Trevor Sullivan
@trevsully.bsky.social
Pinned
Trevor Sullivan
@trevsully.bsky.social
· Jul 29
The Fraud Behind Claims of Election Fraud
Play with the data yourself: Interactive analysis debunking statistical claims about the 2024 election with live data visualizations
sullivan.zip
🧵 A group called "Election Truth Alliance" claims they found statistical proof that the 2024 election was rigged. Their analysis has spread across social media.
I rebuilt their analysis from scratch. What I found: They don't understand basic statistics.
Play with the data yourself:
I rebuilt their analysis from scratch. What I found: They don't understand basic statistics.
Play with the data yourself:
What are the odds that SCOTUS rules that Trump can keep the illegal Tariff money because it would be too complex to return it to robbed consumers, then also authorized the administration to claw back legally distributed SNAP funds directly from poor people's bank accounts.
November 10, 2025 at 1:21 AM
What are the odds that SCOTUS rules that Trump can keep the illegal Tariff money because it would be too complex to return it to robbed consumers, then also authorized the administration to claw back legally distributed SNAP funds directly from poor people's bank accounts.
Reposted by Trevor Sullivan
From @davidlsims.bsky.social:
“What’s happened to Kimmel is an escalation in every way.”
www.theatlantic.com/culture/arch...
“What’s happened to Kimmel is an escalation in every way.”
www.theatlantic.com/culture/arch...
An Escalation in Every Way
Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension from late-night is a chilling precedent that could have deep consequences if it isn’t swiftly undone.
www.theatlantic.com
September 18, 2025 at 1:13 PM
From @davidlsims.bsky.social:
“What’s happened to Kimmel is an escalation in every way.”
www.theatlantic.com/culture/arch...
“What’s happened to Kimmel is an escalation in every way.”
www.theatlantic.com/culture/arch...
I was so ready for Silksong to be a dud, and to accept the reality that Hollow Knight was lightning in a bottle, but they seem to have really actually outdid themselves, which is kinda nuts.
Can't wait for the devlogs and GDC talks about what was going on all these years to make this come together
Can't wait for the devlogs and GDC talks about what was going on all these years to make this come together
September 18, 2025 at 10:48 PM
I was so ready for Silksong to be a dud, and to accept the reality that Hollow Knight was lightning in a bottle, but they seem to have really actually outdid themselves, which is kinda nuts.
Can't wait for the devlogs and GDC talks about what was going on all these years to make this come together
Can't wait for the devlogs and GDC talks about what was going on all these years to make this come together
I noticed Hornet's theme from the first game for the first time in a very particular location in #silksong
I can't wait til I can listen to the whole soundtrack and see if that's the genuine first statement, because it's an interesting choice if so.
I can't wait til I can listen to the whole soundtrack and see if that's the genuine first statement, because it's an interesting choice if so.
September 14, 2025 at 7:11 PM
I noticed Hornet's theme from the first game for the first time in a very particular location in #silksong
I can't wait til I can listen to the whole soundtrack and see if that's the genuine first statement, because it's an interesting choice if so.
I can't wait til I can listen to the whole soundtrack and see if that's the genuine first statement, because it's an interesting choice if so.
This is a good question, and led to a little bit of bonus analysis! Click through to read the thread, it's not very long.
TLDR: the claim is false, and it's another instance where a smoking gun exists in the data and is easy to find but ETA didn't publish it because it disproves them.
TLDR: the claim is false, and it's another instance where a smoking gun exists in the data and is easy to find but ETA didn't publish it because it disproves them.
Not sure if this is the same issue, but it was noted after the election that the swing states had many voters who selected trump at the top of the ballot, and Dems for the rest of the ballot. And that this only occurred in the swing states. Is there truth in this and does it point to corruption?
July 30, 2025 at 2:13 PM
This is a good question, and led to a little bit of bonus analysis! Click through to read the thread, it's not very long.
TLDR: the claim is false, and it's another instance where a smoking gun exists in the data and is easy to find but ETA didn't publish it because it disproves them.
