UV Data Ops
@uvdataops.bsky.social
Dedicated to analysis of data to help forecast outcomes in the Russo-Ukraine war.
Website: https://ukrainevictorydata.org
Substack: https://uvdataops.substack.com
IMAGE: By Naumenkophotographer - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=40263837
Website: https://ukrainevictorydata.org
Substack: https://uvdataops.substack.com
IMAGE: By Naumenkophotographer - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=40263837
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
December 31, 2025 at 6:23 AM
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Hi all,
I just want to touch on 1 thing that may be missed in the detail in the Russo-Ukraine war.
Autocracies can keep things going due to a lack of accountability, let us remember Syria though. Assad was in charge, then he was not. I really think it is just a question of when Ukraine wins, not if.
I just want to touch on 1 thing that may be missed in the detail in the Russo-Ukraine war.
Autocracies can keep things going due to a lack of accountability, let us remember Syria though. Assad was in charge, then he was not. I really think it is just a question of when Ukraine wins, not if.
December 31, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Hi all,
I just want to touch on 1 thing that may be missed in the detail in the Russo-Ukraine war.
Autocracies can keep things going due to a lack of accountability, let us remember Syria though. Assad was in charge, then he was not. I really think it is just a question of when Ukraine wins, not if.
I just want to touch on 1 thing that may be missed in the detail in the Russo-Ukraine war.
Autocracies can keep things going due to a lack of accountability, let us remember Syria though. Assad was in charge, then he was not. I really think it is just a question of when Ukraine wins, not if.
Enemy Losses for 52 weeks ending 26th December 2025.
- 419,560 Casualties
- 1,815 Tanks
- 3,853 Armored Combat Vehicles
- 14,130 Artillery Systems
- 419,560 Casualties
- 1,815 Tanks
- 3,853 Armored Combat Vehicles
- 14,130 Artillery Systems
December 31, 2025 at 5:55 AM
Enemy Losses for 52 weeks ending 26th December 2025.
- 419,560 Casualties
- 1,815 Tanks
- 3,853 Armored Combat Vehicles
- 14,130 Artillery Systems
- 419,560 Casualties
- 1,815 Tanks
- 3,853 Armored Combat Vehicles
- 14,130 Artillery Systems
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 90.09 years to produce the required 90,092 Artillery systems.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 90.09 years to produce the required 90,092 Artillery systems.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 31, 2025 at 5:39 AM
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 90.09 years to produce the required 90,092 Artillery systems.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 90.09 years to produce the required 90,092 Artillery systems.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 55.25 years to produce the required 55,251 Armored Combat Vehicles.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 55.25 years to produce the required 55,251 Armored Combat Vehicles.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 31, 2025 at 5:39 AM
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 55.25 years to produce the required 55,251 Armored Combat Vehicles.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 55.25 years to produce the required 55,251 Armored Combat Vehicles.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 46.1 years to produce the required 27,658 tanks.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 46.1 years to produce the required 27,658 tanks.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 31, 2025 at 5:39 AM
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 46.1 years to produce the required 27,658 tanks.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 46.1 years to produce the required 27,658 tanks.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will need at least:
- 27,658 more Tanks
- 55,251 more Armored Combat Vehicles
- 90,092 more Artillery Systems
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will need at least:
- 27,658 more Tanks
- 55,251 more Armored Combat Vehicles
- 90,092 more Artillery Systems
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 31, 2025 at 5:39 AM
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will need at least:
- 27,658 more Tanks
- 55,251 more Armored Combat Vehicles
- 90,092 more Artillery Systems
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will need at least:
- 27,658 more Tanks
- 55,251 more Armored Combat Vehicles
- 90,092 more Artillery Systems
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will have additional:
- Tank losses of 29,502 to 78,129
- Armored Combat Vehicle losses of 61,286 to 165,857
- Artillery losses of 91,421 to 608,241
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will have additional:
- Tank losses of 29,502 to 78,129
- Armored Combat Vehicle losses of 61,286 to 165,857
- Artillery losses of 91,421 to 608,241
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 31, 2025 at 5:39 AM
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will have additional:
- Tank losses of 29,502 to 78,129
- Armored Combat Vehicle losses of 61,286 to 165,857
- Artillery losses of 91,421 to 608,241
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will have additional:
- Tank losses of 29,502 to 78,129
- Armored Combat Vehicle losses of 61,286 to 165,857
- Artillery losses of 91,421 to 608,241
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will have between 3.09 million and 18.06 million additional casualties.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will have between 3.09 million and 18.06 million additional casualties.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 31, 2025 at 5:39 AM
For Russia to go from 19.24% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will have between 3.09 million and 18.06 million additional casualties.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will have between 3.09 million and 18.06 million additional casualties.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Based on production and burn rate of Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, and Artillery,
it looks like Russia will take no more than 22.86% of Ukraine.
