Toren Hynes, M.Sc.
@torenwx.bsky.social
PhD Candidate with Dasog Lab at Dalhousie University. Amateur hurricane tracker. NAFO Fella.
Proud Nasty Canadian.
Proud Nasty Canadian.
The scenario from the RGEM looks very believable.
Rain along the coast, and the precip starting as rain inland, but turning to snow as heavy precip rates result in cooling of the air column late Tuesday night.
Given how wet this snow will likely be, I expect an SLR of 7:1 instead of 10:1. #NSwx
Rain along the coast, and the precip starting as rain inland, but turning to snow as heavy precip rates result in cooling of the air column late Tuesday night.
Given how wet this snow will likely be, I expect an SLR of 7:1 instead of 10:1. #NSwx
November 30, 2025 at 12:07 PM
The scenario from the RGEM looks very believable.
Rain along the coast, and the precip starting as rain inland, but turning to snow as heavy precip rates result in cooling of the air column late Tuesday night.
Given how wet this snow will likely be, I expect an SLR of 7:1 instead of 10:1. #NSwx
Rain along the coast, and the precip starting as rain inland, but turning to snow as heavy precip rates result in cooling of the air column late Tuesday night.
Given how wet this snow will likely be, I expect an SLR of 7:1 instead of 10:1. #NSwx
Looking at the possible #snow storm on #Wednesday for #NovaScotia.
We know: there will be a fairly potent low-pressure system then.
We don't know:
1) Where exactly will it track?
2) How deep will the cold air be?
This matters A LOT for who gets snow and who gets rain. #NSwx #NBwx #NLwx #PEwx
We know: there will be a fairly potent low-pressure system then.
We don't know:
1) Where exactly will it track?
2) How deep will the cold air be?
This matters A LOT for who gets snow and who gets rain. #NSwx #NBwx #NLwx #PEwx
November 30, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Looking at the possible #snow storm on #Wednesday for #NovaScotia.
We know: there will be a fairly potent low-pressure system then.
We don't know:
1) Where exactly will it track?
2) How deep will the cold air be?
This matters A LOT for who gets snow and who gets rain. #NSwx #NBwx #NLwx #PEwx
We know: there will be a fairly potent low-pressure system then.
We don't know:
1) Where exactly will it track?
2) How deep will the cold air be?
This matters A LOT for who gets snow and who gets rain. #NSwx #NBwx #NLwx #PEwx
Wow, that's quite the bomb cyclone developing in the Cabot Strait on Tuesday. 1000 --> 947 mbar in 18 hours? Even the January 2018 nor'easter only made it to 948 mbar.
November 2, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Wow, that's quite the bomb cyclone developing in the Cabot Strait on Tuesday. 1000 --> 947 mbar in 18 hours? Even the January 2018 nor'easter only made it to 948 mbar.
Here's the hour-by-hour progression according to the RGEM.
*The non-tropical system moves in on Friday AM with gusty SE winds.
*#MELISSA makes landfall in Nfld on midnight Friday. Winds over NS become stronger and SW.
*Clearing through Saturday.
#NSStorm #NBStorm #NLStorm #PEStorm
*The non-tropical system moves in on Friday AM with gusty SE winds.
*#MELISSA makes landfall in Nfld on midnight Friday. Winds over NS become stronger and SW.
*Clearing through Saturday.
#NSStorm #NBStorm #NLStorm #PEStorm
October 30, 2025 at 2:13 PM
The GFS shows the storm's likely structure approaching Newfoundland, with the highest winds south and east of the centre.
This is common for fast-moving (ex)-hurricanes in Atlantic Canada, where the eastern side is windy and the western side rainy. #NLStorm
This is common for fast-moving (ex)-hurricanes in Atlantic Canada, where the eastern side is windy and the western side rainy. #NLStorm
October 30, 2025 at 2:08 PM
The GFS shows the storm's likely structure approaching Newfoundland, with the highest winds south and east of the centre.
This is common for fast-moving (ex)-hurricanes in Atlantic Canada, where the eastern side is windy and the western side rainy. #NLStorm
This is common for fast-moving (ex)-hurricanes in Atlantic Canada, where the eastern side is windy and the western side rainy. #NLStorm
Morning model runs for #MELISSA.
There's a good chance that the centre of the storm makes landfall in Eastern Newfoundland, but it's not a lock.
If the storm remains offshore, impacts will be mostly rain across Atlantic Canada, but a landfall could bring high winds to the Avalon. #NLStorm #NSStorm
There's a good chance that the centre of the storm makes landfall in Eastern Newfoundland, but it's not a lock.
If the storm remains offshore, impacts will be mostly rain across Atlantic Canada, but a landfall could bring high winds to the Avalon. #NLStorm #NSStorm
October 30, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Morning look at Hurricane #MELISSA.
Not the perfect Category 5 monster it was a couple days ago, but still a powerful hurricane with winds to 170 km/h.
It's on its way towards #Newfoundland now, where it'll either brush past or make landfall as a hurricane-strength post-tropical cyclone. #NLStorm
Not the perfect Category 5 monster it was a couple days ago, but still a powerful hurricane with winds to 170 km/h.
It's on its way towards #Newfoundland now, where it'll either brush past or make landfall as a hurricane-strength post-tropical cyclone. #NLStorm
October 30, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Morning look at Hurricane #MELISSA.
Not the perfect Category 5 monster it was a couple days ago, but still a powerful hurricane with winds to 170 km/h.
It's on its way towards #Newfoundland now, where it'll either brush past or make landfall as a hurricane-strength post-tropical cyclone. #NLStorm
Not the perfect Category 5 monster it was a couple days ago, but still a powerful hurricane with winds to 170 km/h.
It's on its way towards #Newfoundland now, where it'll either brush past or make landfall as a hurricane-strength post-tropical cyclone. #NLStorm
After making landfall in Jamaica earlier today, #MELISSA doesn't seem to be wasting any time in getting reorganized now that it's back over water, with vortical hot towers wrapping around the eyewall once again.
I could see her getting back up to Cat 4 before Cuba.
I could see her getting back up to Cat 4 before Cuba.
October 28, 2025 at 11:55 PM
After making landfall in Jamaica earlier today, #MELISSA doesn't seem to be wasting any time in getting reorganized now that it's back over water, with vortical hot towers wrapping around the eyewall once again.
I could see her getting back up to Cat 4 before Cuba.
I could see her getting back up to Cat 4 before Cuba.
12Z ensembles are out, and.. maybe the CMC wasn't entirely out to lunch.
The Euro (and the GFS) ensembles are mostly suggesting an out-to-sea track, but the Google DeepMind and CMC ensembles are much further west and closer to Atlantic Canada.
Will watch. #MELISSA
#NSStorm #NLStorm #NBStorm #PEStorm
The Euro (and the GFS) ensembles are mostly suggesting an out-to-sea track, but the Google DeepMind and CMC ensembles are much further west and closer to Atlantic Canada.
Will watch. #MELISSA
#NSStorm #NLStorm #NBStorm #PEStorm
October 27, 2025 at 8:00 PM
But wait, we're not done with subtle differences. The CMC has a slightly stronger ridge near Bermuda, and the cutoff low slightly farther south and east over the Southeast US, and a slightly farther west storm, than the other models.
This tiny difference is enough to drastically affect track. (5/x)
This tiny difference is enough to drastically affect track. (5/x)
October 27, 2025 at 6:31 PM
But wait, we're not done with subtle differences. The CMC has a slightly stronger ridge near Bermuda, and the cutoff low slightly farther south and east over the Southeast US, and a slightly farther west storm, than the other models.
This tiny difference is enough to drastically affect track. (5/x)
This tiny difference is enough to drastically affect track. (5/x)
The key to whether #MELISSA gets close to Atlantic Canada may well lie in what it does over the next 36 hours.
Notice that the CMC has the storm moving a bit slower and a bit further west than the other major global models.
This will matter a lot! (4/x)
Notice that the CMC has the storm moving a bit slower and a bit further west than the other major global models.
This will matter a lot! (4/x)
October 27, 2025 at 6:21 PM
The key to whether #MELISSA gets close to Atlantic Canada may well lie in what it does over the next 36 hours.
Notice that the CMC has the storm moving a bit slower and a bit further west than the other major global models.
This will matter a lot! (4/x)
Notice that the CMC has the storm moving a bit slower and a bit further west than the other major global models.
This will matter a lot! (4/x)
Taking a look at the 'superensemble' shows just how much the CMC is an outlier with the storm.
Most of the members keep the storm well away from Atlantic Canada, few bring it to Newfoundland, and even fewer to NS. (3/x)
Most of the members keep the storm well away from Atlantic Canada, few bring it to Newfoundland, and even fewer to NS. (3/x)
October 27, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Taking a look at the 'superensemble' shows just how much the CMC is an outlier with the storm.
Most of the members keep the storm well away from Atlantic Canada, few bring it to Newfoundland, and even fewer to NS. (3/x)
Most of the members keep the storm well away from Atlantic Canada, few bring it to Newfoundland, and even fewer to NS. (3/x)
Here's the other major weather models (12Z today) for #MELISSA at the same time.
They all avoid a direct Canadian landfall, but do bring it close enough that a mid-latitude cyclone will be able to tap into its moisture, likely enhancing rainfall totals and helping alleviate #drought. (2/x)
They all avoid a direct Canadian landfall, but do bring it close enough that a mid-latitude cyclone will be able to tap into its moisture, likely enhancing rainfall totals and helping alleviate #drought. (2/x)
October 27, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Usually when a model's track is very different from that of the other models, I consider it an outlier.
Yet the CMC has been extremely consistent, insisting that #MELISSA will be captured by a trough over Georgia and pulled into Atlantic Canada.
Let's see. #NSStorm #NLStorm #NBStorm #PEStorm (1/x)
Yet the CMC has been extremely consistent, insisting that #MELISSA will be captured by a trough over Georgia and pulled into Atlantic Canada.
Let's see. #NSStorm #NLStorm #NBStorm #PEStorm (1/x)
October 27, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Looks like #MELISSA is still intensifying and fast, with the pressure dropping 8 mbar between the two centre fixes by the 53rd WRS.
Winds are now up to 145 knots and it's highly likely they'll continue to rise even more.
Truly awful scenario for Jamaica...
Winds are now up to 145 knots and it's highly likely they'll continue to rise even more.
Truly awful scenario for Jamaica...
October 27, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Looks like #MELISSA is still intensifying and fast, with the pressure dropping 8 mbar between the two centre fixes by the 53rd WRS.
Winds are now up to 145 knots and it's highly likely they'll continue to rise even more.
Truly awful scenario for Jamaica...
Winds are now up to 145 knots and it's highly likely they'll continue to rise even more.
Truly awful scenario for Jamaica...
Looks like #MELISSA's winds have finally caught up to the improved satellite presentation.
This is a Category 5 hurricane, no doubt.
The dropsonde in the eye has that classic V-shaped look, indicative of a very powerful storm.
This is a Category 5 hurricane, no doubt.
The dropsonde in the eye has that classic V-shaped look, indicative of a very powerful storm.
October 27, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Looks like #MELISSA's winds have finally caught up to the improved satellite presentation.
This is a Category 5 hurricane, no doubt.
The dropsonde in the eye has that classic V-shaped look, indicative of a very powerful storm.
This is a Category 5 hurricane, no doubt.
The dropsonde in the eye has that classic V-shaped look, indicative of a very powerful storm.
Hurricane #MELISSA is looking extremely impressive on IR satellite this evening.
Although it looks like it *should* be a Cat 5 based on this presentation, aircraft recon data (940 mbar, 115 kt surface wind via dropsonde) show this is actually *only* a low-end Cat 4.
Still, a dangerous situation.
Although it looks like it *should* be a Cat 5 based on this presentation, aircraft recon data (940 mbar, 115 kt surface wind via dropsonde) show this is actually *only* a low-end Cat 4.
Still, a dangerous situation.
October 26, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Hurricane #MELISSA is looking extremely impressive on IR satellite this evening.
Although it looks like it *should* be a Cat 5 based on this presentation, aircraft recon data (940 mbar, 115 kt surface wind via dropsonde) show this is actually *only* a low-end Cat 4.
Still, a dangerous situation.
Although it looks like it *should* be a Cat 5 based on this presentation, aircraft recon data (940 mbar, 115 kt surface wind via dropsonde) show this is actually *only* a low-end Cat 4.
Still, a dangerous situation.
HRDPS is showing a round of thunderstorms moving through #NovaScotia this evening, though they will likely weaken as they move into Cape Breton.
Be careful if you're on the roads: 15-20mm of rain per hour and fallen leaves are ideal conditions for hydroplaning!
Be careful if you're on the roads: 15-20mm of rain per hour and fallen leaves are ideal conditions for hydroplaning!
October 23, 2025 at 1:19 AM
HRDPS is showing a round of thunderstorms moving through #NovaScotia this evening, though they will likely weaken as they move into Cape Breton.
Be careful if you're on the roads: 15-20mm of rain per hour and fallen leaves are ideal conditions for hydroplaning!
Be careful if you're on the roads: 15-20mm of rain per hour and fallen leaves are ideal conditions for hydroplaning!
I'm keeping a close eye on #MELISSA.
Yes, it's a tropical storm now, but I fully expect this to become a major hurricane, especially if it slowly drifts west like the CMC/Euro show.
This part of the Atlantic is known for being very favourable for strong hurricanes at this time of year.
Yes, it's a tropical storm now, but I fully expect this to become a major hurricane, especially if it slowly drifts west like the CMC/Euro show.
This part of the Atlantic is known for being very favourable for strong hurricanes at this time of year.
October 22, 2025 at 8:09 PM
I'm keeping a close eye on #MELISSA.
Yes, it's a tropical storm now, but I fully expect this to become a major hurricane, especially if it slowly drifts west like the CMC/Euro show.
This part of the Atlantic is known for being very favourable for strong hurricanes at this time of year.
Yes, it's a tropical storm now, but I fully expect this to become a major hurricane, especially if it slowly drifts west like the CMC/Euro show.
This part of the Atlantic is known for being very favourable for strong hurricanes at this time of year.