UV Data Ops
@uvdataops.bsky.social
Dedicated to analysis of data to help forecast outcomes in the Russo-Ukraine war.
Website: https://ukrainevictorydata.org
Substack: https://uvdataops.substack.com
IMAGE: By Naumenkophotographer - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=40263837
Website: https://ukrainevictorydata.org
Substack: https://uvdataops.substack.com
IMAGE: By Naumenkophotographer - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=40263837
For those of you who like the detail, I refer to the three graphs below.
- Area taken since 5th January 2024 (%)
- Forecast Equipment losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (total, not additional 50%)
- Forecast Personnel losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (Orange line)
- Area taken since 5th January 2024 (%)
- Forecast Equipment losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (total, not additional 50%)
- Forecast Personnel losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (Orange line)
December 31, 2025 at 6:22 AM
For those of you who like the detail, I refer to the three graphs below.
- Area taken since 5th January 2024 (%)
- Forecast Equipment losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (total, not additional 50%)
- Forecast Personnel losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (Orange line)
- Area taken since 5th January 2024 (%)
- Forecast Equipment losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (total, not additional 50%)
- Forecast Personnel losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (Orange line)
If this trend persists, I may make the call that Russia has no reserves and is relying on production to supply tanks and armored combat vehicles. Below are the graphs for this as at 5 SEP 2025 for Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, and Artillery.
September 6, 2025 at 11:11 AM
If this trend persists, I may make the call that Russia has no reserves and is relying on production to supply tanks and armored combat vehicles. Below are the graphs for this as at 5 SEP 2025 for Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, and Artillery.
Update on Corps in the AFU as at 14th July 2025.
We are focusing on the elite corps likely to participate in offensive and counter-offensive operations. More details can be found at militaryland.net, please support them if you can.
We are focusing on the elite corps likely to participate in offensive and counter-offensive operations. More details can be found at militaryland.net, please support them if you can.
July 14, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Update on Corps in the AFU as at 14th July 2025.
We are focusing on the elite corps likely to participate in offensive and counter-offensive operations. More details can be found at militaryland.net, please support them if you can.
We are focusing on the elite corps likely to participate in offensive and counter-offensive operations. More details can be found at militaryland.net, please support them if you can.
We may be seeing the end of tank reserves in the Russian Army.
Adjustments may be needed to Russian production of tanks. For mroe details, see Discussion at open.substack.com/pub/uvdataop...
Adjustments may be needed to Russian production of tanks. For mroe details, see Discussion at open.substack.com/pub/uvdataop...
June 29, 2025 at 5:46 AM
We may be seeing the end of tank reserves in the Russian Army.
Adjustments may be needed to Russian production of tanks. For mroe details, see Discussion at open.substack.com/pub/uvdataop...
Adjustments may be needed to Russian production of tanks. For mroe details, see Discussion at open.substack.com/pub/uvdataop...
Equipment Review for Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, and Artillery.
Summary
Initial Tanks will be revised to 11,000 (up from 9000)
Initial Artillery will remain at 30000.
Initial Armored Combat Vehicles will be revised 26000. (up from 25000)
More Details: ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/equipme...
Summary
Initial Tanks will be revised to 11,000 (up from 9000)
Initial Artillery will remain at 30000.
Initial Armored Combat Vehicles will be revised 26000. (up from 25000)
More Details: ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/equipme...
May 10, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Equipment Review for Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, and Artillery.
Summary
Initial Tanks will be revised to 11,000 (up from 9000)
Initial Artillery will remain at 30000.
Initial Armored Combat Vehicles will be revised 26000. (up from 25000)
More Details: ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/equipme...
Summary
Initial Tanks will be revised to 11,000 (up from 9000)
Initial Artillery will remain at 30000.
Initial Armored Combat Vehicles will be revised 26000. (up from 25000)
More Details: ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/equipme...
bsky.app/profile/uvda...
Update on Status of Elite Corps in the Armed Forces of Ukraine 25 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/update-...
This is an update on the status of elite corps from in a previous post (bsky.app/profile/uvda...)
Update on Status of Elite Corps in the Armed Forces of Ukraine 25 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/update-...
This is an update on the status of elite corps from in a previous post (bsky.app/profile/uvda...)
April 28, 2025 at 1:20 PM
bsky.app/profile/uvda...
Update on Status of Elite Corps in the Armed Forces of Ukraine 25 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/update-...
This is an update on the status of elite corps from in a previous post (bsky.app/profile/uvda...)
Update on Status of Elite Corps in the Armed Forces of Ukraine 25 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/update-...
This is an update on the status of elite corps from in a previous post (bsky.app/profile/uvda...)
Required Production – Forecast Charts Production – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Has any county produced 7000 artillery, 6000 armored combat vehicles, or 3000 tanks per year in the last 20 years?
Has any county produced 7000 artillery, 6000 armored combat vehicles, or 3000 tanks per year in the last 20 years?
April 13, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Required Production – Forecast Charts Production – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Has any county produced 7000 artillery, 6000 armored combat vehicles, or 3000 tanks per year in the last 20 years?
Has any county produced 7000 artillery, 6000 armored combat vehicles, or 3000 tanks per year in the last 20 years?
Required Production – Forecast Charts Losses – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Still over 2.5 million forecast casualties just to get 50% of Ukraine territory.
Still over 2.5 million forecast casualties just to get 50% of Ukraine territory.
April 13, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Required Production – Forecast Charts Losses – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Still over 2.5 million forecast casualties just to get 50% of Ukraine territory.
Still over 2.5 million forecast casualties just to get 50% of Ukraine territory.
