Temur Umarov
@tumarov.bsky.social
Fellow at @carnegieendowment.org I write about Central Asia for @ceip-politika.bsky.social
https://carnegieendowment.org/people/temur-umarov?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia
https://carnegieendowment.org/people/temur-umarov?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia
Local leaders see Russia as their main security guarantor and primary threat. They will not jeopardize their loyalty. The prevailing regional sentiment: U.S. leaders come and go, but Russia’s does not change.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Local leaders see Russia as their main security guarantor and primary threat. They will not jeopardize their loyalty. The prevailing regional sentiment: U.S. leaders come and go, but Russia’s does not change.
Washington has yet to launch a single major infrastructure project comparable to China's Belt and Road Initiative or Russia's new nuclear plant deals. The region's poor investment climate and deep saturation by Moscow/Beijing remain huge barriers.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Washington has yet to launch a single major infrastructure project comparable to China's Belt and Road Initiative or Russia's new nuclear plant deals. The region's poor investment climate and deep saturation by Moscow/Beijing remain huge barriers.
Despite the hype, the core C5+1/B5+1 business formats and the key focus on rare earth minerals were actually launched under the previous administration. Trump is just a more effective implementer because his style is ideologically closer to the region's authoritarian leaders.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Despite the hype, the core C5+1/B5+1 business formats and the key focus on rare earth minerals were actually launched under the previous administration. Trump is just a more effective implementer because his style is ideologically closer to the region's authoritarian leaders.
Why trump is a better partner?
Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.
Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Why trump is a better partner?
Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.
Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.
US attention is geopolitical gold
For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.
For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
US attention is geopolitical gold
For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.
For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.
Central Asia is adapting its entire ideological agenda to impress one man: Donald Trump.
The recent C5+1 summit was a new high point in US-Central Asian ties. But is this rapprochement real, or just risk? 🧵🧵🧵
The recent C5+1 summit was a new high point in US-Central Asian ties. But is this rapprochement real, or just risk? 🧵🧵🧵
November 11, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Central Asia is adapting its entire ideological agenda to impress one man: Donald Trump.
The recent C5+1 summit was a new high point in US-Central Asian ties. But is this rapprochement real, or just risk? 🧵🧵🧵
The recent C5+1 summit was a new high point in US-Central Asian ties. But is this rapprochement real, or just risk? 🧵🧵🧵
Beyond the much-discussed trade figures, new projects, & investments, the China+Central Asia summit holds another dimension. W/ @peterleonard1.bsky.social @capsunlock.bsky.social we delved into the visibility of local agency operating behind the scenes:
pod.link/1781868199
pod.link/1781868199
June 25, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Beyond the much-discussed trade figures, new projects, & investments, the China+Central Asia summit holds another dimension. W/ @peterleonard1.bsky.social @capsunlock.bsky.social we delved into the visibility of local agency operating behind the scenes:
pod.link/1781868199
pod.link/1781868199
Had a great conversation with Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska for her new media Turan Tales on China-Central Asia:
Subscribe to her podcast on any platform you use: plinkhq.com/i/1799753984...
Subscribe to her podcast on any platform you use: plinkhq.com/i/1799753984...
May 8, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Had a great conversation with Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska for her new media Turan Tales on China-Central Asia:
Subscribe to her podcast on any platform you use: plinkhq.com/i/1799753984...
Subscribe to her podcast on any platform you use: plinkhq.com/i/1799753984...
April 17, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Central Asia’s “frankly bonkers” March heatwave, which saw temperatures up to 10C above pre-industrial levels, was intensified by climate change, according to new research published as countries around the world suffer exceptional spring weather.
www.ft.com/content/164a...
www.ft.com/content/164a...
April 5, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Central Asia’s “frankly bonkers” March heatwave, which saw temperatures up to 10C above pre-industrial levels, was intensified by climate change, according to new research published as countries around the world suffer exceptional spring weather.
www.ft.com/content/164a...
www.ft.com/content/164a...