TLDR: the claim is false, and it's another instance where a smoking gun exists in the data and is easy to find but ETA didn't publish it because it disproves them.
🧵 A group called "Election Truth Alliance" claims they found statistical proof that the 2024 election was rigged. Their analysis has spread across social media.
I rebuilt their analysis from scratch. What I found: They don't understand basic statistics.
Play with the data yourself:
I rebuilt their analysis from scratch. What I found: They don't understand basic statistics.
Play with the data yourself:
The Fraud Behind Claims of Election Fraud
Play with the data yourself: Interactive analysis debunking statistical claims about the 2024 election with live data visualizations
sullivan.zip
July 29, 2025 at 1:26 PM
🧵 A group called "Election Truth Alliance" claims they found statistical proof that the 2024 election was rigged. Their analysis has spread across social media.
I rebuilt their analysis from scratch. What I found: They don't understand basic statistics.
Play with the data yourself:
I rebuilt their analysis from scratch. What I found: They don't understand basic statistics.
Play with the data yourself:
When people say "EST" or "Eastern Standard Time" during the summer when they are actually on EDT, instead of being annoyed I interpret it as a subliminal longing for the abolition of clock changes and year-round standard time.
#PassTheSunshineProtectionAct #MarcoRubioIsABrokenClockAboutClocks
#PassTheSunshineProtectionAct #MarcoRubioIsABrokenClockAboutClocks
July 25, 2025 at 2:27 PM
When people say "EST" or "Eastern Standard Time" during the summer when they are actually on EDT, instead of being annoyed I interpret it as a subliminal longing for the abolition of clock changes and year-round standard time.
#PassTheSunshineProtectionAct #MarcoRubioIsABrokenClockAboutClocks
#PassTheSunshineProtectionAct #MarcoRubioIsABrokenClockAboutClocks
You know the tech world has gone absolutely insane when Google spends like 3 BILLION dollars to hire like 3 dudes who don't even fucking work, and Cognition gets the entire rest of their 250-person company with all of its IP for crumbs.
SV is about to learn who actually produces value in the world.
SV is about to learn who actually produces value in the world.
July 15, 2025 at 3:02 PM
You know the tech world has gone absolutely insane when Google spends like 3 BILLION dollars to hire like 3 dudes who don't even fucking work, and Cognition gets the entire rest of their 250-person company with all of its IP for crumbs.
SV is about to learn who actually produces value in the world.
SV is about to learn who actually produces value in the world.
@hankgreen.bsky.social's new video makes a point that's been my internet bugbear for a while now.
So many bad ideas on the internet (cough superintelligence cough) are based on the erroneous belief that exponential curves exist. They don't.
Every exponential is a sigmoid that hasn't inflected yet.
So many bad ideas on the internet (cough superintelligence cough) are based on the erroneous belief that exponential curves exist. They don't.
Every exponential is a sigmoid that hasn't inflected yet.
July 7, 2025 at 1:46 PM
@hankgreen.bsky.social's new video makes a point that's been my internet bugbear for a while now.
So many bad ideas on the internet (cough superintelligence cough) are based on the erroneous belief that exponential curves exist. They don't.
Every exponential is a sigmoid that hasn't inflected yet.
So many bad ideas on the internet (cough superintelligence cough) are based on the erroneous belief that exponential curves exist. They don't.
Every exponential is a sigmoid that hasn't inflected yet.
It's interesting that Andrew Cuomo's exists in the zeitgeist as merely a serial sexual harasser.
I guess everybody forgot that he also killed a bunch of grandparents in nursing homes by withholding vaccines and then covered up the statistics, and that he loves taking bribes which he calls "ziti".
I guess everybody forgot that he also killed a bunch of grandparents in nursing homes by withholding vaccines and then covered up the statistics, and that he loves taking bribes which he calls "ziti".
June 24, 2025 at 4:26 AM
It's interesting that Andrew Cuomo's exists in the zeitgeist as merely a serial sexual harasser.
