John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
@hussmanjp.bsky.social
Philanthropist. Finance, economics, public policy, neuroscience, genomics, and a 6-string. Realistic optimist often mistaken for prophet of doom.
Be kind. This account retains zero trolls.
www.hussman.com
Be kind. This account retains zero trolls.
www.hussman.com
Pinned
This is, because that is
This is not, because that is not.
They are like this, because we are like that
They are not like this, because we are not like that.
- Buddha
We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.
This is not, because that is not.
They are like this, because we are like that
They are not like this, because we are not like that.
- Buddha
We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.
Reposted by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
“the corporate profitability that investors presently attribute to productivity and innovation is actually the accounting result of record government and household deficits…maintaining this level of profitability…actually relies on massive and sustained deficits in other sectors”
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An Unsustainable Equilibrium - Hussman Funds
The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history. This record aligns precisely with the happiest and most satisfying moment of a speculative bubble: the point where wildly misalig...
www.hussmanfunds.com
November 13, 2025 at 4:51 PM
“the corporate profitability that investors presently attribute to productivity and innovation is actually the accounting result of record government and household deficits…maintaining this level of profitability…actually relies on massive and sustained deficits in other sectors”
Feels extra-special when you get a motherlode of syndromes with all the sinister names.
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
November 11, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Feels extra-special when you get a motherlode of syndromes with all the sinister names.
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
you are correct
dozens and dozens of warning flags at weekly and daily resolutions. Not a forecast - we don't need to rely on any particular scenario, but market conditions definitely join extreme valuations with internal dispersion and reversal of leadership that typically means "phase transition"
dozens and dozens of warning flags at weekly and daily resolutions. Not a forecast - we don't need to rely on any particular scenario, but market conditions definitely join extreme valuations with internal dispersion and reversal of leadership that typically means "phase transition"
November 1, 2025 at 6:08 PM
you are correct
dozens and dozens of warning flags at weekly and daily resolutions. Not a forecast - we don't need to rely on any particular scenario, but market conditions definitely join extreme valuations with internal dispersion and reversal of leadership that typically means "phase transition"
dozens and dozens of warning flags at weekly and daily resolutions. Not a forecast - we don't need to rely on any particular scenario, but market conditions definitely join extreme valuations with internal dispersion and reversal of leadership that typically means "phase transition"
Excerpt from Steuart's speech yesterday.
You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%
You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%
October 31, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Excerpt from Steuart's speech yesterday.
You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%
You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%
Among the fresh "motherlode" of warning syndromes this week
October 30, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Among the fresh "motherlode" of warning syndromes this week
The "market" is just total shares outstanding. If you put cash "into" the market, you hand your cash to a seller. In return, they hand their shares of stock to you. Someone has to hold the pieces of paper and digital entries called "cash" until the Fed retires them.
There's no bucket in the middle
There's no bucket in the middle
October 30, 2025 at 1:38 PM
The "market" is just total shares outstanding. If you put cash "into" the market, you hand your cash to a seller. In return, they hand their shares of stock to you. Someone has to hold the pieces of paper and digital entries called "cash" until the Fed retires them.
There's no bucket in the middle
There's no bucket in the middle
3.92
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
October 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
3.92
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
Reposted by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
It’s a banger. 👇🏼
New comment is up! 🐳😉
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An Unsustainable Equilibrium - Hussman Funds
The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history. This record aligns precisely with the happiest and most satisfying moment of a speculative bubble: the point where wildly misalig...
www.hussmanfunds.com
October 28, 2025 at 8:41 PM
It’s a banger. 👇🏼
Reposted by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
"much of the wealth isn’t a reflection of labor or even invention—it’s a gain based on the negative externalities and private monetization of an unrecognized public good—the network effect—with no associated compensation to the public." @hussmanjp.bsky.social www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
An Unsustainable Equilibrium - Hussman Funds
The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history. This record aligns precisely with the happiest and most satisfying moment of a speculative bubble: the point where wildly misalig...
www.hussmanfunds.com
October 28, 2025 at 11:47 PM
"much of the wealth isn’t a reflection of labor or even invention—it’s a gain based on the negative externalities and private monetization of an unrecognized public good—the network effect—with no associated compensation to the public." @hussmanjp.bsky.social www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...