If you missed our conversation about China's investment strategy in Central Asia with Nargiza Murataliyeva, Pan Yanliang, and Yunis Sharifli, you can watch the recording on
@carnegieendowment.org's YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/live/vWZVWAm...
@carnegieendowment.org's YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/live/vWZVWAm...
March 27, 2025 at 3:41 PM
If you missed our conversation about China's investment strategy in Central Asia with Nargiza Murataliyeva, Pan Yanliang, and Yunis Sharifli, you can watch the recording on
@carnegieendowment.org's YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/live/vWZVWAm...
@carnegieendowment.org's YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/live/vWZVWAm...
Tajikistan publicly showcased its newly acquired Chinese HQ-17AE short-range SAM system for the first time during a military parade.
politik.uz/novosti/tadz...
politik.uz/novosti/tadz...
March 20, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Tajikistan publicly showcased its newly acquired Chinese HQ-17AE short-range SAM system for the first time during a military parade.
politik.uz/novosti/tadz...
politik.uz/novosti/tadz...
Seems like Macron and Mirziyoyev have found a common language
March 13, 2025 at 6:38 AM
Seems like Macron and Mirziyoyev have found a common language
If you missed our conversation today about China's hard and soft power in Central Asia with @nargiskassenova.bsky.social, Berikbol Dukeyev & Odil Gafarov, you can watch the recording on @carnegieendowment.org YouTube: www.youtube.com/live/WJPe2xu...
March 11, 2025 at 5:18 PM
If you missed our conversation today about China's hard and soft power in Central Asia with @nargiskassenova.bsky.social, Berikbol Dukeyev & Odil Gafarov, you can watch the recording on @carnegieendowment.org YouTube: www.youtube.com/live/WJPe2xu...
Residents of Tashkent confused Huawei workers' "group jogging activity" with a political protest. Uzbekistan's MIA had to come out with a statement explaining the situation: t.me/Sh_Giyasov_I...
podrobno.uz/cat/uzbekist...
podrobno.uz/cat/uzbekist...
February 16, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Residents of Tashkent confused Huawei workers' "group jogging activity" with a political protest. Uzbekistan's MIA had to come out with a statement explaining the situation: t.me/Sh_Giyasov_I...
podrobno.uz/cat/uzbekist...
podrobno.uz/cat/uzbekist...
The Kazakhstan Emissions Trading System (KazETS), launched in January 2013, is Asia's first nationwide carbon trading scheme.
@asiasociety.org's explainer: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
@asiasociety.org's explainer: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
January 25, 2025 at 10:15 AM
The Kazakhstan Emissions Trading System (KazETS), launched in January 2013, is Asia's first nationwide carbon trading scheme.
@asiasociety.org's explainer: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
@asiasociety.org's explainer: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
Kyrgyzstan should have seen it coming:
The US imposed hundreds of sanctions targeting Russia, including the Keremet Bank in Kyrgyzstan.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
The US imposed hundreds of sanctions targeting Russia, including the Keremet Bank in Kyrgyzstan.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
January 16, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Kyrgyzstan should have seen it coming:
The US imposed hundreds of sanctions targeting Russia, including the Keremet Bank in Kyrgyzstan.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
The US imposed hundreds of sanctions targeting Russia, including the Keremet Bank in Kyrgyzstan.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
Uzbekistan and China have agreed to begin constructing two pumped storage hydropower plants later this year, marking the first projects of their kind in Central Asia.
January 15, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Uzbekistan and China have agreed to begin constructing two pumped storage hydropower plants later this year, marking the first projects of their kind in Central Asia.
In addition, Tokayev accused his predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev of being pro-Kremlin:
"[Nazarbayev & Putin] apparently meet as old friends and colleagues, they have something to remember... [Nazarbayev] is morally & politically closely connected with the Kremlin".