I guess everybody forgot that he also killed a bunch of grandparents in nursing homes by withholding vaccines and then covered up the statistics, and that he loves taking bribes which he calls "ziti".
I guess everybody forgot that he also killed a bunch of grandparents in nursing homes by withholding vaccines and then covered up the statistics, and that he loves taking bribes which he calls "ziti".
@mikeduncan.bsky.social How dare you make me more excited for The Children of Saturn than the return of normal Revolutions which I have been yearning for and then hyping up to my friends for years.
June 16, 2025 at 11:00 PM
@mikeduncan.bsky.social How dare you make me more excited for The Children of Saturn than the return of normal Revolutions which I have been yearning for and then hyping up to my friends for years.
Is it just me, or is this "The Illusion of Thinking" paper massively flawed?
If you asked me to just SAY the entire 4097-step solution to a 12-disc Towers of Hanoi puzzle, out loud, no prep, no scratchpad, eyes closed, zero mistakes, I'd flunk it too.
Does that mean I'm incapable of thinking?
If you asked me to just SAY the entire 4097-step solution to a 12-disc Towers of Hanoi puzzle, out loud, no prep, no scratchpad, eyes closed, zero mistakes, I'd flunk it too.
Does that mean I'm incapable of thinking?
The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity
Recent generations of frontier language models have introduced Large Reasoning Models
(LRMs) that generate detailed thinking processes…
machinelearning.apple.com
June 10, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Is it just me, or is this "The Illusion of Thinking" paper massively flawed?
If you asked me to just SAY the entire 4097-step solution to a 12-disc Towers of Hanoi puzzle, out loud, no prep, no scratchpad, eyes closed, zero mistakes, I'd flunk it too.
Does that mean I'm incapable of thinking?
If you asked me to just SAY the entire 4097-step solution to a 12-disc Towers of Hanoi puzzle, out loud, no prep, no scratchpad, eyes closed, zero mistakes, I'd flunk it too.
Does that mean I'm incapable of thinking?
Loving this trending genre of blogs trying to refine the AI discourse by being real about the stuff that's good, highlighting the stuff that's bad, and trying to end the endless reiteration of arguments that make no sense
fly.io/blog/youre-a...
fly.io/blog/youre-a...
My AI Skeptic Friends Are All Nuts
My smartest friends have bananas arguments about LLM coding.
fly.io
June 3, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Loving this trending genre of blogs trying to refine the AI discourse by being real about the stuff that's good, highlighting the stuff that's bad, and trying to end the endless reiteration of arguments that make no sense
fly.io/blog/youre-a...
fly.io/blog/youre-a...
Reposted by Trevor Sullivan
I am disappointed in the AI discourse steveklabnik.com/writing/i-am...
I am disappointed in the AI discourse
steveklabnik.com
May 28, 2025 at 5:33 PM
I am disappointed in the AI discourse steveklabnik.com/writing/i-am...
Reposted by Trevor Sullivan
this has been driving me insane for years, thank you
provided in case its enumeration of beefs is useful to you:
redeem-tomorrow.com/the-average-...
provided in case its enumeration of beefs is useful to you:
redeem-tomorrow.com/the-average-...
The average AI criticism has gotten lazy, and that's dangerous
Most of the AI criticism you'll hear on any given digital street corner is lazy as hell. We have to up our game if we want a future worth living in.
redeem-tomorrow.com
May 28, 2025 at 7:03 PM
this has been driving me insane for years, thank you
provided in case its enumeration of beefs is useful to you:
redeem-tomorrow.com/the-average-...
provided in case its enumeration of beefs is useful to you:
redeem-tomorrow.com/the-average-...
Reposted by Trevor Sullivan
my theory as to why Brutalism has acquired such allure in the era of platform capitalism: it is an aesthetic that is resistant to the sentimentality of the eye, and thus oblivious to the discipline of the interface. Instagram has flooded our lives with pine & brass, making concrete seem like freedom
April 21, 2025 at 6:50 AM
my theory as to why Brutalism has acquired such allure in the era of platform capitalism: it is an aesthetic that is resistant to the sentimentality of the eye, and thus oblivious to the discipline of the interface. Instagram has flooded our lives with pine & brass, making concrete seem like freedom
Thinking about how crazy it is that new chemicals that are to be put into people's bodies nonconsentually are assumed safe until proven unsafe.
