Callum Thomas
@topdowncharts.bsky.social
Head of Research & Founder at Topdown Charts
(chart-driven macro insights for investors)
(chart-driven macro insights for investors)
You might have seen Emerging Markets breaking out...
But it's not just stock prices.
EM forward earnings estimates have smashed through to new all-time highs. This is a fundamental breakout to back the price breakout. 📈
But it's not just stock prices.
EM forward earnings estimates have smashed through to new all-time highs. This is a fundamental breakout to back the price breakout. 📈
February 17, 2026 at 7:17 PM
You might have seen Emerging Markets breaking out...
But it's not just stock prices.
EM forward earnings estimates have smashed through to new all-time highs. This is a fundamental breakout to back the price breakout. 📈
But it's not just stock prices.
EM forward earnings estimates have smashed through to new all-time highs. This is a fundamental breakout to back the price breakout. 📈
Think you know how the market cycle works?
Check your knowledge (+refresh) with this special edition of the Weekly ChartStorm which focuses on valuations, investment process, and market cycles...
Read it here: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Check your knowledge (+refresh) with this special edition of the Weekly ChartStorm which focuses on valuations, investment process, and market cycles...
Read it here: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
February 17, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Think you know how the market cycle works?
Check your knowledge (+refresh) with this special edition of the Weekly ChartStorm which focuses on valuations, investment process, and market cycles...
Read it here: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Check your knowledge (+refresh) with this special edition of the Weekly ChartStorm which focuses on valuations, investment process, and market cycles...
Read it here: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Bonds are in a bit of a stalemate...
You can see it in the way that the 10yr yield has compressed into a tight trading range AND in the way that bond market volatility has crunched down to the lows.
(...calm before the storm?)
You can see it in the way that the 10yr yield has compressed into a tight trading range AND in the way that bond market volatility has crunched down to the lows.
(...calm before the storm?)
February 17, 2026 at 3:04 AM
Bonds are in a bit of a stalemate...
You can see it in the way that the 10yr yield has compressed into a tight trading range AND in the way that bond market volatility has crunched down to the lows.
(...calm before the storm?)
You can see it in the way that the 10yr yield has compressed into a tight trading range AND in the way that bond market volatility has crunched down to the lows.
(...calm before the storm?)
Gold/Stock ratio breaking out...
Good for Gold?
or Bad for Stocks?
🤔
Good for Gold?
or Bad for Stocks?
🤔
February 16, 2026 at 10:15 PM
Gold/Stock ratio breaking out...
Good for Gold?
or Bad for Stocks?
🤔
Good for Gold?
or Bad for Stocks?
🤔
This chart captures the 2 most important themes in the Stockmarket right now.
1. Global vs US rotation
2. Top in tech stocks
For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change...
1. Global vs US rotation
2. Top in tech stocks
For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change...
February 16, 2026 at 7:45 PM
This chart captures the 2 most important themes in the Stockmarket right now.
1. Global vs US rotation
2. Top in tech stocks
For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change...
1. Global vs US rotation
2. Top in tech stocks
For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change...
The typical ETF investor has about half their portfolio in Tech Stocks (!)
😳
😳
February 16, 2026 at 3:47 AM
The typical ETF investor has about half their portfolio in Tech Stocks (!)
😳
😳
Commodities are cheap.
(+ improving technicals, supply constraints, light allocations, monetary/macro tailwinds)
Powerful setup...
(+ improving technicals, supply constraints, light allocations, monetary/macro tailwinds)
Powerful setup...
February 15, 2026 at 6:45 PM
Commodities are cheap.
(+ improving technicals, supply constraints, light allocations, monetary/macro tailwinds)
Powerful setup...
(+ improving technicals, supply constraints, light allocations, monetary/macro tailwinds)
Powerful setup...
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
This week: tech wreck check, software stocks, capex vs buybacks, private equity stocks, defensives strategy, energy sector setup...
This week: tech wreck check, software stocks, capex vs buybacks, private equity stocks, defensives strategy, energy sector setup...
February 14, 2026 at 9:31 PM
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
This week: tech wreck check, software stocks, capex vs buybacks, private equity stocks, defensives strategy, energy sector setup...
This week: tech wreck check, software stocks, capex vs buybacks, private equity stocks, defensives strategy, energy sector setup...
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm coming sooon...