"[Nazarbayev & Putin] apparently meet as old friends and colleagues, they have something to remember... [Nazarbayev] is morally & politically closely connected with the Kremlin".
January 4, 2025 at 9:26 AM
In addition, Tokayev accused his predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev of being pro-Kremlin:
"[Nazarbayev & Putin] apparently meet as old friends and colleagues, they have something to remember... [Nazarbayev] is morally & politically closely connected with the Kremlin".
"[Nazarbayev & Putin] apparently meet as old friends and colleagues, they have something to remember... [Nazarbayev] is morally & politically closely connected with the Kremlin".
6.
(here Putin out of nowhere starts talking about his favorite topic: the WW2)
(here Putin out of nowhere starts talking about his favorite topic: the WW2)
December 20, 2024 at 12:17 PM
6.
(here Putin out of nowhere starts talking about his favorite topic: the WW2)
(here Putin out of nowhere starts talking about his favorite topic: the WW2)
5.
The most critical aspect is regional cooperation. Regional leaders engage w/ one another: Maotai & vodka, of course, play a part there. But everything is in moderation, as far as I understand. This personal vibe is important, & there are exchanges between students & so on.
The most critical aspect is regional cooperation. Regional leaders engage w/ one another: Maotai & vodka, of course, play a part there. But everything is in moderation, as far as I understand. This personal vibe is important, & there are exchanges between students & so on.
December 20, 2024 at 12:17 PM
5.
The most critical aspect is regional cooperation. Regional leaders engage w/ one another: Maotai & vodka, of course, play a part there. But everything is in moderation, as far as I understand. This personal vibe is important, & there are exchanges between students & so on.
The most critical aspect is regional cooperation. Regional leaders engage w/ one another: Maotai & vodka, of course, play a part there. But everything is in moderation, as far as I understand. This personal vibe is important, & there are exchanges between students & so on.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan's heads of the security services announced that they have finalized the delimitation of their mutual border www.gov.kg/ru/post/s/24...
December 4, 2024 at 5:56 PM
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan's heads of the security services announced that they have finalized the delimitation of their mutual border www.gov.kg/ru/post/s/24...
How has Uzbekistan’s policy towards China evolved, and what factors have influenced this transformation?
My paper for the OSCE Academy is finally out!
(PDF download) www.osce-academy.net/upload/file/...
My paper for the OSCE Academy is finally out!
(PDF download) www.osce-academy.net/upload/file/...
December 19, 2023 at 11:15 AM
How has Uzbekistan’s policy towards China evolved, and what factors have influenced this transformation?
My paper for the OSCE Academy is finally out!
(PDF download) www.osce-academy.net/upload/file/...
My paper for the OSCE Academy is finally out!
(PDF download) www.osce-academy.net/upload/file/...
A new study by the World Bank says that the trade volumes along the Middle Corridor could triple by 2030 when they’d reach 11 million tons of goods.
mailchi.mp/rferl.org/ch...
mailchi.mp/rferl.org/ch...
December 1, 2023 at 1:00 PM
A new study by the World Bank says that the trade volumes along the Middle Corridor could triple by 2030 when they’d reach 11 million tons of goods.
mailchi.mp/rferl.org/ch...
mailchi.mp/rferl.org/ch...
Hello there ☀️
I am Temur Umarov, I tweet/post about Central Asia and the region's relations with the outside world (especially China & Russia).
Everything I write is here: carnegieendowment.org/experts/1738
I am Temur Umarov, I tweet/post about Central Asia and the region's relations with the outside world (especially China & Russia).
Everything I write is here: carnegieendowment.org/experts/1738
November 1, 2023 at 11:30 AM
Hello there ☀️
I am Temur Umarov, I tweet/post about Central Asia and the region's relations with the outside world (especially China & Russia).
Everything I write is here: carnegieendowment.org/experts/1738
I am Temur Umarov, I tweet/post about Central Asia and the region's relations with the outside world (especially China & Russia).
Everything I write is here: carnegieendowment.org/experts/1738