But new chemicals that are to be be put into people's bodies consentually are assumed dangerous until proven safe.
But new chemicals that are to be be put into people's bodies consentually are assumed dangerous until proven safe.
May 22, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Thinking about how crazy it is that new chemicals that are to be put into people's bodies nonconsentually are assumed safe until proven unsafe.
But new chemicals that are to be be put into people's bodies consentually are assumed dangerous until proven safe.
But new chemicals that are to be be put into people's bodies consentually are assumed dangerous until proven safe.
It's maddening the threads that the Supremes allow to drop
EG, if Congress intended the discretionary exemption to excuse wrong-house raids, what about the Collinsville cases made it nondiscretionary? The govt. parried by saying the facts aren't in question, but it matters for determining intent.
EG, if Congress intended the discretionary exemption to excuse wrong-house raids, what about the Collinsville cases made it nondiscretionary? The govt. parried by saying the facts aren't in question, but it matters for determining intent.
FYI: Oral arguments in the wrong-house no-knock raid case at SCOTUS are ongoing here: www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
Live Oral Argument Audio
Live Oral Argument Audio
www.supremecourt.gov
April 30, 2025 at 7:56 PM
It's maddening the threads that the Supremes allow to drop
EG, if Congress intended the discretionary exemption to excuse wrong-house raids, what about the Collinsville cases made it nondiscretionary? The govt. parried by saying the facts aren't in question, but it matters for determining intent.
EG, if Congress intended the discretionary exemption to excuse wrong-house raids, what about the Collinsville cases made it nondiscretionary? The govt. parried by saying the facts aren't in question, but it matters for determining intent.
Why are the historians not screaming about this?
Vance, Bannon, and others have called Trump "America's Caesar"
Part of Caesar's journey from "demagogue nobody took seriously" to "the guy who ended democracy and republicanism" is becoming Pontifex Maximus, a title now held by the Pope
Vance, Bannon, and others have called Trump "America's Caesar"
Part of Caesar's journey from "demagogue nobody took seriously" to "the guy who ended democracy and republicanism" is becoming Pontifex Maximus, a title now held by the Pope
April 30, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Why are the historians not screaming about this?
Vance, Bannon, and others have called Trump "America's Caesar"
Part of Caesar's journey from "demagogue nobody took seriously" to "the guy who ended democracy and republicanism" is becoming Pontifex Maximus, a title now held by the Pope
Vance, Bannon, and others have called Trump "America's Caesar"
Part of Caesar's journey from "demagogue nobody took seriously" to "the guy who ended democracy and republicanism" is becoming Pontifex Maximus, a title now held by the Pope
This author is so frustratingly close to getting the point that would completely flip his thesis
CLIs are NOT natural language interfaces. A fundamental property of language is *productivity*, any speaker can invent a new meaning that any other speaker can understand
julian.digital/2025/03/27/t...
CLIs are NOT natural language interfaces. A fundamental property of language is *productivity*, any speaker can invent a new meaning that any other speaker can understand
julian.digital/2025/03/27/t...
The case against conversational interfaces
Conversational interfaces are a bit of a meme. Every couple of years a shiny new AI development emerges and people in tech go "This is it! The next computing paradigm is here! We'll only use natural l...
julian.digital
April 2, 2025 at 1:11 PM
This author is so frustratingly close to getting the point that would completely flip his thesis
CLIs are NOT natural language interfaces. A fundamental property of language is *productivity*, any speaker can invent a new meaning that any other speaker can understand
julian.digital/2025/03/27/t...
CLIs are NOT natural language interfaces. A fundamental property of language is *productivity*, any speaker can invent a new meaning that any other speaker can understand
julian.digital/2025/03/27/t...