Thomas Dvorak
@tomdvorak.bsky.social
Eurozone economist @OxfordEconomics
Economics alum @UniversityofGlasgow @UCL
Views & typos mine (who else's?)
Economics alum @UniversityofGlasgow @UCL
Views & typos mine (who else's?)
Join us tomorrow for the next instalment of our Eurozone Research Webinar, this time on the impacts of fiscal policy.
We will discuss Eurozone's fiscal position and the impact of the German fiscal stimulus & European defence spending drive.
Register here: www.oxfordeconomics.com/webinar/euro...
We will discuss Eurozone's fiscal position and the impact of the German fiscal stimulus & European defence spending drive.
Register here: www.oxfordeconomics.com/webinar/euro...
Eurozone Research Webinar: Economic impacts of fiscal policy
In this instalment of our Eurozone research webinar series, we will present our recent research on fiscal positions of various countries in the Eurozone and our assessment of the macroeconomic impact ...
www.oxfordeconomics.com
October 8, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Join us tomorrow for the next instalment of our Eurozone Research Webinar, this time on the impacts of fiscal policy.
We will discuss Eurozone's fiscal position and the impact of the German fiscal stimulus & European defence spending drive.
Register here: www.oxfordeconomics.com/webinar/euro...
We will discuss Eurozone's fiscal position and the impact of the German fiscal stimulus & European defence spending drive.
Register here: www.oxfordeconomics.com/webinar/euro...
Reposted by Thomas Dvorak
What seems to have been happening here is that in order to get the fair to middling improvements in output, it has become necessary to throw much more compute at every query, at a rate which has increased faster than the learning curve for the tokens themselves. That ... ain't good.
August 9, 2025 at 5:46 PM
What seems to have been happening here is that in order to get the fair to middling improvements in output, it has become necessary to throw much more compute at every query, at a rate which has increased faster than the learning curve for the tokens themselves. That ... ain't good.
Ticket barriers at Stansted Airport train station. Is it snowing in hell?
July 1, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Ticket barriers at Stansted Airport train station. Is it snowing in hell?
US tariffs are already having a harmful economic impact in Europe - but you won't see it in traditional data for months.
You'd be forgiven for not knowing what tariffs the US is charging. Is it 10%, the "reciprocal" 20% or are we at 50% now? Or from June? Or is that July?
1/11
You'd be forgiven for not knowing what tariffs the US is charging. Is it 10%, the "reciprocal" 20% or are we at 50% now? Or from June? Or is that July?
1/11
May 27, 2025 at 10:57 AM
US tariffs are already having a harmful economic impact in Europe - but you won't see it in traditional data for months.
You'd be forgiven for not knowing what tariffs the US is charging. Is it 10%, the "reciprocal" 20% or are we at 50% now? Or from June? Or is that July?
1/11
You'd be forgiven for not knowing what tariffs the US is charging. Is it 10%, the "reciprocal" 20% or are we at 50% now? Or from June? Or is that July?
1/11
Traditional macroeconomic data is slow - collected at low frequency and released with a long lag. This means that policymakers are effectively flying blind when making decisions.
At Oxford Economics, we use a variety of timely alternative data to get around this problem.
1/8
At Oxford Economics, we use a variety of timely alternative data to get around this problem.
1/8
May 23, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Traditional macroeconomic data is slow - collected at low frequency and released with a long lag. This means that policymakers are effectively flying blind when making decisions.
At Oxford Economics, we use a variety of timely alternative data to get around this problem.
1/8
At Oxford Economics, we use a variety of timely alternative data to get around this problem.
1/8
We take the view that US tariffs are a negative demand shock for Europe. But many have argued there might be adverse supply impacts too.
We agree there’s a risk, but so far it’s not visible in the data.
See our latest research briefing for detail.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...
1/10
We agree there’s a risk, but so far it’s not visible in the data.
See our latest research briefing for detail.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...
1/10
No signs of tariff-induced supply stress – yet
Our proprietary Eurozone Supply Stress Indicator shows that supply stress is still low, even after the US tariff announcement on April 2. Although the impact of tariffs will take time to feed through ...
www.oxfordeconomics.com
May 21, 2025 at 8:52 AM
We take the view that US tariffs are a negative demand shock for Europe. But many have argued there might be adverse supply impacts too.
We agree there’s a risk, but so far it’s not visible in the data.
See our latest research briefing for detail.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...
1/10
We agree there’s a risk, but so far it’s not visible in the data.
See our latest research briefing for detail.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...
1/10
Remember the FT chart about European tourist arrivals in the US dropping off a cliff in March?
This is him in April. Feel old yet?
1/9
This is him in April. Feel old yet?
1/9
May 15, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Remember the FT chart about European tourist arrivals in the US dropping off a cliff in March?
