Toren Hynes, M.Sc.
@torenwx.bsky.social
PhD Candidate with Dasog Lab at Dalhousie University. Amateur hurricane tracker. NAFO Fella.
Proud Nasty Canadian.
Proud Nasty Canadian.
The scenario from the RGEM looks very believable.
Rain along the coast, and the precip starting as rain inland, but turning to snow as heavy precip rates result in cooling of the air column late Tuesday night.
Given how wet this snow will likely be, I expect an SLR of 7:1 instead of 10:1. #NSwx
Rain along the coast, and the precip starting as rain inland, but turning to snow as heavy precip rates result in cooling of the air column late Tuesday night.
Given how wet this snow will likely be, I expect an SLR of 7:1 instead of 10:1. #NSwx
November 30, 2025 at 12:07 PM
The scenario from the RGEM looks very believable.
Rain along the coast, and the precip starting as rain inland, but turning to snow as heavy precip rates result in cooling of the air column late Tuesday night.
Given how wet this snow will likely be, I expect an SLR of 7:1 instead of 10:1. #NSwx
Rain along the coast, and the precip starting as rain inland, but turning to snow as heavy precip rates result in cooling of the air column late Tuesday night.
Given how wet this snow will likely be, I expect an SLR of 7:1 instead of 10:1. #NSwx
Wow, that's quite the bomb cyclone developing in the Cabot Strait on Tuesday. 1000 --> 947 mbar in 18 hours? Even the January 2018 nor'easter only made it to 948 mbar.
November 2, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Wow, that's quite the bomb cyclone developing in the Cabot Strait on Tuesday. 1000 --> 947 mbar in 18 hours? Even the January 2018 nor'easter only made it to 948 mbar.
Here's the hour-by-hour progression according to the RGEM.
*The non-tropical system moves in on Friday AM with gusty SE winds.
*#MELISSA makes landfall in Nfld on midnight Friday. Winds over NS become stronger and SW.
*Clearing through Saturday.
#NSStorm #NBStorm #NLStorm #PEStorm
*The non-tropical system moves in on Friday AM with gusty SE winds.
*#MELISSA makes landfall in Nfld on midnight Friday. Winds over NS become stronger and SW.
*Clearing through Saturday.
#NSStorm #NBStorm #NLStorm #PEStorm
October 30, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Morning look at Hurricane #MELISSA.
Not the perfect Category 5 monster it was a couple days ago, but still a powerful hurricane with winds to 170 km/h.
It's on its way towards #Newfoundland now, where it'll either brush past or make landfall as a hurricane-strength post-tropical cyclone. #NLStorm
Not the perfect Category 5 monster it was a couple days ago, but still a powerful hurricane with winds to 170 km/h.
It's on its way towards #Newfoundland now, where it'll either brush past or make landfall as a hurricane-strength post-tropical cyclone. #NLStorm
October 30, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Morning look at Hurricane #MELISSA.
Not the perfect Category 5 monster it was a couple days ago, but still a powerful hurricane with winds to 170 km/h.
It's on its way towards #Newfoundland now, where it'll either brush past or make landfall as a hurricane-strength post-tropical cyclone. #NLStorm
Not the perfect Category 5 monster it was a couple days ago, but still a powerful hurricane with winds to 170 km/h.
It's on its way towards #Newfoundland now, where it'll either brush past or make landfall as a hurricane-strength post-tropical cyclone. #NLStorm
After making landfall in Jamaica earlier today, #MELISSA doesn't seem to be wasting any time in getting reorganized now that it's back over water, with vortical hot towers wrapping around the eyewall once again.
I could see her getting back up to Cat 4 before Cuba.
I could see her getting back up to Cat 4 before Cuba.
October 28, 2025 at 11:55 PM
After making landfall in Jamaica earlier today, #MELISSA doesn't seem to be wasting any time in getting reorganized now that it's back over water, with vortical hot towers wrapping around the eyewall once again.
I could see her getting back up to Cat 4 before Cuba.
I could see her getting back up to Cat 4 before Cuba.
Usually when a model's track is very different from that of the other models, I consider it an outlier.
Yet the CMC has been extremely consistent, insisting that #MELISSA will be captured by a trough over Georgia and pulled into Atlantic Canada.
Let's see. #NSStorm #NLStorm #NBStorm #PEStorm (1/x)
Yet the CMC has been extremely consistent, insisting that #MELISSA will be captured by a trough over Georgia and pulled into Atlantic Canada.
Let's see. #NSStorm #NLStorm #NBStorm #PEStorm (1/x)
October 27, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Hurricane #MELISSA is looking extremely impressive on IR satellite this evening.
Although it looks like it *should* be a Cat 5 based on this presentation, aircraft recon data (940 mbar, 115 kt surface wind via dropsonde) show this is actually *only* a low-end Cat 4.
Still, a dangerous situation.
Although it looks like it *should* be a Cat 5 based on this presentation, aircraft recon data (940 mbar, 115 kt surface wind via dropsonde) show this is actually *only* a low-end Cat 4.
Still, a dangerous situation.
October 26, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Hurricane #MELISSA is looking extremely impressive on IR satellite this evening.
Although it looks like it *should* be a Cat 5 based on this presentation, aircraft recon data (940 mbar, 115 kt surface wind via dropsonde) show this is actually *only* a low-end Cat 4.
Still, a dangerous situation.
Although it looks like it *should* be a Cat 5 based on this presentation, aircraft recon data (940 mbar, 115 kt surface wind via dropsonde) show this is actually *only* a low-end Cat 4.
Still, a dangerous situation.
HRDPS is showing a round of thunderstorms moving through #NovaScotia this evening, though they will likely weaken as they move into Cape Breton.
Be careful if you're on the roads: 15-20mm of rain per hour and fallen leaves are ideal conditions for hydroplaning!
Be careful if you're on the roads: 15-20mm of rain per hour and fallen leaves are ideal conditions for hydroplaning!
October 23, 2025 at 1:19 AM
HRDPS is showing a round of thunderstorms moving through #NovaScotia this evening, though they will likely weaken as they move into Cape Breton.
Be careful if you're on the roads: 15-20mm of rain per hour and fallen leaves are ideal conditions for hydroplaning!
Be careful if you're on the roads: 15-20mm of rain per hour and fallen leaves are ideal conditions for hydroplaning!