Callum Thomas
@topdowncharts.bsky.social
Head of Research & Founder at Topdown Charts
(chart-driven macro insights for investors)
(chart-driven macro insights for investors)
The Great Deleveraging
Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...
US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows.
W
Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...
US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows.
W
November 11, 2025 at 3:00 AM
The Great Deleveraging
Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...
US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows.
W
Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...
US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows.
W
Chart of the Week - Commodities entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
"this is *the* key asset class to watch in the coming months and years"
"this is *the* key asset class to watch in the coming months and years"
November 10, 2025 at 11:54 PM
Chart of the Week - Commodities entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
"this is *the* key asset class to watch in the coming months and years"
"this is *the* key asset class to watch in the coming months and years"
The Gold/Stock ratio is breaking out of a Multi-Decade triangle pattern -- this could be the start of a major change in market regime...
Explained: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Explained: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
November 10, 2025 at 7:41 PM
The Gold/Stock ratio is breaking out of a Multi-Decade triangle pattern -- this could be the start of a major change in market regime...
Explained: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Explained: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Unbelievable and Unthinkable to many ---this expected returns table is not going to be popular.
What worked well in the past may not work so well in the future... but thanks to various biases and industry pressures, the below picture will be too hard a pill for most to swallow.
What worked well in the past may not work so well in the future... but thanks to various biases and industry pressures, the below picture will be too hard a pill for most to swallow.
November 10, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Unbelievable and Unthinkable to many ---this expected returns table is not going to be popular.
What worked well in the past may not work so well in the future... but thanks to various biases and industry pressures, the below picture will be too hard a pill for most to swallow.
What worked well in the past may not work so well in the future... but thanks to various biases and industry pressures, the below picture will be too hard a pill for most to swallow.
Weekly Insights - Edition 235 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-ins...
This week: global markets update, risk-off moves, renewable energy stocks, ESG ebb and flow, macro radar, monthly pack link, updated ideas table...
This week: global markets update, risk-off moves, renewable energy stocks, ESG ebb and flow, macro radar, monthly pack link, updated ideas table...
November 10, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Weekly Insights - Edition 235 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-ins...
This week: global markets update, risk-off moves, renewable energy stocks, ESG ebb and flow, macro radar, monthly pack link, updated ideas table...
This week: global markets update, risk-off moves, renewable energy stocks, ESG ebb and flow, macro radar, monthly pack link, updated ideas table...
ALERT: the latest edition of the "GoldNuggets Digest" will be sent out shortly, be sure to join the email list [free] to receive a copy: gold.topdowncharts.com/s/goldnuggets
November 10, 2025 at 1:51 AM
ALERT: the latest edition of the "GoldNuggets Digest" will be sent out shortly, be sure to join the email list [free] to receive a copy: gold.topdowncharts.com/s/goldnuggets
Forget measures like Volatility or the VIX ---the real measure of Risk for investors is this.
Even though stocks go up over the long-run, they can take large and extended forays to the downside.
(...aka what the finfluencers don't tell you about index investing!)
Even though stocks go up over the long-run, they can take large and extended forays to the downside.
(...aka what the finfluencers don't tell you about index investing!)
November 9, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Forget measures like Volatility or the VIX ---the real measure of Risk for investors is this.
Even though stocks go up over the long-run, they can take large and extended forays to the downside.
(...aka what the finfluencers don't tell you about index investing!)
Even though stocks go up over the long-run, they can take large and extended forays to the downside.
(...aka what the finfluencers don't tell you about index investing!)
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm coming soon... 👀
Meantime, check out last week's edition + subscribe: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Meantime, check out last week's edition + subscribe: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 2 November 2025
This week: monthly charts, seasonality, technical check, valuations, profit margin prophets, foreign owners, long-term asset returns, tech vs non-tech, global vs US...
www.chartstorm.info
November 8, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm coming soon... 👀
Meantime, check out last week's edition + subscribe: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Meantime, check out last week's edition + subscribe: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
You've probably seen the CAPE or PE10 ratios for global equities before, but have you seen the E-10?
This chart shows the 10-year moving average of earnings for global equities, and it is extremely telling...
Source: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/charts-of-...
This chart shows the 10-year moving average of earnings for global equities, and it is extremely telling...
Source: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/charts-of-...
November 8, 2025 at 3:00 AM
You've probably seen the CAPE or PE10 ratios for global equities before, but have you seen the E-10?
This chart shows the 10-year moving average of earnings for global equities, and it is extremely telling...
Source: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/charts-of-...
This chart shows the 10-year moving average of earnings for global equities, and it is extremely telling...
Source: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/charts-of-...
Market Cycle Guidebook - October 2025
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
Download the Report: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cyc...
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
Download the Report: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cyc...
November 7, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Market Cycle Guidebook - October 2025
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
Download the Report: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cyc...