This is him in April. Feel old yet?
1/9
This is him in April. Feel old yet?
1/9
Reposted by Thomas Dvorak
We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!
American students turn to UK as Trump takes aim at US universities
https://www.ft.com/content/ebb2b7e7-5dea-47a2-8386-f12eda692c0f
https://www.ft.com/content/ebb2b7e7-5dea-47a2-8386-f12eda692c0f
American students turn to UK as Trump takes aim at US universities
Searches for British courses surge following US president’s assault on Ivy League institutions, data shows
www.ft.com
April 29, 2025 at 7:33 AM
We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!
What's the impact of trade policy uncertainty? Which countries & sectors are the most exposed to tariffs? Will the EU be hit by Chinese production surplus?
We'll discuss all of this & more in our Eurozone research webinar tomorrow - register below.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/econom...
We'll discuss all of this & more in our Eurozone research webinar tomorrow - register below.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/econom...
Economic impact of trade wars
President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements since Liberation Day have substantially changed the outlook for the world economy. We discuss our updated forecasts and the risks around it – how strongly...
www.oxfordeconomics.com
April 29, 2025 at 8:17 AM
What's the impact of trade policy uncertainty? Which countries & sectors are the most exposed to tariffs? Will the EU be hit by Chinese production surplus?
We'll discuss all of this & more in our Eurozone research webinar tomorrow - register below.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/econom...
We'll discuss all of this & more in our Eurozone research webinar tomorrow - register below.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/econom...
You may have seen this chart doing rounds of Twitter et al, showing that Europeans are not travelling to the US under Trump.
The chart shows steep drops in March. It's not wrong, but it is inaccurate.
1/10
The chart shows steep drops in March. It's not wrong, but it is inaccurate.
1/10
April 20, 2025 at 8:38 AM
You may have seen this chart doing rounds of Twitter et al, showing that Europeans are not travelling to the US under Trump.
The chart shows steep drops in March. It's not wrong, but it is inaccurate.
1/10
The chart shows steep drops in March. It's not wrong, but it is inaccurate.
1/10
Tariffs have been all the rage in the news but the war in Ukraine still rages on. The conflict - and its potential resolution - has important ramifications beyond Ukraine, especially for the CEE region.
We analyse those in our latest research (link at the end of thread).
1/8
We analyse those in our latest research (link at the end of thread).
1/8
April 14, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Tariffs have been all the rage in the news but the war in Ukraine still rages on. The conflict - and its potential resolution - has important ramifications beyond Ukraine, especially for the CEE region.
We analyse those in our latest research (link at the end of thread).
1/8
We analyse those in our latest research (link at the end of thread).
1/8
Join us for our CEE webinar next Monday (Apr 14). The CEE outlook is increasingly driven by external developments, and we'll go through all of them: tariffs, uncertainty, German fiscal stimulus, Chinese competition and the ceasefire prospects in Ukraine.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...
www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...
No shelter from the external storm for CEE economies
The small, open economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling against three external headwinds simultaneously: stuttering German industry, protectionist US trade policy, and overcapacit...
www.oxfordeconomics.com
April 11, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Join us for our CEE webinar next Monday (Apr 14). The CEE outlook is increasingly driven by external developments, and we'll go through all of them: tariffs, uncertainty, German fiscal stimulus, Chinese competition and the ceasefire prospects in Ukraine.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...
www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...
Few regions are as exposed to the shockwaves in the global economy as the CEE: US tariffs, German fiscal stimulus, Chinese competition & Russian geopolitical risk.
Join us next Monday (Apr 14) as we discuss all of this at our Oxford Economics webinar.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/no-she...
Join us next Monday (Apr 14) as we discuss all of this at our Oxford Economics webinar.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/no-she...
No shelter from the external storm for Central and Eastern Europe
In this EM webinar, we will explore how these external forces are shaping the CEE’s economic and strategy outlook.
www.oxfordeconomics.com
April 9, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Few regions are as exposed to the shockwaves in the global economy as the CEE: US tariffs, German fiscal stimulus, Chinese competition & Russian geopolitical risk.
Join us next Monday (Apr 14) as we discuss all of this at our Oxford Economics webinar.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/no-she...
Join us next Monday (Apr 14) as we discuss all of this at our Oxford Economics webinar.
www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/no-she...
@respektcz.bsky.social jsem si poprvé předplatil před 15 lety. Tehdy jsem byl ještě na střední škole a ani ve snu by mě nenapadlo, že se někdy objevím hned v úvodní anketě.
O to milejší překvapení to pro mě je - a samozřejmě i velká čest.
www.respekt.cz/tydenik/2025...
O to milejší překvapení to pro mě je - a samozřejmě i velká čest.
www.respekt.cz/tydenik/2025...
