Tom Dale
@tom-d.bsky.social
Writer, researcher: global politics, conflict, civilian protection: https://zeroline.substack.com/
Previously from Libya, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon. @tom_d_ on X.
Previously from Libya, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon. @tom_d_ on X.
Data on the causes of IDF fatalities since Israel broke the ceasefire show how reliant Hamas is on IEDs, and hence how little offensive capacity it has.
So why has the IDF's method been raid-withdraw-repeat, allowing Hamas to reestablish lethality each time? Analysis in the quoted post.
So why has the IDF's method been raid-withdraw-repeat, allowing Hamas to reestablish lethality each time? Analysis in the quoted post.
July 15, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Data on the causes of IDF fatalities since Israel broke the ceasefire show how reliant Hamas is on IEDs, and hence how little offensive capacity it has.
So why has the IDF's method been raid-withdraw-repeat, allowing Hamas to reestablish lethality each time? Analysis in the quoted post.
So why has the IDF's method been raid-withdraw-repeat, allowing Hamas to reestablish lethality each time? Analysis in the quoted post.
I wrote about why it may be misleading to think that the IDF's raid-withdraw-repeat cycle, expressed most recently in Beit Hanoun, is headed for another turn. zeroline.substack.com/p/can-israel...
Can Israel win in Gaza?
A Hamas-laid trap killed five Israeli soldiers in Beit Hanoun last week, 18 months after the IDF first declared victory in the town. What explains Israel's apparent failures so far?
zeroline.substack.com
July 15, 2025 at 9:54 AM
I wrote about why it may be misleading to think that the IDF's raid-withdraw-repeat cycle, expressed most recently in Beit Hanoun, is headed for another turn. zeroline.substack.com/p/can-israel...
Translated Ha'aretz chart on IDF fatalities in Gaza over past year. In a month, if no end to the war, we'll see whether June was an anomaly or if Hamas are able to maintain an effective resurgence in lethality. (nb: Even at this level, it seems far from sufficient to deter IDF.)
July 1, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Translated Ha'aretz chart on IDF fatalities in Gaza over past year. In a month, if no end to the war, we'll see whether June was an anomaly or if Hamas are able to maintain an effective resurgence in lethality. (nb: Even at this level, it seems far from sufficient to deter IDF.)
Reposted by Tom Dale
”A U.S.- and Israeli-backed group handing out aid in Gaza said on Friday all its distribution sites were closed until further notice, urging residents to stay away from these venues ’for their safety’” @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
US-backed Gaza aid group says all distribution sites closed after shootings
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said a reopening date would be announced later and urged residents to stay away from these venues "for their safety."
www.reuters.com
June 6, 2025 at 9:02 AM
”A U.S.- and Israeli-backed group handing out aid in Gaza said on Friday all its distribution sites were closed until further notice, urging residents to stay away from these venues ’for their safety’” @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Latest newsletter: : Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c.
zeroline.substack.com/p/fragments-...
zeroline.substack.com/p/fragments-...
Fragments #2: Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c.
The second Fragments – a series with few short, sharp articles about what’s been on my mind over the past week or so.
zeroline.substack.com
May 31, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Latest newsletter: : Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c.
zeroline.substack.com/p/fragments-...
zeroline.substack.com/p/fragments-...
Absolutely false, irresponsible framing. The ceasefire has not "expired", it has been killed by Israel, apparently with U.S. backing.
Hamas are factually correct to describe this as "a blatant upending of the agreement.”
Hamas are factually correct to describe this as "a blatant upending of the agreement.”
March 2, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Absolutely false, irresponsible framing. The ceasefire has not "expired", it has been killed by Israel, apparently with U.S. backing.
Hamas are factually correct to describe this as "a blatant upending of the agreement.”
Hamas are factually correct to describe this as "a blatant upending of the agreement.”
When the Houthis started their Red Sea attacks, alot of people tried to claim they were unrelated to Israel's war in Gaza. Well, as the ceasefire comes into effect, the Houthis have halted their attacks.
Abdelmalek al-Houthi recapitulates events since 2023 and gives a glowing review of his own policies, while indicating that they’ve now paused attacks in support of the ceasefire—but will keep a finger on the trigger in the event that Israel tries to cheat. www.saba.ye/ar/news34265...
قائد الثورة: اليمن في جهوزية مستمرة والأيدي على الزناد والعمليات مرتبطة بمدى تنفيذ العدو الصهيوني للاتفاق
أكد قائد الثورة السيد عبدالملك بدر الدين الحوثي، أن الشعب اليمني في جهوزية مستمرة والأيدي على الزناد والعمليات العسكرية اليمنية مرتبطة بمدى تنفيذ العدو الصهيوني للاتفاق.
www.saba.ye
January 20, 2025 at 6:26 PM
When the Houthis started their Red Sea attacks, alot of people tried to claim they were unrelated to Israel's war in Gaza. Well, as the ceasefire comes into effect, the Houthis have halted their attacks.