Meantime, check out last week's edition + subscribe so you never miss it:
Meantime, check out last week's edition + subscribe so you never miss it:
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 8 February 2026
This week: bullish rotation, cash allocations, investor positioning, global equities, disclosure, EM fund flows...
www.chartstorm.info
February 14, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm coming sooon...
Meantime, check out last week's edition + subscribe so you never miss it:
Meantime, check out last week's edition + subscribe so you never miss it:
Biggest strength for Tech Stocks.
and their biggest weakness?
(stretched valuations are underpinned by stretched profit margins)
and their biggest weakness?
(stretched valuations are underpinned by stretched profit margins)
February 14, 2026 at 7:51 AM
Biggest strength for Tech Stocks.
and their biggest weakness?
(stretched valuations are underpinned by stretched profit margins)
and their biggest weakness?
(stretched valuations are underpinned by stretched profit margins)
Probably the most Unthinkable chart you can imagine...
US tech stocks have peaked and are losing ground vs global tech stocks.
Surely the US is not about to lose its Global Tech Leadership status??
US tech stocks have peaked and are losing ground vs global tech stocks.
Surely the US is not about to lose its Global Tech Leadership status??
February 13, 2026 at 12:08 AM
Probably the most Unthinkable chart you can imagine...
US tech stocks have peaked and are losing ground vs global tech stocks.
Surely the US is not about to lose its Global Tech Leadership status??
US tech stocks have peaked and are losing ground vs global tech stocks.
Surely the US is not about to lose its Global Tech Leadership status??
Outside of Precious Metals, investors have hardly any exposure to Commodities.
(this leaves them vulnerable to inflation flare-ups e.g. if global growth reaccelerates and commodity prices surge)
(this leaves them vulnerable to inflation flare-ups e.g. if global growth reaccelerates and commodity prices surge)
February 12, 2026 at 10:14 PM
Outside of Precious Metals, investors have hardly any exposure to Commodities.
(this leaves them vulnerable to inflation flare-ups e.g. if global growth reaccelerates and commodity prices surge)
(this leaves them vulnerable to inflation flare-ups e.g. if global growth reaccelerates and commodity prices surge)
The big issue is Tech Stocks have peaked, are on technically shaky ground ---AND this is coming from a starting point of stretched Valuations.
February 12, 2026 at 8:53 PM
The big issue is Tech Stocks have peaked, are on technically shaky ground ---AND this is coming from a starting point of stretched Valuations.
Gold is the best performing asset during the 2020's so far...
(and bonds are the worst)
How will the rest of the decade go?
(and bonds are the worst)
How will the rest of the decade go?
February 12, 2026 at 12:33 AM
Gold is the best performing asset during the 2020's so far...
(and bonds are the worst)
How will the rest of the decade go?
(and bonds are the worst)
How will the rest of the decade go?
Tech Sector Credit Risk! 👀
It was all fun and games with AI hype when it was just equity markets, but now that credit markets are involved it doesn't seem so fun anymore…
It was all fun and games with AI hype when it was just equity markets, but now that credit markets are involved it doesn't seem so fun anymore…
February 11, 2026 at 8:16 PM
Tech Sector Credit Risk! 👀
It was all fun and games with AI hype when it was just equity markets, but now that credit markets are involved it doesn't seem so fun anymore…
It was all fun and games with AI hype when it was just equity markets, but now that credit markets are involved it doesn't seem so fun anymore…
Off-Topic ChartStorm - Tech Stocks
Tech has topped, what's next?
Here's 10 charts outlining the situation and thoughts on the risks + opportunities: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Tech has topped, what's next?
Here's 10 charts outlining the situation and thoughts on the risks + opportunities: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
February 11, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Off-Topic ChartStorm - Tech Stocks
Tech has topped, what's next?
Here's 10 charts outlining the situation and thoughts on the risks + opportunities: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Tech has topped, what's next?
Here's 10 charts outlining the situation and thoughts on the risks + opportunities: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Higher for Longer risk...
It seems like in lieu of a deflationary recession the path of least resistance for bond yields is higher (for longer).
If that happens slowly and smoothly then it's probably no issue. But there are some risks if the path becomes more violent sharp...
It seems like in lieu of a deflationary recession the path of least resistance for bond yields is higher (for longer).
If that happens slowly and smoothly then it's probably no issue. But there are some risks if the path becomes more violent sharp...
February 11, 2026 at 2:05 AM
Higher for Longer risk...
It seems like in lieu of a deflationary recession the path of least resistance for bond yields is higher (for longer).