April 5, 2025 at 7:07 AM
@respektcz.bsky.social jsem si poprvé předplatil před 15 lety. Tehdy jsem byl ještě na střední škole a ani ve snu by mě nenapadlo, že se někdy objevím hned v úvodní anketě.
O to milejší překvapení to pro mě je - a samozřejmě i velká čest.
www.respekt.cz/tydenik/2025...
O to milejší překvapení to pro mě je - a samozřejmě i velká čest.
www.respekt.cz/tydenik/2025...
Don’t know about you but I feel liberated
April 2, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Don’t know about you but I feel liberated
Well at least the starting point for the trade war is good
April 1, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Well at least the starting point for the trade war is good
No shelter from the external storm for CEE economies
There won’t be many winners in the coming era of trade wars, economic fragmentation, and de-globalisation, but the CEE economies are most likely to be among the losers.
1/6
There won’t be many winners in the coming era of trade wars, economic fragmentation, and de-globalisation, but the CEE economies are most likely to be among the losers.
1/6
March 24, 2025 at 1:15 PM
No shelter from the external storm for CEE economies
There won’t be many winners in the coming era of trade wars, economic fragmentation, and de-globalisation, but the CEE economies are most likely to be among the losers.
1/6
There won’t be many winners in the coming era of trade wars, economic fragmentation, and de-globalisation, but the CEE economies are most likely to be among the losers.
1/6
Reposted by Thomas Dvorak
Reality check for Tesla in this Lex note from @johnsfoley.bsky.social. "Tesla isn’t valued like a car company...instead, the company’s massive gain since the election and subsequent fall reflects investors’ shifting views on the plausibility of his various moonshots". www.ft.com/content/f287...
March 11, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Reality check for Tesla in this Lex note from @johnsfoley.bsky.social. "Tesla isn’t valued like a car company...instead, the company’s massive gain since the election and subsequent fall reflects investors’ shifting views on the plausibility of his various moonshots". www.ft.com/content/f287...
Tariffs don’t have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements (and postponements) by the US have increased trade policy uncertainty, making it less likely that companies will invest.
1/7
Full report: www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/tar...
1/7
Full report: www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/tar...
Tariffs hurt, even if some are just threats
Tariffs don't have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements by the US, followed in some cases by swift postponements, are already increasing tra...
www.oxfordeconomics.com
March 11, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Tariffs don’t have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements (and postponements) by the US have increased trade policy uncertainty, making it less likely that companies will invest.
1/7
Full report: www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/tar...
1/7
Full report: www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/tar...
Reposted by Thomas Dvorak
Also, and my God I’m tired of saying this, the state does not “account for 45 per cent of GDP”. About half its spending is transfer payments (mainly pensions) which recipients can spend as they wish. Government spending on goods and services is more like 20% of GDP.
None of these have anything to do with the number of civil servants.
March 11, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Also, and my God I’m tired of saying this, the state does not “account for 45 per cent of GDP”. About half its spending is transfer payments (mainly pensions) which recipients can spend as they wish. Government spending on goods and services is more like 20% of GDP.
Watch out for eurozone private consumption (Q4 data out tomorrow). It'll be another 0.7% q/q growth it seems (same as Q3), with most national data already out. Germany stick out like a sore thumb, but the rest doesn't seem too bad.
Which is just as well - there won't be other growth engines in 2025.
Which is just as well - there won't be other growth engines in 2025.
March 6, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Watch out for eurozone private consumption (Q4 data out tomorrow). It'll be another 0.7% q/q growth it seems (same as Q3), with most national data already out. Germany stick out like a sore thumb, but the rest doesn't seem too bad.
Which is just as well - there won't be other growth engines in 2025.
Which is just as well - there won't be other growth engines in 2025.
The ECB is likely to cut the policy rate again later today. This seems sensible, given easing inflation and fledgeling growth momentum. But our research shows that rate cuts might not be as much of a boost to growth as some hope.
1/6
1/6
March 6, 2025 at 11:44 AM
The ECB is likely to cut the policy rate again later today. This seems sensible, given easing inflation and fledgeling growth momentum. But our research shows that rate cuts might not be as much of a boost to growth as some hope.
1/6
1/6
Reposted by Thomas Dvorak
As the UK raises its defence spending stuartmcgurk.bsky.social investigates the £6bn splashed on two aircraft carriers. It's a monumental piece of reporting www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...
Britain’s aircraft carriers: a national embarrassment?
The Royal Navy’s £6bn carriers have been ridiculed by Russia and others as symbols of British decline and delusion, obsolete in the age of drones and ...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
February 25, 2025 at 1:06 PM
As the UK raises its defence spending stuartmcgurk.bsky.social investigates the £6bn splashed on two aircraft carriers. It's a monumental piece of reporting www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...