Reposted by Tom Dale
The remote, strategically located Yemeni island of Abdelkuri suddenly has an airstrip. There’s no explanation, but someone has written “I LOVE UAE” just next to it in gigantic letters, so maybe there is an explanation.
@jongambrell.bsky.social
@apnews.com
apnews.com/article/yeme...
@jongambrell.bsky.social
@apnews.com
apnews.com/article/yeme...
January 20, 2025 at 5:09 PM
The remote, strategically located Yemeni island of Abdelkuri suddenly has an airstrip. There’s no explanation, but someone has written “I LOVE UAE” just next to it in gigantic letters, so maybe there is an explanation.
@jongambrell.bsky.social
@apnews.com
apnews.com/article/yeme...
@jongambrell.bsky.social
@apnews.com
apnews.com/article/yeme...
Notes on the ceasefire: how it came about, what it tells us about the successes and failures of Joe Biden, Hamas, and the Palestinian solidarity movement in the West. And what comes next.
zeroline.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...
zeroline.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...
Notes on the ceasefire
Why did it happen? What does it mean? Will it hold? What happens next?
zeroline.substack.com
January 20, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Notes on the ceasefire: how it came about, what it tells us about the successes and failures of Joe Biden, Hamas, and the Palestinian solidarity movement in the West. And what comes next.
zeroline.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...
zeroline.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...
Me and Tom Rollins wrote about why Assad fell so quickly, and why efforts to cut Syrians out of their own story are wrong-headed.
Yes, the international dimension mattered, but it's far from the whole picture.
open.substack.com/pub/zeroline...
Why did Assad fall so fast?
The geopolitics of U.S. power, and the Syrian politics of revolution
open.substack.com
December 31, 2024 at 3:16 PM
Me and Tom Rollins wrote about why Assad fell so quickly, and why efforts to cut Syrians out of their own story are wrong-headed.
Yes, the international dimension mattered, but it's far from the whole picture.
open.substack.com/pub/zeroline...
Reposted by Tom Dale
An utterly damning and horrific image.
December 26, 2024 at 2:37 PM
An utterly damning and horrific image.
BlueSky really needs a save function. Ideally with a workable search, unlike Twitter/X.
December 27, 2024 at 2:08 PM
BlueSky really needs a save function. Ideally with a workable search, unlike Twitter/X.
We need to understand with absolute clarity what the IDF is, and what it does. It is not capable of exercising self-restraint, and Israel’s “political echelon” has no intention of restraining it. It must be restrained from outside.
www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024...
www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024...
December 23, 2024 at 8:30 PM
We need to understand with absolute clarity what the IDF is, and what it does. It is not capable of exercising self-restraint, and Israel’s “political echelon” has no intention of restraining it. It must be restrained from outside.
www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024...
www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024...
A damning, detailed report on the bias of the BBC News website - the most visited on the internet - in favour of Israel and against Palestine.
open.substack.com/pub/dropsite...
open.substack.com/pub/dropsite...
The BBC's Civil War Over Gaza
The BBC is facing an internal revolt over its reporting on Israel’s war on Gaza. Owen Jones investigates.
open.substack.com
December 21, 2024 at 4:57 PM
A damning, detailed report on the bias of the BBC News website - the most visited on the internet - in favour of Israel and against Palestine.
open.substack.com/pub/dropsite...
open.substack.com/pub/dropsite...
Israel is running a prison camp at Ofer, which lawyers say routinely administers torture to detainees, including electrocution and beating - in at least one case, to death www.972mag.com/ofer-camp-to...
December 19, 2024 at 8:48 PM
Israel is running a prison camp at Ofer, which lawyers say routinely administers torture to detainees, including electrocution and beating - in at least one case, to death www.972mag.com/ofer-camp-to...
One of those weeks where the images of dead children from Gaza are especially terrible. What more is there to say about it anymore? Eternal shame on anyone who excuses it. This did not have to happen.
December 18, 2024 at 11:39 PM
One of those weeks where the images of dead children from Gaza are especially terrible. What more is there to say about it anymore? Eternal shame on anyone who excuses it. This did not have to happen.
Bashar al-Asad claims to have, in essence, fled Syria by accident, after going to Russia's Hmeimim airbase for safety, and then evacuating with the troops there.
December 16, 2024 at 4:36 PM
Bashar al-Asad claims to have, in essence, fled Syria by accident, after going to Russia's Hmeimim airbase for safety, and then evacuating with the troops there.
This Syria sanctions lit review was published 9 Dec, but apparently finished before the HTS offensive. It suggests that sanctions were economically devastating but politically ineffective. Expect to see push back on the second part of that conclusion.
www.securityincontext.com/posts/econom...
www.securityincontext.com/posts/econom...
Economic Sanctions on Syria: A Critical Reappraisal
www.securityincontext.com
December 16, 2024 at 4:26 PM
This Syria sanctions lit review was published 9 Dec, but apparently finished before the HTS offensive. It suggests that sanctions were economically devastating but politically ineffective. Expect to see push back on the second part of that conclusion.
www.securityincontext.com/posts/econom...
www.securityincontext.com/posts/econom...
