I don't think we should have every scenario that we assess being a scenario where emissions go down.

We are not heading for the super high-end SSP5-85, but that does not mean emissions are following SSP2-45 as many assume.

We need to explore the uncertainties on where we are heading much more.

5/

Other points:
* The IEA should have found another name, "Reversed Policies Scenario" or "Stalled Policies Scenario"?
* Have we, at a statistical significant level, deviated from the IEA pre-Paris baseline?
* The CPS is not that different to the STEPS...

6/6

Have been saying this for ages. An as yet undetermined % of Tory voters are anxious about Farage / Reform. How they vote at the next GE could determine the outcome.

Suppose we got more good news over the next few years, which I think is perfectly possible... What we seem to have learned is that it will quite quickly come under pressure to be used on tax or spend.

Now, as a voter I can quite see that as good. But it surely isn't what these bond buyers want 3/

Facing three stakeholder groups - the gilts, the spending side, the tax side - the promise to prioritise fiscal stability has to mean that when some good news comes up, the first of these gets some priority. This week suggests it doesn't, compared to pressure on the other two 2/

43. Data centers are increasing power demand, but let's keep a sense of proportion. BNEF estimates total electricity demand from data centers of 373TWh in 2024 (1.2% of global generation) and expects this to increase to 1,596TWh (4.4% of global) in 2035. (www.bnef.com/themes/t0hlz... )

40. There are signs that solar is reducing fossil fuel burn in poorer countries, for example Pakistan — which has no significant government support for solar but has built over 25GW just in response to high prices for power and fuel for irrigation.

38. Ordinary people have no idea how much progress we’ve made. Tell people at parties that UK carbon emissions in 2023 were at their lowest level since 1879, for example. Most developed economies are now reducing carbon emissions without lowering quality of life.

36. We’re finally getting serious about net zero carbon. Getting that last 5-20% of carbon out of power will be hard, and require some expensive solutions. The first 80-95% is easy-ish but we're getting on with it.

30. Decarbonizing aviation is really hard. The CEO of Lufthansa said in 2023 that running its fleet on sustainable aviation fuel made from electricity would take half Germany’s current electricity demand. BNEF thinks this an underestimate.

25. To put it another way: when you tell an energy future model to optimise a power portfolio for clean power adequacy, it will give you more wind and less solar than when you tell it to optimise a least-cost electricity sector development.

24. We oughtta be building more wind. Seriously, solar will get built anyway, but wind needs some help, and wind blows in the dark and in the winter. It doesn’t help that solar pushes down power prices and generates renewable energy credits (where relevant), which hurts wind farm economics.