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
Download the Report: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cyc...
Gold vs Silver vs Base Metals
This is one of the most important charts in commodities.
We are witnessing a transition and procession in price momentum from Monetary Metals to Industrial Metals.
And this is only part of the story... Read More: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
This is one of the most important charts in commodities.
We are witnessing a transition and procession in price momentum from Monetary Metals to Industrial Metals.
And this is only part of the story... Read More: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
November 7, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Gold vs Silver vs Base Metals
This is one of the most important charts in commodities.
We are witnessing a transition and procession in price momentum from Monetary Metals to Industrial Metals.
And this is only part of the story... Read More: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
This is one of the most important charts in commodities.
We are witnessing a transition and procession in price momentum from Monetary Metals to Industrial Metals.
And this is only part of the story... Read More: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Chart: Australian Stock/Bond Ratio
An Aussie anomaly is presenting potential angst for asset allocators: australia.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-aust...
An Aussie anomaly is presenting potential angst for asset allocators: australia.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-aust...
November 7, 2025 at 4:24 AM
Chart: Australian Stock/Bond Ratio
An Aussie anomaly is presenting potential angst for asset allocators: australia.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-aust...
An Aussie anomaly is presenting potential angst for asset allocators: australia.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-aust...
Why do stocks go up in the long-run?
(clue 👇 )
(p.s. also in there are some clues as to what makes them go down)
(clue 👇 )
(p.s. also in there are some clues as to what makes them go down)
November 7, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Why do stocks go up in the long-run?
(clue 👇 )
(p.s. also in there are some clues as to what makes them go down)
(clue 👇 )
(p.s. also in there are some clues as to what makes them go down)
It's rare for the S&P500 to peak directly after a 6-month streak (only 1 out of 5 times since 2009).
(and p.s. it's also seasonally rare for the S&P500 to decline during November)
Rare times ahead? 🤔
Read more on this issue: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
(and p.s. it's also seasonally rare for the S&P500 to decline during November)
Rare times ahead? 🤔
Read more on this issue: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
November 6, 2025 at 9:56 PM
It's rare for the S&P500 to peak directly after a 6-month streak (only 1 out of 5 times since 2009).
(and p.s. it's also seasonally rare for the S&P500 to decline during November)
Rare times ahead? 🤔
Read more on this issue: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
(and p.s. it's also seasonally rare for the S&P500 to decline during November)
Rare times ahead? 🤔
Read more on this issue: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Gold — Long-Term Trend
Zooming out to the big picture, the trend is still your friend for gold.
Zooming out to the big picture, the trend is still your friend for gold.
November 6, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Gold — Long-Term Trend
Zooming out to the big picture, the trend is still your friend for gold.
Zooming out to the big picture, the trend is still your friend for gold.
Stocks for the Long-Run? 🤔
This chart provides some useful (if contrarian) perspective and a reminder that although those were extremely different times back then to now in just about every way, markets don’t always just go up all the time every time.
There are plenty of examples across countrie
This chart provides some useful (if contrarian) perspective and a reminder that although those were extremely different times back then to now in just about every way, markets don’t always just go up all the time every time.
There are plenty of examples across countrie
November 6, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Stocks for the Long-Run? 🤔
This chart provides some useful (if contrarian) perspective and a reminder that although those were extremely different times back then to now in just about every way, markets don’t always just go up all the time every time.
There are plenty of examples across countrie
This chart provides some useful (if contrarian) perspective and a reminder that although those were extremely different times back then to now in just about every way, markets don’t always just go up all the time every time.
There are plenty of examples across countrie
2026 Opportunity?
How about commodities...
All this monetary easing we've seen this year (in absence of recession) is going to put a rocket under growth and that's going to brush up against tight supplies and capacity and hence inflation upside.
Further details:
How about commodities...
All this monetary easing we've seen this year (in absence of recession) is going to put a rocket under growth and that's going to brush up against tight supplies and capacity and hence inflation upside.
Further details:
November 5, 2025 at 10:20 PM
2026 Opportunity?
How about commodities...
All this monetary easing we've seen this year (in absence of recession) is going to put a rocket under growth and that's going to brush up against tight supplies and capacity and hence inflation upside.
Further details:
How about commodities...
All this monetary easing we've seen this year (in absence of recession) is going to put a rocket under growth and that's going to brush up against tight supplies and capacity and hence inflation upside.
Further details:
Tech stock valuations breaking out 📈
Bullish Take 👍 = it reflects rising profit margins, new growth AI paradigms, and meanwhile price + fundamental momentum is strong.
Bearish Take 👎 = represents overconfidence, statistical likelihood of low/negative future returns, and might even be based on un
Bullish Take 👍 = it reflects rising profit margins, new growth AI paradigms, and meanwhile price + fundamental momentum is strong.