Thorough run-down from Perun on what we can infer, so far, about why Assad's army collapsed as quickly as it did: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOzX...
Syria & the Fall of Bashar al-Assad - Why Assad's military folded and what's next
YouTube video by Perun
www.youtube.com
December 15, 2024 at 5:07 PM
Thorough run-down from Perun on what we can infer, so far, about why Assad's army collapsed as quickly as it did: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOzX...
Reposted by Tom Dale
Wait. Are Syrians participating? Could this be a constructive meeting? Possibly. Does Syria need a ton of assistance? Absolutely. But hammering out an approach to transition should not happen unless Syrians are leading.
An important meeting for the future of Syria tomorrow. Foreign ministers from the Arab world and Turkey, the U.N. Special Envoy and representatives of the U.S. and Europe will meet in Aqaba, Jordan, to hammer out an approach to political transition in Syria.
Jordan to host Arab, international meetings on developments in Syria
Ministerial meetings to address Syria’s political, security landscape following ouster of Bashar al-Assad regime, says Foreign Ministry - Anadolu Ajansı
buff.ly
December 13, 2024 at 2:56 PM
Wait. Are Syrians participating? Could this be a constructive meeting? Possibly. Does Syria need a ton of assistance? Absolutely. But hammering out an approach to transition should not happen unless Syrians are leading.
An important meeting for the future of Syria tomorrow. Foreign ministers from the Arab world and Turkey, the U.N. Special Envoy and representatives of the U.S. and Europe will meet in Aqaba, Jordan, to hammer out an approach to political transition in Syria.
Jordan to host Arab, international meetings on developments in Syria
Ministerial meetings to address Syria’s political, security landscape following ouster of Bashar al-Assad regime, says Foreign Ministry - Anadolu Ajansı
buff.ly
December 13, 2024 at 2:47 PM
An important meeting for the future of Syria tomorrow. Foreign ministers from the Arab world and Turkey, the U.N. Special Envoy and representatives of the U.S. and Europe will meet in Aqaba, Jordan, to hammer out an approach to political transition in Syria.
Reposted by Tom Dale
After occupying new areas in southern Syria, the Israeli military ”stressed that the move was temporary, but also acknowledged that troops would likely remain inside Syrian territory for the foreseeable future.” (So, not temporary.)
@manniefabian.bsky.social
www.timesofisrael.com/idf-troops-w...
@manniefabian.bsky.social
www.timesofisrael.com/idf-troops-w...
IDF: Troops will stay in Syria buffer zone and strategic Mount Hermon as long as needed
Israel says move to capture territory is defensive, intended to be temporary; army says it will hold new positions until situation clears up after fall of Assad regime
www.timesofisrael.com
December 10, 2024 at 11:27 AM
After occupying new areas in southern Syria, the Israeli military ”stressed that the move was temporary, but also acknowledged that troops would likely remain inside Syrian territory for the foreseeable future.” (So, not temporary.)
@manniefabian.bsky.social
www.timesofisrael.com/idf-troops-w...
@manniefabian.bsky.social
www.timesofisrael.com/idf-troops-w...
Reposted by Tom Dale
The release of prisoners from the infamous Palestine Branch in Damascus.
"10 years!" shouts the man in a red shirt.
"What's happened?" asks the man in the blue shirt. "The regime has fallen" is the response.
"10 years!" shouts the man in a red shirt.
"What's happened?" asks the man in the blue shirt. "The regime has fallen" is the response.
December 8, 2024 at 10:03 AM
The release of prisoners from the infamous Palestine Branch in Damascus.
"10 years!" shouts the man in a red shirt.
"What's happened?" asks the man in the blue shirt. "The regime has fallen" is the response.
"10 years!" shouts the man in a red shirt.
"What's happened?" asks the man in the blue shirt. "The regime has fallen" is the response.
A video filmed by a friend in Damascus: celebratory gunfire over the early morning skyline as the news of Assad's departure spreads.
Much uncertainty ahead, but for now: a thousand thousand congratulations to Syria and its revolution.
Much uncertainty ahead, but for now: a thousand thousand congratulations to Syria and its revolution.
December 8, 2024 at 10:10 AM
A video filmed by a friend in Damascus: celebratory gunfire over the early morning skyline as the news of Assad's departure spreads.
Much uncertainty ahead, but for now: a thousand thousand congratulations to Syria and its revolution.
Much uncertainty ahead, but for now: a thousand thousand congratulations to Syria and its revolution.
It's a shame he never got see the inside of Sednaya, but here we go. What a moment.
Syrian president leaves Damascus on plane as army says his rule ends - reports
Thousands of Syrians, in cars and on foot, have congregated at a main square in Damascus, chanting for freedom, according to the Reuters news agency. Thousands also poured into the streets in Homs…
buff.ly
December 8, 2024 at 9:23 AM
It's a shame he never got see the inside of Sednaya, but here we go. What a moment.