royce
New work requirements for Medicaid are expected to leave millions of Americans uninsured. For Equifax, which charges states steep prices for its trove of employment data, it is a business opportunity.
‘A Big Positive’: How One Company Plans to Profit From Medicaid Cuts
New work requirements are expected to leave millions of poor Americans uninsured. For Equifax, which charges states steep prices for its trove of employment data, it is a business opportunity.
nyti.ms
November 4, 2025 at 12:20 AM
New work requirements for Medicaid are expected to leave millions of Americans uninsured. For Equifax, which charges states steep prices for its trove of employment data, it is a business opportunity.
Poverty is a common, often temporary experience — though more common and less temporary for some
November 3, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Poverty is a common, often temporary experience — though more common and less temporary for some
Some things to keep in mind
November 3, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Some things to keep in mind
Reposted by Will Royce
-Sep 30: USDA releases guidance saying they can use contingency fund
-Oct 10: USDA tells states to prepare for lapse
-Oct 23: USDA deletes guidance saying they can use contingency fund
-Oct 24: USDA says it can’t use contingency fund
-Oct 31: Courts tell USDA to release funds
-Nov 1: no funds go out
-Oct 10: USDA tells states to prepare for lapse
-Oct 23: USDA deletes guidance saying they can use contingency fund
-Oct 24: USDA says it can’t use contingency fund
-Oct 31: Courts tell USDA to release funds
-Nov 1: no funds go out
November 3, 2025 at 2:31 PM
-Sep 30: USDA releases guidance saying they can use contingency fund
-Oct 10: USDA tells states to prepare for lapse
-Oct 23: USDA deletes guidance saying they can use contingency fund
-Oct 24: USDA says it can’t use contingency fund
-Oct 31: Courts tell USDA to release funds
-Nov 1: no funds go out
-Oct 10: USDA tells states to prepare for lapse
-Oct 23: USDA deletes guidance saying they can use contingency fund
-Oct 24: USDA says it can’t use contingency fund
-Oct 31: Courts tell USDA to release funds
-Nov 1: no funds go out
new post
The Bathtub Model of Everything
Statuses, not characteristics.
willroyce.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:30 AM
new post
Reposted by Will Royce
The Good Samaritan, by Joseph Highmore, 1744, 📸 by @patricksmith04
November 2, 2025 at 4:49 AM
The Good Samaritan, by Joseph Highmore, 1744, 📸 by @patricksmith04
On The Everything App, you get 11k retweets for saying that SNAP spending went up under Biden because of illegal immigration.
Real answer: we increased benefit amounts during COVID, starting under Trump. Not the greatest information environment over there.
Real answer: we increased benefit amounts during COVID, starting under Trump. Not the greatest information environment over there.
October 31, 2025 at 8:29 PM
On The Everything App, you get 11k retweets for saying that SNAP spending went up under Biden because of illegal immigration.
Real answer: we increased benefit amounts during COVID, starting under Trump. Not the greatest information environment over there.
Real answer: we increased benefit amounts during COVID, starting under Trump. Not the greatest information environment over there.
Reposted by Will Royce
The Fed lacks gold-standard data that inform its monetary policy decisions, due to the shutdown.
They had a secret deal with ADP for granular private data.
But a Fed governor revealed the collaboration in a speech, so ADP got mad and cut the Fed off.
A laugh-before-crying story from me:
They had a secret deal with ADP for granular private data.
But a Fed governor revealed the collaboration in a speech, so ADP got mad and cut the Fed off.
A laugh-before-crying story from me:
Fed Making Key Economic Decisions Without Key Economic Data - The American Prospect
The Fed considers information from a variety of sources in setting monetary policy, everything from anecdotal reports to original data produced by its regional Reserve Banks. But the loss of public, a...
prospect.org
October 21, 2025 at 1:21 PM
The Fed lacks gold-standard data that inform its monetary policy decisions, due to the shutdown.
They had a secret deal with ADP for granular private data.
But a Fed governor revealed the collaboration in a speech, so ADP got mad and cut the Fed off.
A laugh-before-crying story from me:
They had a secret deal with ADP for granular private data.
But a Fed governor revealed the collaboration in a speech, so ADP got mad and cut the Fed off.
A laugh-before-crying story from me:
@ lawmakers please start thinking about the next Comptroller General www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
October 21, 2025 at 2:27 PM
@ lawmakers please start thinking about the next Comptroller General www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
Seam bias is killing me
October 20, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Seam bias is killing me
Something I found out while doing research for this is that bonuses are particularly large/common in March. Didn't know that. Kinda interesting.
October 14, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Something I found out while doing research for this is that bonuses are particularly large/common in March. Didn't know that. Kinda interesting.
I wrote about a small, dumb issue with work requirements. States should avoid measuring work hours just at the level of the *calendar* month, since, you know, one month is shorter than the others. willroyce.substack.com/p/work-requi...
October 14, 2025 at 6:37 PM
I wrote about a small, dumb issue with work requirements. States should avoid measuring work hours just at the level of the *calendar* month, since, you know, one month is shorter than the others. willroyce.substack.com/p/work-requi...
Reposted by Will Royce
Reports raise red flags: Georgia spent $54M on admin costs for its #Medicaid waiver, nearly twice the $26M spent on care, while enrolling under 3,500 people. CMS still extended the costly program that ties coverage to work requirements. www.cbpp.org/research/fed...
