Valuations
@valuations.bsky.social
Even if I miss I can’t miss.
https://valuations.substack.com/
https://valuations.substack.com/
While low, there’s a nonzero probability that Jan 6th repeats but on a much larger scale within the next 3 years. Not sure how to discount the possibility of the US military being forced to choose a side in another, grander coup attempt, but certainly does not seem priced in today.
January 8, 2026 at 12:35 PM
While low, there’s a nonzero probability that Jan 6th repeats but on a much larger scale within the next 3 years. Not sure how to discount the possibility of the US military being forced to choose a side in another, grander coup attempt, but certainly does not seem priced in today.
Masked federal agents present against the will of state representatives, harassing day care workers and shooting unarmed US citizens in the face is exactly the small government Reagan envisioned.
January 8, 2026 at 10:34 AM
Masked federal agents present against the will of state representatives, harassing day care workers and shooting unarmed US citizens in the face is exactly the small government Reagan envisioned.
I think there’s at least risk of escalation. Most likely Trump distances himself when polls drop. But not impossible local police arrest the guy and it turns into something larger. Or when midterms roll around and these goons are harassing people could get weird. But generally I agree with you.
January 8, 2026 at 12:00 AM
I think there’s at least risk of escalation. Most likely Trump distances himself when polls drop. But not impossible local police arrest the guy and it turns into something larger. Or when midterms roll around and these goons are harassing people could get weird. But generally I agree with you.
They have to arrest this POS. Wouldn’t be surprised for Trump to walk back his support after realizing how politically unpopular it will be. Trump will probably label him a bad apple and distance himself.
January 7, 2026 at 11:07 PM
They have to arrest this POS. Wouldn’t be surprised for Trump to walk back his support after realizing how politically unpopular it will be. Trump will probably label him a bad apple and distance himself.
Vol is probably too cheap.
January 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM
Vol is probably too cheap.
Is 2026 the year AI efficiency boosts margins or leaves a large swath of the upper K unemployed?
(Por que no los dos?)
(Por que no los dos?)
January 7, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Is 2026 the year AI efficiency boosts margins or leaves a large swath of the upper K unemployed?
(Por que no los dos?)
(Por que no los dos?)
The $ASTS pumpers claim it’s worth $1T, more valuable than $TMUS $T $VZ combined, but somehow the telecos (who invested or partnered w/ AST) are too stupid to recognize its inherent massive value and acquire the assets, yet a large group of retail schlubs have figured it out.
January 5, 2026 at 2:24 PM
The $ASTS pumpers claim it’s worth $1T, more valuable than $TMUS $T $VZ combined, but somehow the telecos (who invested or partnered w/ AST) are too stupid to recognize its inherent massive value and acquire the assets, yet a large group of retail schlubs have figured it out.
He’s already destroyed the brand in EU. Maybe wishful thinking but seems like his wealth, power, relevance feedback loop is on borrowed time. Everyone loves a good fall from grace, Elon’s would be great and extremely beneficial for society as a whole.
January 2, 2026 at 6:44 PM
He’s already destroyed the brand in EU. Maybe wishful thinking but seems like his wealth, power, relevance feedback loop is on borrowed time. Everyone loves a good fall from grace, Elon’s would be great and extremely beneficial for society as a whole.
If this wasn’t the mother of all meme stocks it would already be -60% from the highs. Instead it’s only -12%.
January 2, 2026 at 6:40 PM
If this wasn’t the mother of all meme stocks it would already be -60% from the highs. Instead it’s only -12%.
And you’re bullish, anon?
December 31, 2025 at 8:13 PM
And you’re bullish, anon?
Someone sent me the source of the Stankey quote. He changed it from “likely to pay extra” to “$10-$150 per month” Hennesy fund assumes $5
www.hennessyfunds.com/insights/Foc...
www.hennessyfunds.com/insights/Foc...
Portfolio Update: Position Changes and Investment Outlook for 2024 |
Hennessy Funds offers high-conviction investment strategies that can play a role in nearly every investor’s portfolio.
www.hennessyfunds.com
December 28, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Someone sent me the source of the Stankey quote. He changed it from “likely to pay extra” to “$10-$150 per month” Hennesy fund assumes $5
www.hennessyfunds.com/insights/Foc...
www.hennessyfunds.com/insights/Foc...
Assuming 90% gross margins is a chef’s kiss (satellites not a capital intensive in fantasy land).
TSLAQ dunk for bonus points (don’t worry that 90% of Ycombinator’s VIC write ups were zeros).
Love the Jonestown reference. So close to realizing he’s in a cult.
TSLAQ dunk for bonus points (don’t worry that 90% of Ycombinator’s VIC write ups were zeros).
Love the Jonestown reference. So close to realizing he’s in a cult.
December 28, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Assuming 90% gross margins is a chef’s kiss (satellites not a capital intensive in fantasy land).
TSLAQ dunk for bonus points (don’t worry that 90% of Ycombinator’s VIC write ups were zeros).