Bearish Take 👎 = represents overconfidence, statistical likelihood of low/negative future returns, and might even be based on un
November 5, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Tech stock valuations breaking out 📈
Bullish Take 👍 = it reflects rising profit margins, new growth AI paradigms, and meanwhile price + fundamental momentum is strong.
Bearish Take 👎 = represents overconfidence, statistical likelihood of low/negative future returns, and might even be based on un
Bullish Take 👍 = it reflects rising profit margins, new growth AI paradigms, and meanwhile price + fundamental momentum is strong.
Bearish Take 👎 = represents overconfidence, statistical likelihood of low/negative future returns, and might even be based on un
Big things happening in Base Metals.
2 takeaways:
-base metals are breaking out
-(and global growth is set to surge)
Here's what to watch out for: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
2 takeaways:
-base metals are breaking out
-(and global growth is set to surge)
Here's what to watch out for: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
November 5, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Big things happening in Base Metals.
2 takeaways:
-base metals are breaking out
-(and global growth is set to surge)
Here's what to watch out for: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
2 takeaways:
-base metals are breaking out
-(and global growth is set to surge)
Here's what to watch out for: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Emerging Markets
-undervalued
-underowned
-underestimated
-undershooting trend
-undergoing a turning point?
And underappreciated upside when this cycle turns...
Analysis: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
-undervalued
-underowned
-underestimated
-undershooting trend
-undergoing a turning point?
And underappreciated upside when this cycle turns...
Analysis: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
November 5, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Emerging Markets
-undervalued
-underowned
-underestimated
-undershooting trend
-undergoing a turning point?
And underappreciated upside when this cycle turns...
Analysis: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
-undervalued
-underowned
-underestimated
-undershooting trend
-undergoing a turning point?
And underappreciated upside when this cycle turns...
Analysis: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Chart of the Week - Japan Breakout(s)
Japanese Equities: believe the breakout, big things are happening in Japan...
Read more [free]: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Japanese Equities: believe the breakout, big things are happening in Japan...
Read more [free]: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
November 4, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Chart of the Week - Japan Breakout(s)
Japanese Equities: believe the breakout, big things are happening in Japan...
Read more [free]: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Japanese Equities: believe the breakout, big things are happening in Japan...
Read more [free]: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Do you want the Good news or the Bad news?
Good news for #Gold = strong trend, monetary tailwinds, investor psychology.
The bad news = expensive valuations.
Here's the key things to consider (+methodology): gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Good news for #Gold = strong trend, monetary tailwinds, investor psychology.
The bad news = expensive valuations.
Here's the key things to consider (+methodology): gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
November 4, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Do you want the Good news or the Bad news?
Good news for #Gold = strong trend, monetary tailwinds, investor psychology.
The bad news = expensive valuations.
Here's the key things to consider (+methodology): gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Good news for #Gold = strong trend, monetary tailwinds, investor psychology.
The bad news = expensive valuations.
Here's the key things to consider (+methodology): gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Where do stock market returns come from?
-Dividends (consistently)
-Earnings growth (most of the time)
-Valuation changes (...sometimes yes/no)
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/chartstorm...
-Dividends (consistently)
-Earnings growth (most of the time)
-Valuation changes (...sometimes yes/no)
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/chartstorm...
November 4, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Where do stock market returns come from?
-Dividends (consistently)
-Earnings growth (most of the time)
-Valuation changes (...sometimes yes/no)
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/chartstorm...
-Dividends (consistently)
-Earnings growth (most of the time)
-Valuation changes (...sometimes yes/no)
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/chartstorm...
Very interesting things happening in Emerging Markets & Commodities.
There's a breakout from trading range + a big beautiful bottoming process running its course...
Full story: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
There's a breakout from trading range + a big beautiful bottoming process running its course...
Full story: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
November 4, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Very interesting things happening in Emerging Markets & Commodities.
There's a breakout from trading range + a big beautiful bottoming process running its course...
Full story: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
There's a breakout from trading range + a big beautiful bottoming process running its course...
Full story: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Onwards and Upwards in November?
November is one of the best months of the year historically [a close 3rd in terms of % positive at 69% and first place in terms of average return at 1.6%]
Of course it should also be highlighted that while the best November in history was +11%, the worst November i
November is one of the best months of the year historically [a close 3rd in terms of % positive at 69% and first place in terms of average return at 1.6%]
Of course it should also be highlighted that while the best November in history was +11%, the worst November i
November 3, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Onwards and Upwards in November?
November is one of the best months of the year historically [a close 3rd in terms of % positive at 69% and first place in terms of average return at 1.6%]
Of course it should also be highlighted that while the best November in history was +11%, the worst November i
November is one of the best months of the year historically [a close 3rd in terms of % positive at 69% and first place in terms of average return at 1.6%]
Of course it should also be highlighted that while the best November in history was +11%, the worst November i