Valuations
@valuations.bsky.social
Disciplined value investing
https://valuations.substack.com/
https://valuations.substack.com/
I think the bottom is in for this dip and we’ll make new highs by EOY. I’m also prepared to underperform in this scenario and beat myself up for generating no alpha when it was so obvious in hindsight.
November 21, 2025 at 6:08 PM
I think the bottom is in for this dip and we’ll make new highs by EOY. I’m also prepared to underperform in this scenario and beat myself up for generating no alpha when it was so obvious in hindsight.
Just had the horrible realization that Trump is going to stimulate the shit out of the lower end consumer ahead of midterms and a large portion of that is going to flow straight into the most garbage stocks and alt coins on planet earth.
November 7, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Just had the horrible realization that Trump is going to stimulate the shit out of the lower end consumer ahead of midterms and a large portion of that is going to flow straight into the most garbage stocks and alt coins on planet earth.
Spirits baggies complaining about multiple rerating from 30x to high teens. Pointing at the 5% divy like it’s a no brainer. Should be asking why it was trading at 30x in the first place.
A year ago $BTI was trading at $28 per share 6x EV/EBITDA and offering an 11% dividend yield.
A year ago $BTI was trading at $28 per share 6x EV/EBITDA and offering an 11% dividend yield.
November 7, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Spirits baggies complaining about multiple rerating from 30x to high teens. Pointing at the 5% divy like it’s a no brainer. Should be asking why it was trading at 30x in the first place.
A year ago $BTI was trading at $28 per share 6x EV/EBITDA and offering an 11% dividend yield.
A year ago $BTI was trading at $28 per share 6x EV/EBITDA and offering an 11% dividend yield.
45 product candidates in $REGN ’s pipeline but it’s still priced like Eylea and Dupixent are the entire company and every incremental dollar invested will get torched.
Time horizons getting shorter these days. Sets up great dislocations for anyone with flexibility and duration.
Time horizons getting shorter these days. Sets up great dislocations for anyone with flexibility and duration.
October 28, 2025 at 1:55 PM
45 product candidates in $REGN ’s pipeline but it’s still priced like Eylea and Dupixent are the entire company and every incremental dollar invested will get torched.
Time horizons getting shorter these days. Sets up great dislocations for anyone with flexibility and duration.
Time horizons getting shorter these days. Sets up great dislocations for anyone with flexibility and duration.
AI is cool but coffee and cocoa just hit 50 year highs right as a miracle weight loss drug became widely available after CPG staples used post-covid inflation as a smokescreen to take price above the inflation rate to boost margins and hit a ceiling leading to weak comps in ‘24.
January 8, 2025 at 11:17 AM
AI is cool but coffee and cocoa just hit 50 year highs right as a miracle weight loss drug became widely available after CPG staples used post-covid inflation as a smokescreen to take price above the inflation rate to boost margins and hit a ceiling leading to weak comps in ‘24.
The water is warm.
December 23, 2024 at 3:10 PM
The water is warm.
Party City is a good reminder that the most tempting shorts like PLTR and TSLA (bubble valuations managed by pricks, but high growth and no debt) are generally not great shorts, and the best shorts are overlevered retailers w/ high fixed costs and declining revenue.
December 22, 2024 at 1:31 PM
Party City is a good reminder that the most tempting shorts like PLTR and TSLA (bubble valuations managed by pricks, but high growth and no debt) are generally not great shorts, and the best shorts are overlevered retailers w/ high fixed costs and declining revenue.
A lot of team transitory has migrated to Bluesky but I will refrain from trolling them because this is a peaceful place.
I see a bunch of people arguing that inflation was transitory, and I don't know of a single person who in 2021 argued that 2.8% core PCE inflation at the end of 2024 would meet any definition of transitory.
December 20, 2024 at 4:00 PM
A lot of team transitory has migrated to Bluesky but I will refrain from trolling them because this is a peaceful place.
Beginning of the end for the bromance.
On CNN tonight, former Rep Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) is referring to “President Elon” and “Vice President Trump”
December 19, 2024 at 1:48 AM
Beginning of the end for the bromance.
Got long a bunch of health care today and was having some indigestion about it midday wondering if I’m underestimating possible reform… then I remembered Dr. Oz is going to be head of CMS. 😂
Nothing like price to change sentiment.