Love the Jonestown reference. So close to realizing he’s in a cult.
TSLAQ dunk for bonus points (don’t worry that 90% of Ycombinator’s VIC write ups were zeros).
Love the Jonestown reference. So close to realizing he’s in a cult.
I’m happy to see it but funny thing about Tim Apple’s buy bumping the stock 5% is Cook was on the board throughout the entire downfall. Rubber stamped all the bad decisions. But hey, I’ll take it.
Seems someone has been reading your posts @valuations.bsky.social
Apple CEO Tim Cook Buys $3 Million of Nike Shares
December 24, 2025 at 8:00 PM
I’m happy to see it but funny thing about Tim Apple’s buy bumping the stock 5% is Cook was on the board throughout the entire downfall. Rubber stamped all the bad decisions. But hey, I’ll take it.
Oof. Recession confirmed.
December 24, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Oof. Recession confirmed.
Isn’t the real problem that feature length films peaked in quality like 30 years ago? Even PTA (as much as I love him) can’t top Boogie Nights etc.
December 23, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Isn’t the real problem that feature length films peaked in quality like 30 years ago? Even PTA (as much as I love him) can’t top Boogie Nights etc.
S&P peaked on Dec 29th 2021. VIX is currently sub 14 with market and margin debt at all time highs. I know fiscal will be pumping in ‘26 but this feels complacent.
Seems like Trump in office should command a premium for vol.
Seems like Trump in office should command a premium for vol.
December 23, 2025 at 11:08 PM
S&P peaked on Dec 29th 2021. VIX is currently sub 14 with market and margin debt at all time highs. I know fiscal will be pumping in ‘26 but this feels complacent.
Seems like Trump in office should command a premium for vol.
Seems like Trump in office should command a premium for vol.
Finance bros love this guy’s self-flagellating podcast takes on scale and data advantages but will literally ignore researchers like Missy Cummings who actually tests the tech with a rigorous scientific framework and don’t own the stock.
December 21, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Finance bros love this guy’s self-flagellating podcast takes on scale and data advantages but will literally ignore researchers like Missy Cummings who actually tests the tech with a rigorous scientific framework and don’t own the stock.
As a $META long I truly do not want to know how the IG algorithm-sausage is made. Probably the stuff of nightmares.
December 19, 2025 at 6:11 PM
As a $META long I truly do not want to know how the IG algorithm-sausage is made. Probably the stuff of nightmares.
$RKLB and $ASTS might be the dumbest stocks in the entire market. Giving me flashbacks to Virgin Galactic. Let’s see if I can retire or die trying shorting these dogs.
December 19, 2025 at 4:35 PM
$RKLB and $ASTS might be the dumbest stocks in the entire market. Giving me flashbacks to Virgin Galactic. Let’s see if I can retire or die trying shorting these dogs.
VIX getting bodied by end of year lull. Probably not a bad time to hedge. Can’t get too beared up into Q1 with front loaded stimmy from the OBBB but I don’t think 2026 will be a cake walk.
December 19, 2025 at 4:00 PM
VIX getting bodied by end of year lull. Probably not a bad time to hedge. Can’t get too beared up into Q1 with front loaded stimmy from the OBBB but I don’t think 2026 will be a cake walk.
$LW the latest victim of taking too much price, sell side over-extrapolating fw estimates only to get undercut by private label and see pricing power evaporate.
Who’s old enough to remember “Potatovation”?
Who’s old enough to remember “Potatovation”?
December 19, 2025 at 3:26 PM
$LW the latest victim of taking too much price, sell side over-extrapolating fw estimates only to get undercut by private label and see pricing power evaporate.
Who’s old enough to remember “Potatovation”?
Who’s old enough to remember “Potatovation”?
Yes! And me too. open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
NIKE Q2 FY26 – Middle Innings
You can find my first Nike write up here. Last night, Nike reported Q2 FY26 earnings.
open.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Yes! And me too. open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
I think they need stabilization in China at least. That market has changed a lot. But footwear in China only 10% of total revenue. Uphill battle there for sure.
December 19, 2025 at 1:16 PM
I think they need stabilization in China at least. That market has changed a lot. But footwear in China only 10% of total revenue. Uphill battle there for sure.
I’m long a lot of $NKE. I think the -ve reaction is overdone and the market does not have the patience to sit and wait for the full recovery which provides an attractive opportunity for those who do. Full thoughts on Q2 here.
I’m always looking for pushback.
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
I’m always looking for pushback.
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
NIKE Q2 FY26 – Middle Innings
You can find my first Nike write up here. Last night, Nike reported Q2 FY26 earnings.
open.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 11:05 AM
I’m long a lot of $NKE. I think the -ve reaction is overdone and the market does not have the patience to sit and wait for the full recovery which provides an attractive opportunity for those who do. Full thoughts on Q2 here.
I’m always looking for pushback.
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
I’m always looking for pushback.
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...