Tolga Gurol
@tolga1gurol.bsky.social
Consultant, Former Senior Analyst at Fidelity International
Pinned
Tolga Gurol
@tolga1gurol.bsky.social
· Apr 25
One Tier and Rubble Down Below - Hussman Funds
One of the striking things about bull markets is that they often end in confident exuberance, while simultaneously deteriorating from the inside. Internal divergences, the lowest prospective market re...
www.hussmanfunds.com
“It was the climax of seven weeks of market convolutions, the last bumpy ride of illusion on its way to the rainbow’s end. Like a giant storm, it’s violence and intensity stunned even those who thought they saw some such disturbance looming on the horizon” - John Brooks Oct 1929
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
The new National Security Strategy is a propaganda document, designed to be widely read. It is also a performative suicide. Hard to think of another great power ever abdicating its influence so quickly and so publicly. It will be worth following the reactions around the world, not just in Europe.
Trump's national security strategy is out and some of the Europe sections are shocking. "...the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed
gives cause for great optimism."
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
gives cause for great optimism."
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 12:17 PM
The new National Security Strategy is a propaganda document, designed to be widely read. It is also a performative suicide. Hard to think of another great power ever abdicating its influence so quickly and so publicly. It will be worth following the reactions around the world, not just in Europe.
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
New research from Bill Hester 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/research/rs2...
www.hussmanfunds.com/research/rs2...
A Payroll Playbook to Gauge Recession Risk - Hussman Funds
With the federal government open after its longest shutdown on record, we will soon get a clear indication of how payrolls fared in September and October. The most recent data, through August, already...
www.hussmanfunds.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:38 PM
New research from Bill Hester 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/research/rs2...
www.hussmanfunds.com/research/rs2...
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Trump may yet impose a Ukraine deal – but it threatens to be a disaster for Kyiv
Trump may yet impose a Ukraine deal – but it threatens to be a disaster for Kyiv
Ukraine could be forced into an agreement but plan as it stands seems too bizarre for Zelenskyy to sell to his public
www.theguardian.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Trump may yet impose a Ukraine deal – but it threatens to be a disaster for Kyiv
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
B of A, on hyperscaler capex:
“.. In September and October alone, debt issuance from three firms was larger than the preceding three years combined for big tech issuance.”
$ORCL $META
“.. In September and October alone, debt issuance from three firms was larger than the preceding three years combined for big tech issuance.”
$ORCL $META
November 12, 2025 at 11:30 AM
B of A, on hyperscaler capex:
“.. In September and October alone, debt issuance from three firms was larger than the preceding three years combined for big tech issuance.”
$ORCL $META
“.. In September and October alone, debt issuance from three firms was larger than the preceding three years combined for big tech issuance.”
$ORCL $META
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
New comment is up! 🐳😉
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
An Unsustainable Equilibrium - Hussman Funds
The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history. This record aligns precisely with the happiest and most satisfying moment of a speculative bubble: the point where wildly misalig...
www.hussmanfunds.com
October 28, 2025 at 3:34 PM
New comment is up! 🐳😉
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Housing Market
39 of the Top 50 U.S. Metros have seen month-over-month housing price declines for the first time in history 🤯👀
39 of the Top 50 U.S. Metros have seen month-over-month housing price declines for the first time in history 🤯👀
September 9, 2025 at 6:40 PM
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Housing Market
39 of the Top 50 U.S. Metros have seen month-over-month housing price declines for the first time in history 🤯👀
39 of the Top 50 U.S. Metros have seen month-over-month housing price declines for the first time in history 🤯👀
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Retail Traders now account for more than 20% of total equity options volume, the most in history 🚨🚨
August 15, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Retail Traders now account for more than 20% of total equity options volume, the most in history 🚨🚨
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
New comment is up! 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
The Bubble Term - Hussman Funds
Bubbles are generated when investors drive valuations higher without simultaneously adjusting expectations for future returns lower. In other words, the defining feature of a bubble is inconsistency b...
www.hussmanfunds.com
August 15, 2025 at 1:15 PM
New comment is up! 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Keeping good company.
"...Jeremy Grantham recounts getting fired by multiple clients in the runup to the dotcom crash of 2000. The billionaire investor took a position against the market in 1998, missing out on two years of earnings growth before the bubble eventually burst."
youtu.be/-t8maJNGJWU
"...Jeremy Grantham recounts getting fired by multiple clients in the runup to the dotcom crash of 2000. The billionaire investor took a position against the market in 1998, missing out on two years of earnings growth before the bubble eventually burst."
youtu.be/-t8maJNGJWU
Jeremy Grantham says he predicted the Dotcom Bubble too early
YouTube video by David Rubenstein
youtu.be
July 22, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Keeping good company.