December 17, 2024 at 11:39 PM
Got long a bunch of health care today and was having some indigestion about it midday wondering if I’m underestimating possible reform… then I remembered Dr. Oz is going to be head of CMS. 😂
Currently eating a croissant from a British bakery.
Question: what the fuck??
Question: what the fuck??
December 17, 2024 at 5:25 PM
Currently eating a croissant from a British bakery.
Question: what the fuck??
Question: what the fuck??
I will never tire of CMTs and Macro dorks pointing to some meaningless N=1 data point to make a vague forecast for the next year that inevitably always implies further upside.
(The market usually goes up).
(The market usually goes up).
CANNACORD: “.. Back-to-back gains of 20% or more, although
rare, have historically led to further upside. The soft-landing environment of 1995 began
a period of four consecutive years when the SPX gained over 20% each year.”
rare, have historically led to further upside. The soft-landing environment of 1995 began
a period of four consecutive years when the SPX gained over 20% each year.”
December 12, 2024 at 12:11 PM
I will never tire of CMTs and Macro dorks pointing to some meaningless N=1 data point to make a vague forecast for the next year that inevitably always implies further upside.
(The market usually goes up).
(The market usually goes up).
They say nobody rings a bell at the top. And yet…
December 11, 2024 at 7:27 PM
They say nobody rings a bell at the top. And yet…
MDLZ takeover rumor not part of my HSY long thesis, I’m skeptical it will happen and cocoa prices still ripping higher so I sold the news. Better to be lucky than good.
As someone who likes to dunk on sell side, I have to admit after going back and reading notes on $HSY from 1H JPM did good work. That said, I think it works as a long here at $170.
December 9, 2024 at 3:35 PM
MDLZ takeover rumor not part of my HSY long thesis, I’m skeptical it will happen and cocoa prices still ripping higher so I sold the news. Better to be lucky than good.
I often think about how the most impactful course I took in college was taught by a professor who used an overhead projector instead of PowerPoint slides because he thought the slides were too distracting from the lectures.
UCLA is creating an entirely AI-generated course. Except apparently the grading won't be AI-generated. 🤔
newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/comp...
newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/comp...
Comparative lit class will be first in Humanities Division to use UCLA-developed AI system
The textbook for Zrinka Stahuljak’s winter 2025 course is generated by the Kudu platform.
newsroom.ucla.edu
December 8, 2024 at 7:38 PM
I often think about how the most impactful course I took in college was taught by a professor who used an overhead projector instead of PowerPoint slides because he thought the slides were too distracting from the lectures.
Quite the spread. ☕️
December 6, 2024 at 11:21 AM
Quite the spread. ☕️
Yikes. Our country is in a really bad place. Social media seems to have destroyed any semblance of kindness or empathy.
Today we remember the legacy of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson
December 5, 2024 at 11:42 AM
Yikes. Our country is in a really bad place. Social media seems to have destroyed any semblance of kindness or empathy.
In this edition of Things You Don’t See At The Bottom:
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
Meet the Everyday Traders Riding MicroStrategy’s Furious Rally
The software company has become a leveraged bitcoin play in the eyes of many investors.
www.wsj.com
November 28, 2024 at 11:00 AM
In this edition of Things You Don’t See At The Bottom:
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
What level of gambling addiction does one have to bet on the odds of a gambling token hitting X price at by Y date instead of just betting directly on the gambling token or swath of derivatives?
November 26, 2024 at 10:34 AM
What level of gambling addiction does one have to bet on the odds of a gambling token hitting X price at by Y date instead of just betting directly on the gambling token or swath of derivatives?
This is going to be such a long four years.
November 26, 2024 at 12:28 AM
This is going to be such a long four years.
Good day for the tax loss basket. Looks like I’ll be cutting most before we even get to EOY.
November 25, 2024 at 5:34 PM
Good day for the tax loss basket. Looks like I’ll be cutting most before we even get to EOY.
Reposted by Valuations
I don’t know who needs to hear this (me probably) but general rule of thumb is don’t press ShitCo shorts on a holiday week.
November 25, 2024 at 11:12 AM
I don’t know who needs to hear this (me probably) but general rule of thumb is don’t press ShitCo shorts on a holiday week.