Losses & Area – Forecast Charts Equipment – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
When I look at these charts I have every reason to believe Ukraine will win this war.
When I look at these charts I have every reason to believe Ukraine will win this war.
April 13, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Losses & Area – Forecast Charts Equipment – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
When I look at these charts I have every reason to believe Ukraine will win this war.
When I look at these charts I have every reason to believe Ukraine will win this war.
Losses & Area – Forecast Charts Area – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
A slow and steady decline forecast for Russia.
A slow and steady decline forecast for Russia.
April 13, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Losses & Area – Forecast Charts Area – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
A slow and steady decline forecast for Russia.
A slow and steady decline forecast for Russia.
Remaining Equipment – Forecast Charts – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
Looks like Russia will now run out of artillery before it runs out of Armored Combat Vehicles.
Looks like Russia will now run out of artillery before it runs out of Armored Combat Vehicles.
April 13, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Remaining Equipment – Forecast Charts – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
Looks like Russia will now run out of artillery before it runs out of Armored Combat Vehicles.
Looks like Russia will now run out of artillery before it runs out of Armored Combat Vehicles.
Remaining Equipment – Historical Charts – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
Looking worse for Russia each time.
Looking worse for Russia each time.
April 13, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Remaining Equipment – Historical Charts – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
Looking worse for Russia each time.
Looking worse for Russia each time.
Area & Occupation – Forecast Charts – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
More time required still to achieve the same objective.
More time required still to achieve the same objective.
April 13, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Area & Occupation – Forecast Charts – 11 Apr 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
More time required still to achieve the same objective.
More time required still to achieve the same objective.
Area & Occupation – Historical Charts – 11 Apr 2025
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
Once again progress is slow and difficult to see on the charts.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
Once again progress is slow and difficult to see on the charts.
April 13, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Area & Occupation – Historical Charts – 11 Apr 2025
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
Once again progress is slow and difficult to see on the charts.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
Once again progress is slow and difficult to see on the charts.
Required Production - Summary Data
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/required-produ
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/required-produ
April 13, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Required Production - Summary Data
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/required-produ
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/required-produ
Losses & Area - Summary Data
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/losses-area/
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/losses-area/
April 13, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Losses & Area - Summary Data
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/losses-area/
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/losses-area/
Remaining Equipment - Summary Data
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/remaining-equi
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/remaining-equi
April 13, 2025 at 12:26 AM
Remaining Equipment - Summary Data
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/remaining-equi
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/remaining-equi
Area & Occupation - Summary Data
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/areaoccupati...
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/areaoccupati...
April 13, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Area & Occupation - Summary Data
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/areaoccupati...
11 APR 2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/areaoccupati...
Tank Production per Day” has been revised from 1.36 tanks per day to 1.64 tanks per day for all data.
A sharp decline in tank losses has not been seen in recent data.
A sharp decline in tank losses has not been seen in recent data.
April 12, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Tank Production per Day” has been revised from 1.36 tanks per day to 1.64 tanks per day for all data.
A sharp decline in tank losses has not been seen in recent data.
A sharp decline in tank losses has not been seen in recent data.
Official Enemy Losses reported by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine may be accurate and realistic.
Based on the estimate of required efficiency and comprehensive data from one elite brigade.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/officia...
Based on the estimate of required efficiency and comprehensive data from one elite brigade.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/officia...
April 6, 2025 at 6:30 AM
Official Enemy Losses reported by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine may be accurate and realistic.
Based on the estimate of required efficiency and comprehensive data from one elite brigade.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/officia...
Based on the estimate of required efficiency and comprehensive data from one elite brigade.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/officia...
Corps, a force multiplier for Ukraine.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/corps-a...
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/corps-a...
April 5, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Corps, a force multiplier for Ukraine.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/corps-a...
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/corps-a...
Will the War in Ukraine end by 2026? Revisited
We have the DIA (US), the IMF, the FSB (Russia), and the GUR (Ukraine) suggesting that the war could end by no later than mid-2026.
This supports the forecast from UVD (Ukraine Victory Data).
See Full Article - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/will-th...
We have the DIA (US), the IMF, the FSB (Russia), and the GUR (Ukraine) suggesting that the war could end by no later than mid-2026.
This supports the forecast from UVD (Ukraine Victory Data).
See Full Article - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/will-th...
April 5, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Will the War in Ukraine end by 2026? Revisited
We have the DIA (US), the IMF, the FSB (Russia), and the GUR (Ukraine) suggesting that the war could end by no later than mid-2026.
This supports the forecast from UVD (Ukraine Victory Data).
See Full Article - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/will-th...
We have the DIA (US), the IMF, the FSB (Russia), and the GUR (Ukraine) suggesting that the war could end by no later than mid-2026.
This supports the forecast from UVD (Ukraine Victory Data).
See Full Article - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/will-th...
Required Production – Forecast Charts Production – 4 Apr 2025
Forecasts suggests more equipment to achieve the same objective.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Forecasts suggests more equipment to achieve the same objective.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
April 5, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Required Production – Forecast Charts Production – 4 Apr 2025
Forecasts suggests more equipment to achieve the same objective.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Forecasts suggests more equipment to achieve the same objective.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Required Production – Forecast Charts Losses – 4 Apr 2025.
Forecasts suggests it is getting harder for Russia to achieve the same objective.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Forecasts suggests it is getting harder for Russia to achieve the same objective.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
April 5, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Required Production – Forecast Charts Losses – 4 Apr 2025.
Forecasts suggests it is getting harder for Russia to achieve the same objective.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Forecasts suggests it is getting harder for Russia to achieve the same objective.
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...