New comment is up! 🐳😉
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An Unsustainable Equilibrium - Hussman Funds
The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history. This record aligns precisely with the happiest and most satisfying moment of a speculative bubble: the point where wildly misalig...
www.hussmanfunds.com
October 28, 2025 at 3:34 PM
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Some words from Thay, in case you could use them today. As the Buddha said, better than a thousand useless words is a single word that brings peace. 🤗🌸
October 26, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Some words from Thay, in case you could use them today. As the Buddha said, better than a thousand useless words is a single word that brings peace. 🤗🌸
Reposted by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
“.. A broad range of specialists .. have called Mr. Trump’s orders to the military patently illegal .. murders — regardless of whether the 43 people blown apart, burned alive or drowned in 10 strikes so far were indeed running drugs.”
@charliesavage.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
@charliesavage.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
October 25, 2025 at 8:02 PM
“.. A broad range of specialists .. have called Mr. Trump’s orders to the military patently illegal .. murders — regardless of whether the 43 people blown apart, burned alive or drowned in 10 strikes so far were indeed running drugs.”
@charliesavage.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
@charliesavage.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
Stop repeating - or believing - that the President, regardless of party, has "absolute" immunity for all actions. That's not what the Supreme Court ruled. Not all acts are an exercise of "core constitutional powers" - certainly not actions that violate the law or the Constitution itself.
October 20, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Stop repeating - or believing - that the President, regardless of party, has "absolute" immunity for all actions. That's not what the Supreme Court ruled. Not all acts are an exercise of "core constitutional powers" - certainly not actions that violate the law or the Constitution itself.
Reposted by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
heartbroken to learn the pope sympathizes with the poor. how can i continue to believe in god
October 17, 2025 at 5:43 PM
heartbroken to learn the pope sympathizes with the poor. how can i continue to believe in god
Yep - "Another factor contributing to speculative euphoria and programmed collapse is the specious association of money and intelligence. Such reverence indicates the shortness of memory, the ignorance of history, and the consequent capacity for self- and popular delusion."
- JK Galbraith
- JK Galbraith
Ironically, it's baked into kids from birth that success scales w/wealth & that anyone can beat the odds by working harder/smarter. So if the middle class is shrinking, the logical extension is that more & more of us are becoming lazy. Seems like an absurd thing to swallow given the rat race we live
October 16, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Yep - "Another factor contributing to speculative euphoria and programmed collapse is the specious association of money and intelligence. Such reverence indicates the shortness of memory, the ignorance of history, and the consequent capacity for self- and popular delusion."
- JK Galbraith
- JK Galbraith
It's fascinating. The deficit of one sector emerges as the surplus of another. Basically, 30% of wealth is held by the top 1%, 67% by the top 10%, and just 2.5% by the bottom 50% of households. One sector rises to the extent the others sink.
Not politics. Just accounting.
Not politics. Just accounting.
October 16, 2025 at 3:17 PM
It's fascinating. The deficit of one sector emerges as the surplus of another. Basically, 30% of wealth is held by the top 1%, 67% by the top 10%, and just 2.5% by the bottom 50% of households. One sector rises to the extent the others sink.
Not politics. Just accounting.
Not politics. Just accounting.
You know it's a bubble when this is their math.
Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows.
Price/Revenue?
Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate.
(Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E
Ok, if margins are permanent.
(P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)
Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows.
Price/Revenue?
Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate.
(Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E
Ok, if margins are permanent.
(P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)
October 12, 2025 at 2:16 PM
You know it's a bubble when this is their math.
Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows.
Price/Revenue?
Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate.
(Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E
Ok, if margins are permanent.
(P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)
Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows.
Price/Revenue?
Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate.
(Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E
Ok, if margins are permanent.
(P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)
Reposted by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
‘The US stock market is basically as expensive as it has ever been.’ www.man.com/insights/roa...
