Temur Umarov
@tumarov.bsky.social
Fellow at @carnegieendowment.org I write about Central Asia for @ceip-politika.bsky.social
https://carnegieendowment.org/people/temur-umarov?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia
https://carnegieendowment.org/people/temur-umarov?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia
Read the full article @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Read the full article @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
The current optimistic rhetoric is fraught w/ danger. Trump may eventually demand more (distancing from China/Russia) as an ultimatum, forcing the region to make a difficult choice:
1. Incur the wrath of RU/CN
2. Disappoint Trump and become more dependent on RU/CN
1. Incur the wrath of RU/CN
2. Disappoint Trump and become more dependent on RU/CN
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
The current optimistic rhetoric is fraught w/ danger. Trump may eventually demand more (distancing from China/Russia) as an ultimatum, forcing the region to make a difficult choice:
1. Incur the wrath of RU/CN
2. Disappoint Trump and become more dependent on RU/CN
1. Incur the wrath of RU/CN
2. Disappoint Trump and become more dependent on RU/CN
Local leaders see Russia as their main security guarantor and primary threat. They will not jeopardize their loyalty. The prevailing regional sentiment: U.S. leaders come and go, but Russia’s does not change.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Local leaders see Russia as their main security guarantor and primary threat. They will not jeopardize their loyalty. The prevailing regional sentiment: U.S. leaders come and go, but Russia’s does not change.
Washington has yet to launch a single major infrastructure project comparable to China's Belt and Road Initiative or Russia's new nuclear plant deals. The region's poor investment climate and deep saturation by Moscow/Beijing remain huge barriers.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Washington has yet to launch a single major infrastructure project comparable to China's Belt and Road Initiative or Russia's new nuclear plant deals. The region's poor investment climate and deep saturation by Moscow/Beijing remain huge barriers.
Despite the hype, the core C5+1/B5+1 business formats and the key focus on rare earth minerals were actually launched under the previous administration. Trump is just a more effective implementer because his style is ideologically closer to the region's authoritarian leaders.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Despite the hype, the core C5+1/B5+1 business formats and the key focus on rare earth minerals were actually launched under the previous administration. Trump is just a more effective implementer because his style is ideologically closer to the region's authoritarian leaders.
Why trump is a better partner?
Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.
Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Why trump is a better partner?
Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.
Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.
US attention is geopolitical gold
For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.
For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
US attention is geopolitical gold
For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.
For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.