CMS Extends Georgia’s Medicaid Waiver Program, Despite GAO Report Raising Concerns with Costs | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
September 23, 2025: A new report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) raising concerns about the cost of Georgia’s Pathways to Coverage Medicaid waiver program is a forewarning about how ex...
www.cbpp.org
October 6, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Reports raise red flags: Georgia spent $54M on admin costs for its #Medicaid waiver, nearly twice the $26M spent on care, while enrolling under 3,500 people. CMS still extended the costly program that ties coverage to work requirements. www.cbpp.org/research/fed...
Always funny to get updates from DOGE
October 6, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Always funny to get updates from DOGE
Apparently I accidentally stole the color scheme for my Substack from Baker McKenzie
October 3, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Apparently I accidentally stole the color scheme for my Substack from Baker McKenzie
Reposted by Will Royce
% of US men under 30 who say legal sports betting is a *bad thing* for society
22% in 2022
47% in 2025
No other demographic group has seen a bigger increase.
22% in 2022
47% in 2025
No other demographic group has seen a bigger increase.
Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society and sports
Today, 43% of U.S. adults say the fact that sports betting is now legal in much of the country is a bad thing for society, up from 34% in 2022.
www.pewresearch.org
October 2, 2025 at 4:19 PM
% of US men under 30 who say legal sports betting is a *bad thing* for society
22% in 2022
47% in 2025
No other demographic group has seen a bigger increase.
22% in 2022
47% in 2025
No other demographic group has seen a bigger increase.
Reposted by Will Royce
NEW
US labor market flows remained sluggish in August, as hiring slowed to the lowest level since early COVID
The hiring rate fell to 3.2%, layoffs fell to 1.1%, quits fell to 1.9%, and job openings rose to 4.3%
US labor market flows remained sluggish in August, as hiring slowed to the lowest level since early COVID
The hiring rate fell to 3.2%, layoffs fell to 1.1%, quits fell to 1.9%, and job openings rose to 4.3%
September 30, 2025 at 2:06 PM
NEW
US labor market flows remained sluggish in August, as hiring slowed to the lowest level since early COVID
The hiring rate fell to 3.2%, layoffs fell to 1.1%, quits fell to 1.9%, and job openings rose to 4.3%
US labor market flows remained sluggish in August, as hiring slowed to the lowest level since early COVID
The hiring rate fell to 3.2%, layoffs fell to 1.1%, quits fell to 1.9%, and job openings rose to 4.3%
Really interesting story in @404media.co on how lawyers explain themselves when they are caught using AI-hallucinated citations www.404media.co/18-lawyers-c...
September 30, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Really interesting story in @404media.co on how lawyers explain themselves when they are caught using AI-hallucinated citations www.404media.co/18-lawyers-c...
It would be really funny (tragic) if the max SSI benefit amount surpassed $2,000 without Congress altering the asset limit. An SSI beneficiary would presumably be made ineligible for SSI benefits upon receiving them.
September 29, 2025 at 6:14 PM
It would be really funny (tragic) if the max SSI benefit amount surpassed $2,000 without Congress altering the asset limit. An SSI beneficiary would presumably be made ineligible for SSI benefits upon receiving them.
Reposted by Will Royce
A government shutdown is looming.
If it happens, the nation’s top nutrition program for low-income moms and babies will run out of $$ within days.
Story for @politico.com w/ Rachel Shin
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
If it happens, the nation’s top nutrition program for low-income moms and babies will run out of $$ within days.
Story for @politico.com w/ Rachel Shin
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
POLITICO Pro: Shutdown would impact nutrition benefits for moms, babies within days
A signature program that serves millions of people may run out of money in one week. The White House says it could be even faster than that.
subscriber.politicopro.com
September 29, 2025 at 3:02 PM
A government shutdown is looming.
If it happens, the nation’s top nutrition program for low-income moms and babies will run out of $$ within days.
Story for @politico.com w/ Rachel Shin
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
If it happens, the nation’s top nutrition program for low-income moms and babies will run out of $$ within days.
Story for @politico.com w/ Rachel Shin
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
One weird trick to getting your insured unemployment rate down, and thereby making it unlikely that extended benefits will trigger in your state: Administer unemployment benefits as a lump sum rather than a weekly payment. (Or just cut the duration of benefits. That works too.)
September 29, 2025 at 1:58 PM
One weird trick to getting your insured unemployment rate down, and thereby making it unlikely that extended benefits will trigger in your state: Administer unemployment benefits as a lump sum rather than a weekly payment. (Or just cut the duration of benefits. That works too.)
The "insured unemployment rate" is a strange metric to use for automatically extending unemployment benefits. But that's exactly what we do. I wrote about it. Lots of charts, if you're into that sort of thing.
The Weird Way We Automatically Extend Unemployment Benefits
The “insured unemployment rate” plays an important role in our unemployment insurance system. Should it?
willroyce.substack.com
September 29, 2025 at 1:37 PM
The "insured unemployment rate" is a strange metric to use for automatically extending unemployment benefits. But that's exactly what we do. I wrote about it. Lots of charts, if you're into that sort of thing.
I'm starting a newsletter (ik, ik) focused on the administration of the welfare state. It's called Makeshift Arrangements, which is a reference to my favorite Frances Perkins quote. First full piece out tomorrow.
Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.
Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.
Presenting MAKESHIFT ARRANGEMENTS
A newsletter about the administration of the welfare state.
willroyce.substack.com
September 28, 2025 at 3:24 PM
I'm starting a newsletter (ik, ik) focused on the administration of the welfare state. It's called Makeshift Arrangements, which is a reference to my favorite Frances Perkins quote. First full piece out tomorrow.
Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.
Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.