October 9, 2025 at 5:28 PM
‘The US stock market is basically as expensive as it has ever been.’ www.man.com/insights/roa...
"It’s not just the unusually sharp rise in dispersion that is worrisome right now; it’s also the fact that that dispersion is being driven by the stocks most sensitive to a turn in the broader credit cycle."
- Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report
- Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report
October 9, 2025 at 8:42 PM
"It’s not just the unusually sharp rise in dispersion that is worrisome right now; it’s also the fact that that dispersion is being driven by the stocks most sensitive to a turn in the broader credit cycle."
- Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report
- Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report
Soundtrack for Sep comment: She Did It - Eric Carmen, 1977
Session roster is crazy!
Backup: Beach Boys Bruce Johnston & Brian Wilson
Burton Cummings - Guess Who
Nigel Olsson - Elton's drummer
Drums: Jeff Porcaro - Toto
Guitar: Andrew Gold (Lonely Boy)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cjxp...
Session roster is crazy!
Backup: Beach Boys Bruce Johnston & Brian Wilson
Burton Cummings - Guess Who
Nigel Olsson - Elton's drummer
Drums: Jeff Porcaro - Toto
Guitar: Andrew Gold (Lonely Boy)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cjxp...
She Did It (Remastered)
YouTube video by Eric Carmen - Topic
www.youtube.com
October 3, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Soundtrack for Sep comment: She Did It - Eric Carmen, 1977
Session roster is crazy!
Backup: Beach Boys Bruce Johnston & Brian Wilson
Burton Cummings - Guess Who
Nigel Olsson - Elton's drummer
Drums: Jeff Porcaro - Toto
Guitar: Andrew Gold (Lonely Boy)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cjxp...
Session roster is crazy!
Backup: Beach Boys Bruce Johnston & Brian Wilson
Burton Cummings - Guess Who
Nigel Olsson - Elton's drummer
Drums: Jeff Porcaro - Toto
Guitar: Andrew Gold (Lonely Boy)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cjxp...
The return from today to tomorrow is proportional to the crash hazard rate. In essence, investors must be compensated to hold an asset that might crash - implying an underlying risk, not yet revealed in the price dynamics, which justifies this apparent free ride and free lunch.
– Didier Sornette
– Didier Sornette
October 3, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The return from today to tomorrow is proportional to the crash hazard rate. In essence, investors must be compensated to hold an asset that might crash - implying an underlying risk, not yet revealed in the price dynamics, which justifies this apparent free ride and free lunch.
– Didier Sornette
– Didier Sornette
Reposted by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Excellent summation of AI usage:
"... the less you’re willing to think, the more vulnerable you are to having AI think for you, and the more you’re willing to think, the greater the opportunity you have for AI to leverage your insight....Our most urgent focus should be on that choice."
"... the less you’re willing to think, the more vulnerable you are to having AI think for you, and the more you’re willing to think, the greater the opportunity you have for AI to leverage your insight....Our most urgent focus should be on that choice."
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Singularity and the Buzzard - Hussman Funds
Division by zero is known as a 'singularity.' It’s the point where equations break down, values become 'indeterminate,' things stop working normally, and variables shoot toward infinity and suddenly c...
www.hussmanfunds.com
September 26, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Excellent summation of AI usage:
"... the less you’re willing to think, the more vulnerable you are to having AI think for you, and the more you’re willing to think, the greater the opportunity you have for AI to leverage your insight....Our most urgent focus should be on that choice."
"... the less you’re willing to think, the more vulnerable you are to having AI think for you, and the more you’re willing to think, the greater the opportunity you have for AI to leverage your insight....Our most urgent focus should be on that choice."
gotta love a regularity, particularly when you don't rely on it
September 25, 2025 at 1:48 PM
gotta love a regularity, particularly when you don't rely on it
Reposted by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
’The singularity is not the date of a “crash.” Rather, it’s the point where the pitch of the advance reaches its extreme.‘ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social
September 24, 2025 at 7:20 PM
’The singularity is not the date of a “crash.” Rather, it’s the point where the pitch of the advance reaches its extreme.‘ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social