With zero equipment reserves & relying only on production after 23-Feb-2027.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
it looks like Russia will take no more than 22.86% of Ukraine.
With zero equipment reserves & relying only on production after 23-Feb-2027.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
December 31, 2025 at 5:39 AM
Based on production and burn rate of Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, and Artillery,
it looks like Russia will take no more than 22.86% of Ukraine.
With zero equipment reserves & relying only on production after 23-Feb-2027.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
it looks like Russia will take no more than 22.86% of Ukraine.
With zero equipment reserves & relying only on production after 23-Feb-2027.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
Based on production and burn rate of Artillery,
it looks like Russia will run out of Artillery in 37 - 59 days,
between 31-Jan-2026 & 22-Feb-2026,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of Artillery in 37 - 59 days,
between 31-Jan-2026 & 22-Feb-2026,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
December 31, 2025 at 5:38 AM
Based on production and burn rate of Artillery,
it looks like Russia will run out of Artillery in 37 - 59 days,
between 31-Jan-2026 & 22-Feb-2026,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of Artillery in 37 - 59 days,
between 31-Jan-2026 & 22-Feb-2026,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
Based on production and burn rate of Armored Combat Vehicles,
it looks like Russia will run out of these Vehicles in 423 - 772 days,
between 22-Feb-2027 & 06-Feb-2028,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of these Vehicles in 423 - 772 days,
between 22-Feb-2027 & 06-Feb-2028,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
December 31, 2025 at 5:38 AM
Based on production and burn rate of Armored Combat Vehicles,
it looks like Russia will run out of these Vehicles in 423 - 772 days,
between 22-Feb-2027 & 06-Feb-2028,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of these Vehicles in 423 - 772 days,
between 22-Feb-2027 & 06-Feb-2028,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
Based on production and burn rate of Tanks,
it looks like Russia will run out of Tanks in 282 - 554 days,
between 04-Oct-2026 & 02-Jul-2027,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of Tanks in 282 - 554 days,
between 04-Oct-2026 & 02-Jul-2027,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
December 31, 2025 at 5:38 AM
Based on production and burn rate of Tanks,
it looks like Russia will run out of Tanks in 282 - 554 days,
between 04-Oct-2026 & 02-Jul-2027,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of Tanks in 282 - 554 days,
between 04-Oct-2026 & 02-Jul-2027,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
It looks like Russia's Progress has changed from
- 94.92 sq km per day on 05-Jan-2024
- to 51.48 sq km per day on 26-Dec-2025.
Over the last 52 weeks Russia's progress has been 11.82 sq km per day.
Estimate for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
- 94.92 sq km per day on 05-Jan-2024
- to 51.48 sq km per day on 26-Dec-2025.
Over the last 52 weeks Russia's progress has been 11.82 sq km per day.
Estimate for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
December 31, 2025 at 5:38 AM
It looks like Russia's Progress has changed from
- 94.92 sq km per day on 05-Jan-2024
- to 51.48 sq km per day on 26-Dec-2025.
Over the last 52 weeks Russia's progress has been 11.82 sq km per day.
Estimate for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
- 94.92 sq km per day on 05-Jan-2024
- to 51.48 sq km per day on 26-Dec-2025.
Over the last 52 weeks Russia's progress has been 11.82 sq km per day.
Estimate for 26-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
It looks like it will take Russia between 9.88 and 43.05 years to capture 50% of Ukraine.
Russia holds 19.24% as at 26-Dec-2025
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
Russia holds 19.24% as at 26-Dec-2025
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
December 31, 2025 at 5:37 AM
It looks like it will take Russia between 9.88 and 43.05 years to capture 50% of Ukraine.
Russia holds 19.24% as at 26-Dec-2025
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
Russia holds 19.24% as at 26-Dec-2025
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
New Data, Charts, and Forecasts posted for 26-Dec-2025 at ukrainevictorydata.org.
Usual highlights and/or summary reports will be posted shortly.
Summary data links below:
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
Usual highlights and/or summary reports will be posted shortly.
Summary data links below:
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
December 31, 2025 at 5:37 AM
New Data, Charts, and Forecasts posted for 26-Dec-2025 at ukrainevictorydata.org.
Usual highlights and/or summary reports will be posted shortly.
Summary data links below:
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
Usual highlights and/or summary reports will be posted shortly.