"...Jeremy Grantham recounts getting fired by multiple clients in the runup to the dotcom crash of 2000. The billionaire investor took a position against the market in 1998, missing out on two years of earnings growth before the bubble eventually burst."
youtu.be/-t8maJNGJWU
"...Jeremy Grantham recounts getting fired by multiple clients in the runup to the dotcom crash of 2000. The billionaire investor took a position against the market in 1998, missing out on two years of earnings growth before the bubble eventually burst."
youtu.be/-t8maJNGJWU
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
July comment is up! 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
The Impression of Invincibility - Hussman Funds
With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in U.S. history, record negative readings on our most reliable 'equity risk premium' gauge (estimated S&P 500 total retur...
www.hussmanfunds.com
July 22, 2025 at 5:26 PM
July comment is up! 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
New comment is up! Worth the wait I hope 🙂
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
The Bubble - Contains the Collapse - Contains the Resurgence - Hussman Funds
If you look deeply into a speculative bubble, you can see the market collapse in it. If you look deeply into a market collapse, you can see the bull market in it. Each is a continuation of the other.
www.hussmanfunds.com
June 13, 2025 at 5:36 PM
New comment is up! Worth the wait I hope 🙂
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
“.. strong, confident regimes are largely not in the habit of meeting protests with military force .. The Trump administration seems to have exactly one tool at its disposal — blunt force — and it’s clear that it has no plan for what happens when Americans do not fear being hit.”
@jamellebouie.net
@jamellebouie.net
Opinion | Trump Wants to Be a Strongman, but He’s Actually a Weak Man
He is still dangerous, though.
www.nytimes.com
June 11, 2025 at 4:52 PM
“.. strong, confident regimes are largely not in the habit of meeting protests with military force .. The Trump administration seems to have exactly one tool at its disposal — blunt force — and it’s clear that it has no plan for what happens when Americans do not fear being hit.”
@jamellebouie.net
@jamellebouie.net
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
“People tell me we are enormously resilient. I agree with that. I think this time is different. This time we have to get our act together and do it very quickly.” www.wsj.com/finance/jpmo...
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Predicts ‘Crack in the Bond Market,’ Citing U.S. Fiscal Mess
The bank executive cites U.S. fiscal mess and says America must “get our act together.”
www.wsj.com
June 2, 2025 at 3:18 PM
“People tell me we are enormously resilient. I agree with that. I think this time is different. This time we have to get our act together and do it very quickly.” www.wsj.com/finance/jpmo...
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
May 26, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
“This deal doesn’t reverse Brexit. It doesn’t roll back the referendum. It simply tries to make the current arrangement less disastrous for the people and businesses who’ve been living with the fallout for the last eight years”
eastangliabylines.co.uk/news/brexit/...
eastangliabylines.co.uk/news/brexit/...
Farage looks furious, Twitter melts down: a Brexit Deal FAQ
Everything you need to know about the new Brexit Deal, why Farage hates it, and what’s next
eastangliabylines.co.uk
May 26, 2025 at 6:22 AM
“This deal doesn’t reverse Brexit. It doesn’t roll back the referendum. It simply tries to make the current arrangement less disastrous for the people and businesses who’ve been living with the fallout for the last eight years”
eastangliabylines.co.uk/news/brexit/...
eastangliabylines.co.uk/news/brexit/...
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
“Child poverty is the biggest cause of social division in Britain today, a scar on our national conscience, and a stain on the soul of the country”
Gordon Brown
www.newstatesman.com/politics/soc...
Gordon Brown
www.newstatesman.com/politics/soc...
Child poverty is a scar on our national conscience
A Labour government has taken millions of children out of poverty before. It can do so again.
www.newstatesman.com
May 23, 2025 at 11:22 AM
“Child poverty is the biggest cause of social division in Britain today, a scar on our national conscience, and a stain on the soul of the country”
Gordon Brown
www.newstatesman.com/politics/soc...
Gordon Brown
www.newstatesman.com/politics/soc...
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Bruce Springsteen releases digital downloads of his live anti-Trump speeches
www.foxnews.com/media/bruce-... #FoxNews
www.foxnews.com/media/bruce-... #FoxNews
Bruce Springsteen releases digital downloads of his live anti-Trump speeches
Rock singer Bruce Springsteen released digital downloads of the live rants that he made against President Donald Trump during his Manchester concert last week.
www.foxnews.com
May 22, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Bruce Springsteen releases digital downloads of his live anti-Trump speeches
www.foxnews.com/media/bruce-... #FoxNews
www.foxnews.com/media/bruce-... #FoxNews
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Guide to the types of goods you'll most likely be paying higher prices for as retailers with 2-4% profit margins try to pass through tariffs of 10-30% on the one-third or more of their inventory that's sourced from foreign countries.
More elastic, high-end products may be safe.
More elastic, high-end products may be safe.
May 19, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Guide to the types of goods you'll most likely be paying higher prices for as retailers with 2-4% profit margins try to pass through tariffs of 10-30% on the one-third or more of their inventory that's sourced from foreign countries.
More elastic, high-end products may be safe.
More elastic, high-end products may be safe.
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Here’s a preview of the coming clash with SCOTUS which has already confirmed noncitizens are entitled to due process. “Sudden deportation” violates the Constitution.
May 10, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Here’s a preview of the coming clash with SCOTUS which has already confirmed noncitizens are entitled to due process. “Sudden deportation” violates the Constitution.
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Reposted by Tolga Gurol
Hak, Hukuk, Adalet ve VİCDAN
May 10, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Hak, Hukuk, Adalet ve VİCDAN