If that happens slowly and smoothly then it's probably no issue. But there are some risks if the path becomes more violent sharp...
It seems like in lieu of a deflationary recession the path of least resistance for bond yields is higher (for longer).
If that happens slowly and smoothly then it's probably no issue. But there are some risks if the path becomes more violent sharp...
Very interesting “Off-Topic“ ChartStorm on the way… 👀
Stay tuned: www.chartstorm.info/s/offtopic-c...
Stay tuned: www.chartstorm.info/s/offtopic-c...
Off-Topic ChartStorms | The Weekly ChartStorm | Callum Thomas | Substack
Similar format to the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm, but with semi-regular special focus topics spanning macro, markets, stocks, commodities, regions, and research... Click to read The Weekly ChartStorm, by Callum Thomas, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
www.chartstorm.info
February 10, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Very interesting “Off-Topic“ ChartStorm on the way… 👀
Stay tuned: www.chartstorm.info/s/offtopic-c...
Stay tuned: www.chartstorm.info/s/offtopic-c...
Commodity Stocks Front-Running 🧐
The equal-weighted basket of global commodity stocks is pointing to a new cyclical bull market in commodity prices.
The equal-weighted basket of global commodity stocks is pointing to a new cyclical bull market in commodity prices.
February 10, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Commodity Stocks Front-Running 🧐
The equal-weighted basket of global commodity stocks is pointing to a new cyclical bull market in commodity prices.
The equal-weighted basket of global commodity stocks is pointing to a new cyclical bull market in commodity prices.
You may think you know all about stockmarket seasonality...
but this special focus piece from the Weekly ChartStorm lays out a few more angles and details that you might not have considered before: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
but this special focus piece from the Weekly ChartStorm lays out a few more angles and details that you might not have considered before: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
February 10, 2026 at 4:01 PM
You may think you know all about stockmarket seasonality...
but this special focus piece from the Weekly ChartStorm lays out a few more angles and details that you might not have considered before: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
but this special focus piece from the Weekly ChartStorm lays out a few more angles and details that you might not have considered before: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Emerging Markets risk pricing sentiment.
Confidence vs Complacency?
Confidence vs Complacency?
February 10, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Emerging Markets risk pricing sentiment.
Confidence vs Complacency?
Confidence vs Complacency?
Chart of the Week - Cyclical Upturn
Global Growth Reacceleration is here!
Read all about it (free): entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Global Growth Reacceleration is here!
Read all about it (free): entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
February 9, 2026 at 10:01 PM
Chart of the Week - Cyclical Upturn
Global Growth Reacceleration is here!
Read all about it (free): entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Global Growth Reacceleration is here!
Read all about it (free): entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Commodities are following the monetary script...
2026 is the year of global growth reacceleration (and inflation resurgence).
Watch this space! 👀
2026 is the year of global growth reacceleration (and inflation resurgence).
Watch this space! 👀
February 9, 2026 at 8:50 PM
Commodities are following the monetary script...
2026 is the year of global growth reacceleration (and inflation resurgence).
Watch this space! 👀
2026 is the year of global growth reacceleration (and inflation resurgence).
Watch this space! 👀
Weekly Insights - Edition 248 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-ins...
This week: global markets update, global equity technicals (rotation in focus), macro radar, monthly pack link, ideas inventory...
This week: global markets update, global equity technicals (rotation in focus), macro radar, monthly pack link, ideas inventory...
February 9, 2026 at 4:09 AM
Weekly Insights - Edition 248 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-ins...
This week: global markets update, global equity technicals (rotation in focus), macro radar, monthly pack link, ideas inventory...
This week: global markets update, global equity technicals (rotation in focus), macro radar, monthly pack link, ideas inventory...
EM Equity Technicals 📈
Emerging Markets index broken out to all-time highs, comfortably above its (upward sloping) 200-day moving average, and widespread participation across countries.
Clear picture of strength.
Emerging Markets index broken out to all-time highs, comfortably above its (upward sloping) 200-day moving average, and widespread participation across countries.
Clear picture of strength.
February 8, 2026 at 7:41 PM
EM Equity Technicals 📈
Emerging Markets index broken out to all-time highs, comfortably above its (upward sloping) 200-day moving average, and widespread participation across countries.
Clear picture of strength.
Emerging Markets index broken out to all-time highs, comfortably above its (upward sloping) 200-day moving average, and widespread participation across countries.
Clear picture of strength.