Summary data links below:
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/area-oc...
ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 89.35 years to produce the required 89,352 Artillery systems.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 89.35 years to produce the required 89,352 Artillery systems.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 23, 2025 at 4:25 AM
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 89.35 years to produce the required 89,352 Artillery systems.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 89.35 years to produce the required 89,352 Artillery systems.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 55.25 years to produce the required 55,254 Armored Combat Vehicles.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 55.25 years to produce the required 55,254 Armored Combat Vehicles.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 23, 2025 at 4:25 AM
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 55.25 years to produce the required 55,254 Armored Combat Vehicles.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 55.25 years to produce the required 55,254 Armored Combat Vehicles.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 46.05 years to produce the required 27,631 tanks.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 46.05 years to produce the required 27,631 tanks.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 23, 2025 at 4:24 AM
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like it will take Russia at least 46.05 years to produce the required 27,631 tanks.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like it will take Russia at least 46.05 years to produce the required 27,631 tanks.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will need at least:
- 27,631 more Tanks
- 55,254 more Armored Combat Vehicles
- 89,352 more Artillery Systems
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will need at least:
- 27,631 more Tanks
- 55,254 more Armored Combat Vehicles
- 89,352 more Artillery Systems
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 23, 2025 at 4:24 AM
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will need at least:
- 27,631 more Tanks
- 55,254 more Armored Combat Vehicles
- 89,352 more Artillery Systems
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will need at least:
- 27,631 more Tanks
- 55,254 more Armored Combat Vehicles
- 89,352 more Artillery Systems
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will have additional:
- Tank losses of 29,489 to 79,949
- Armored Combat Vehicle losses of 61,305 to 170,578
- Artillery losses of 90,921 to 606,643
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will have additional:
- Tank losses of 29,489 to 79,949
- Armored Combat Vehicle losses of 61,305 to 170,578
- Artillery losses of 90,921 to 606,643
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 23, 2025 at 4:24 AM
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will have additional:
- Tank losses of 29,489 to 79,949
- Armored Combat Vehicle losses of 61,305 to 170,578
- Artillery losses of 90,921 to 606,643
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will have additional:
- Tank losses of 29,489 to 79,949
- Armored Combat Vehicle losses of 61,305 to 170,578
- Artillery losses of 90,921 to 606,643
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will have between 3.08 million and 18.34 million additional casualties.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will have between 3.08 million and 18.34 million additional casualties.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
December 23, 2025 at 4:24 AM
For Russia to go from 19.22% to 50% occupation of Ukraine,
it looks like Russia will have between 3.08 million and 18.34 million additional casualties.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
it looks like Russia will have between 3.08 million and 18.34 million additional casualties.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/require...
Based on production and burn rate of Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, and Artillery,
it looks like Russia will take no more than 22.85% of Ukraine.
With zero equipment reserves & relying only on production after 15-Feb-2027.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
it looks like Russia will take no more than 22.85% of Ukraine.
With zero equipment reserves & relying only on production after 15-Feb-2027.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
December 23, 2025 at 4:24 AM
Based on production and burn rate of Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, and Artillery,
it looks like Russia will take no more than 22.85% of Ukraine.
With zero equipment reserves & relying only on production after 15-Feb-2027.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
it looks like Russia will take no more than 22.85% of Ukraine.
With zero equipment reserves & relying only on production after 15-Feb-2027.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-...
Based on production and burn rate of Artillery,
it looks like Russia will run out of Artillery in 44 - 70 days,
between 31-Jan-2026 & 26-Feb-2026,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of Artillery in 44 - 70 days,
between 31-Jan-2026 & 26-Feb-2026,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
December 23, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Based on production and burn rate of Artillery,
it looks like Russia will run out of Artillery in 44 - 70 days,
between 31-Jan-2026 & 26-Feb-2026,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of Artillery in 44 - 70 days,
between 31-Jan-2026 & 26-Feb-2026,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
Based on production and burn rate of Armored Combat Vehicles,
it looks like Russia will run out of these Vehicles in 423 - 750 days,
between 14-Feb-2027 & 07-Jan-2028,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of these Vehicles in 423 - 750 days,
between 14-Feb-2027 & 07-Jan-2028,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
December 23, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Based on production and burn rate of Armored Combat Vehicles,
it looks like Russia will run out of these Vehicles in 423 - 750 days,
between 14-Feb-2027 & 07-Jan-2028,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...
it looks like Russia will run out of these Vehicles in 423 - 750 days,
between 14-Feb-2027 & 07-Jan-2028,
relying only on production with no reserves afterwards.
Forecast for 19-Dec-2025 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaini...