Callum Thomas
@topdowncharts.bsky.social
Head of Research & Founder at Topdown Charts
(chart-driven macro insights for investors)
(chart-driven macro insights for investors)
Weekly Insights - Edition 236 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-ins...
This week: global market update (risk-off!), commodity technicals, global bank surveys, credit spreads (and private credit), stocks vs bonds, global ex-US equities, GSV vs ULG...
This week: global market update (risk-off!), commodity technicals, global bank surveys, credit spreads (and private credit), stocks vs bonds, global ex-US equities, GSV vs ULG...
November 17, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Weekly Insights - Edition 236 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-ins...
This week: global market update (risk-off!), commodity technicals, global bank surveys, credit spreads (and private credit), stocks vs bonds, global ex-US equities, GSV vs ULG...
This week: global market update (risk-off!), commodity technicals, global bank surveys, credit spreads (and private credit), stocks vs bonds, global ex-US equities, GSV vs ULG...
With Bitcoin heading into a bear market (down -25% from top-to-bottom), the gold vs bitcoin ratio is turning up off relative lows...
This could well be the start of a major breakout by gold vs bitcoin. So it’s something to keep an eye on as the macro-risk backdrop shifts.
This could well be the start of a major breakout by gold vs bitcoin. So it’s something to keep an eye on as the macro-risk backdrop shifts.
November 17, 2025 at 3:05 AM
With Bitcoin heading into a bear market (down -25% from top-to-bottom), the gold vs bitcoin ratio is turning up off relative lows...
This could well be the start of a major breakout by gold vs bitcoin. So it’s something to keep an eye on as the macro-risk backdrop shifts.
This could well be the start of a major breakout by gold vs bitcoin. So it’s something to keep an eye on as the macro-risk backdrop shifts.
Public Markets = pick the asset class 🤔
Private Markets = pick the manager 🧐
Mileage varies greatly across (but not so much within) asset classes for Public assets -- while mileage varies enormously *within* asset classes for the very opaque, illiquid, and idiosyncratic Private markets...
From:
Private Markets = pick the manager 🧐
Mileage varies greatly across (but not so much within) asset classes for Public assets -- while mileage varies enormously *within* asset classes for the very opaque, illiquid, and idiosyncratic Private markets...
From:
November 17, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Public Markets = pick the asset class 🤔
Private Markets = pick the manager 🧐
Mileage varies greatly across (but not so much within) asset classes for Public assets -- while mileage varies enormously *within* asset classes for the very opaque, illiquid, and idiosyncratic Private markets...
From:
Private Markets = pick the manager 🧐
Mileage varies greatly across (but not so much within) asset classes for Public assets -- while mileage varies enormously *within* asset classes for the very opaque, illiquid, and idiosyncratic Private markets...
From:
USA vs the World
If you buy an index fund on the MSCI World index (Developed markets), only about 25% of that fund will be invested in the ""world""
The ACWI is a little better, with US "only" ~65% but that still leaves RoW at a miniscule and hardly diversifying 35%
...is it time to rethink globa
If you buy an index fund on the MSCI World index (Developed markets), only about 25% of that fund will be invested in the ""world""
The ACWI is a little better, with US "only" ~65% but that still leaves RoW at a miniscule and hardly diversifying 35%
...is it time to rethink globa
November 16, 2025 at 3:00 AM
USA vs the World
If you buy an index fund on the MSCI World index (Developed markets), only about 25% of that fund will be invested in the ""world""
The ACWI is a little better, with US "only" ~65% but that still leaves RoW at a miniscule and hardly diversifying 35%
...is it time to rethink globa
If you buy an index fund on the MSCI World index (Developed markets), only about 25% of that fund will be invested in the ""world""
The ACWI is a little better, with US "only" ~65% but that still leaves RoW at a miniscule and hardly diversifying 35%
...is it time to rethink globa
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
This week: bitcoin harbingers, private market problems, valuations and market cycle perspectives, upside opportunities, biotech and healthcare, practical issues...
This week: bitcoin harbingers, private market problems, valuations and market cycle perspectives, upside opportunities, biotech and healthcare, practical issues...
November 15, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
This week: bitcoin harbingers, private market problems, valuations and market cycle perspectives, upside opportunities, biotech and healthcare, practical issues...
This week: bitcoin harbingers, private market problems, valuations and market cycle perspectives, upside opportunities, biotech and healthcare, practical issues...
Time Spent in Recession by Decade
Don't say it...
(...don't jinx it!)
chart featured here: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Don't say it...
(...don't jinx it!)
chart featured here: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
November 15, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Time Spent in Recession by Decade
Don't say it...
(...don't jinx it!)
chart featured here: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Don't say it...
(...don't jinx it!)
chart featured here: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Everybody knows stocks are expensive.
But so is gold...
How does this impact on how things might unfold for the stock/bond ratio?
Some perspectives: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
But so is gold...
How does this impact on how things might unfold for the stock/bond ratio?
Some perspectives: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
November 14, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Everybody knows stocks are expensive.
But so is gold...
How does this impact on how things might unfold for the stock/bond ratio?
Some perspectives: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
But so is gold...
How does this impact on how things might unfold for the stock/bond ratio?
Some perspectives: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Weekly Macro/Multi-Asset report
-Global loan demand
-Credit spreads (and private credit)
-Stocks vs Bonds
-Global ex-US Equities
-GSV vs ULG
Download the report here: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-mac...
-Global loan demand
-Credit spreads (and private credit)
-Stocks vs Bonds
-Global ex-US Equities
-GSV vs ULG
Download the report here: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-mac...
November 14, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Weekly Macro/Multi-Asset report
-Global loan demand
-Credit spreads (and private credit)
-Stocks vs Bonds
-Global ex-US Equities
-GSV vs ULG
Download the report here: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-mac...
-Global loan demand
-Credit spreads (and private credit)
-Stocks vs Bonds
-Global ex-US Equities
-GSV vs ULG
Download the report here: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-mac...
Did you know...
...the higher the valuation, the lower future returns are likely to be?
And we see this playout in both *absolute* and *relative* returns
Detail: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/important-...
...the higher the valuation, the lower future returns are likely to be?
And we see this playout in both *absolute* and *relative* returns
Detail: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/important-...
November 14, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Did you know...
...the higher the valuation, the lower future returns are likely to be?
And we see this playout in both *absolute* and *relative* returns
Detail: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/important-...
...the higher the valuation, the lower future returns are likely to be?
And we see this playout in both *absolute* and *relative* returns
Detail: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/important-...
Tide is Turning... 👀
"I keep coming back to this chart as barometer of speculative risk appetite and liquidity (+potential early-warning indicator). To that end, with bitcoin rolling over and tech topping out, it’s not a good sign."
From: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
"I keep coming back to this chart as barometer of speculative risk appetite and liquidity (+potential early-warning indicator). To that end, with bitcoin rolling over and tech topping out, it’s not a good sign."
From: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
November 13, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Tide is Turning... 👀
"I keep coming back to this chart as barometer of speculative risk appetite and liquidity (+potential early-warning indicator). To that end, with bitcoin rolling over and tech topping out, it’s not a good sign."
From: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
"I keep coming back to this chart as barometer of speculative risk appetite and liquidity (+potential early-warning indicator). To that end, with bitcoin rolling over and tech topping out, it’s not a good sign."
From: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
The "Relative Return Procession" is progressing...
Next up?
Gold breaking out vs stocks. 👀
Next up?
Gold breaking out vs stocks. 👀
November 13, 2025 at 5:01 PM
The "Relative Return Procession" is progressing...
Next up?
Gold breaking out vs stocks. 👀
Next up?
Gold breaking out vs stocks. 👀
"in the long-run stocks go up"
Yep.
But sometimes they not only don't go up, but actually get f----d up.
Here's some horrific examples.
As featured in the Weekly ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Yep.
But sometimes they not only don't go up, but actually get f----d up.
Here's some horrific examples.
As featured in the Weekly ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
November 13, 2025 at 3:00 AM
"in the long-run stocks go up"
Yep.
But sometimes they not only don't go up, but actually get f----d up.
Here's some horrific examples.
As featured in the Weekly ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Yep.
But sometimes they not only don't go up, but actually get f----d up.
Here's some horrific examples.
As featured in the Weekly ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Semi's Sign 'o the Times...
Bulls: this is fine, this is the new normal, it's backed by earnings, it's high for good reason.
Bears: this is dot-com 2.0, earnings are unsustainable, AI bubble.
The Truth?
Probably somewhere in between: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Bulls: this is fine, this is the new normal, it's backed by earnings, it's high for good reason.
Bears: this is dot-com 2.0, earnings are unsustainable, AI bubble.
The Truth?
Probably somewhere in between: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
November 12, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Semi's Sign 'o the Times...
Bulls: this is fine, this is the new normal, it's backed by earnings, it's high for good reason.
Bears: this is dot-com 2.0, earnings are unsustainable, AI bubble.
The Truth?
Probably somewhere in between: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Bulls: this is fine, this is the new normal, it's backed by earnings, it's high for good reason.
Bears: this is dot-com 2.0, earnings are unsustainable, AI bubble.
The Truth?
Probably somewhere in between: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Gold Bull Consolidations
It's entirely normal for big gold bull markets to have long pauses, and if anything the entire up-move in gold almost only happens over a few key weeks and days...
Further thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
It's entirely normal for big gold bull markets to have long pauses, and if anything the entire up-move in gold almost only happens over a few key weeks and days...
Further thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
November 12, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Gold Bull Consolidations
It's entirely normal for big gold bull markets to have long pauses, and if anything the entire up-move in gold almost only happens over a few key weeks and days...
Further thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
It's entirely normal for big gold bull markets to have long pauses, and if anything the entire up-move in gold almost only happens over a few key weeks and days...
Further thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Global Equities "Relative Value Trinity"
...something for those focused on the next 3-5 years and beyond (vs the next 3-5 days or hours for that matter!)
Explained: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
...something for those focused on the next 3-5 years and beyond (vs the next 3-5 days or hours for that matter!)
Explained: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
November 12, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Global Equities "Relative Value Trinity"
...something for those focused on the next 3-5 years and beyond (vs the next 3-5 days or hours for that matter!)
Explained: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
...something for those focused on the next 3-5 years and beyond (vs the next 3-5 days or hours for that matter!)
Explained: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Big Breakout in Japanese stocks
(but no one believes it)
Conventional wisdom says Japan is demographically doomed, but the conventional wisdom is based on an incomplete understanding that has missed several major developments...
Here's the big picture: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
(but no one believes it)
Conventional wisdom says Japan is demographically doomed, but the conventional wisdom is based on an incomplete understanding that has missed several major developments...
Here's the big picture: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
November 12, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Big Breakout in Japanese stocks
(but no one believes it)
Conventional wisdom says Japan is demographically doomed, but the conventional wisdom is based on an incomplete understanding that has missed several major developments...
Here's the big picture: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
(but no one believes it)
Conventional wisdom says Japan is demographically doomed, but the conventional wisdom is based on an incomplete understanding that has missed several major developments...
Here's the big picture: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
AI Earnings Euphoria 👀
Wall Street, Investors, Consumers -- all agree on one thing: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Wall Street, Investors, Consumers -- all agree on one thing: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
November 12, 2025 at 12:24 AM
AI Earnings Euphoria 👀
Wall Street, Investors, Consumers -- all agree on one thing: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Wall Street, Investors, Consumers -- all agree on one thing: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
2026 Big Ideas Outlook Webinar
-big picture perspectives
-big moves underway already
-big ideas and things to watch for
Wednesday 2pm EST -- Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
-big picture perspectives
-big moves underway already
-big ideas and things to watch for
Wednesday 2pm EST -- Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
November 11, 2025 at 6:49 PM
2026 Big Ideas Outlook Webinar
-big picture perspectives
-big moves underway already
-big ideas and things to watch for
Wednesday 2pm EST -- Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
-big picture perspectives
-big moves underway already
-big ideas and things to watch for
Wednesday 2pm EST -- Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Gold Miners have been in a rang-trading stalemate vs stocks over the past decade, but there's a Big chance this stalemate gets broken, and soon...
Thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
November 11, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Gold Miners have been in a rang-trading stalemate vs stocks over the past decade, but there's a Big chance this stalemate gets broken, and soon...
Thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
The Great Deleveraging
Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...
US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows.
W
Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...
US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows.
W
November 11, 2025 at 3:00 AM
The Great Deleveraging
Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...
US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows.
W
Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...
US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows.
W
Chart of the Week - Commodities entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
"this is *the* key asset class to watch in the coming months and years"
"this is *the* key asset class to watch in the coming months and years"
November 10, 2025 at 11:54 PM
Chart of the Week - Commodities entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
"this is *the* key asset class to watch in the coming months and years"
"this is *the* key asset class to watch in the coming months and years"
The Gold/Stock ratio is breaking out of a Multi-Decade triangle pattern -- this could be the start of a major change in market regime...
Explained: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Explained: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
November 10, 2025 at 7:41 PM
The Gold/Stock ratio is breaking out of a Multi-Decade triangle pattern -- this could be the start of a major change in market regime...
Explained: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Explained: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Unbelievable and Unthinkable to many ---this expected returns table is not going to be popular.
What worked well in the past may not work so well in the future... but thanks to various biases and industry pressures, the below picture will be too hard a pill for most to swallow.
What worked well in the past may not work so well in the future... but thanks to various biases and industry pressures, the below picture will be too hard a pill for most to swallow.
November 10, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Unbelievable and Unthinkable to many ---this expected returns table is not going to be popular.
What worked well in the past may not work so well in the future... but thanks to various biases and industry pressures, the below picture will be too hard a pill for most to swallow.
What worked well in the past may not work so well in the future... but thanks to various biases and industry pressures, the below picture will be too hard a pill for most to swallow.
Weekly Insights - Edition 235 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-ins...
This week: global markets update, risk-off moves, renewable energy stocks, ESG ebb and flow, macro radar, monthly pack link, updated ideas table...
This week: global markets update, risk-off moves, renewable energy stocks, ESG ebb and flow, macro radar, monthly pack link, updated ideas table...
November 10, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Weekly Insights - Edition 235 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-ins...
This week: global markets update, risk-off moves, renewable energy stocks, ESG ebb and flow, macro radar, monthly pack link, updated ideas table...
This week: global markets update, risk-off moves, renewable energy stocks, ESG ebb and flow, macro radar, monthly pack link, updated ideas table...
ALERT: the latest edition of the "GoldNuggets Digest" will be sent out shortly, be sure to join the email list [free] to receive a copy: gold.topdowncharts.com/s/goldnuggets
November 10, 2025 at 1:51 AM
ALERT: the latest edition of the "GoldNuggets Digest" will be sent out shortly, be sure to join the email list [free] to receive a copy: gold.topdowncharts.com/s/goldnuggets