John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
@hussmanjp.bsky.social
Philanthropist. Finance, economics, public policy, neuroscience, genomics, and a 6-string. Realistic optimist often mistaken for prophet of doom.
Be kind. This account retains zero trolls.
www.hussman.com
Be kind. This account retains zero trolls.
www.hussman.com
feels almost mean to drop my usual log scale, but it's out of love
November 11, 2025 at 10:25 PM
feels almost mean to drop my usual log scale, but it's out of love
Feels extra-special when you get a motherlode of syndromes with all the sinister names.
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
November 11, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Feels extra-special when you get a motherlode of syndromes with all the sinister names.
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
... preloading - "what's a phase transition?"
November 1, 2025 at 6:10 PM
... preloading - "what's a phase transition?"
you are correct
dozens and dozens of warning flags at weekly and daily resolutions. Not a forecast - we don't need to rely on any particular scenario, but market conditions definitely join extreme valuations with internal dispersion and reversal of leadership that typically means "phase transition"
dozens and dozens of warning flags at weekly and daily resolutions. Not a forecast - we don't need to rely on any particular scenario, but market conditions definitely join extreme valuations with internal dispersion and reversal of leadership that typically means "phase transition"
November 1, 2025 at 6:08 PM
you are correct
dozens and dozens of warning flags at weekly and daily resolutions. Not a forecast - we don't need to rely on any particular scenario, but market conditions definitely join extreme valuations with internal dispersion and reversal of leadership that typically means "phase transition"
dozens and dozens of warning flags at weekly and daily resolutions. Not a forecast - we don't need to rely on any particular scenario, but market conditions definitely join extreme valuations with internal dispersion and reversal of leadership that typically means "phase transition"
On the subject of "alternative" valuation measures, note that this "valuation" measure matched current levels at the *beginning of the 2000-2002, and 2007-2009 market collapses, surging to higher, presumably "overvalued" levels at 2002, 2009, 2020 recession lows, and after the 2023 market plunge.
November 1, 2025 at 5:53 PM
On the subject of "alternative" valuation measures, note that this "valuation" measure matched current levels at the *beginning of the 2000-2002, and 2007-2009 market collapses, surging to higher, presumably "overvalued" levels at 2002, 2009, 2020 recession lows, and after the 2023 market plunge.
Excerpt from Steuart's speech yesterday.
You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%
You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%
October 31, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Excerpt from Steuart's speech yesterday.
You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%
You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%
Among the fresh "motherlode" of warning syndromes this week
October 30, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Among the fresh "motherlode" of warning syndromes this week
3.92
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
October 29, 2025 at 3:22 PM
3.92
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return
Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak
Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬
Some words from Thay, in case you could use them today. As the Buddha said, better than a thousand useless words is a single word that brings peace. 🤗🌸
October 26, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Some words from Thay, in case you could use them today. As the Buddha said, better than a thousand useless words is a single word that brings peace. 🤗🌸
Stop repeating - or believing - that the President, regardless of party, has "absolute" immunity for all actions. That's not what the Supreme Court ruled. Not all acts are an exercise of "core constitutional powers" - certainly not actions that violate the law or the Constitution itself.
October 20, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Stop repeating - or believing - that the President, regardless of party, has "absolute" immunity for all actions. That's not what the Supreme Court ruled. Not all acts are an exercise of "core constitutional powers" - certainly not actions that violate the law or the Constitution itself.
... which might be ok if the whole pie was growing rapidly. Unfortunately, average annual real U.S. GDP growth over the past 25 years has been the lowest in history.
AI investment is a short boost, but as in every "new era", excess profits eventually become consumer surplus.
AI investment is a short boost, but as in every "new era", excess profits eventually become consumer surplus.
October 16, 2025 at 3:23 PM
... which might be ok if the whole pie was growing rapidly. Unfortunately, average annual real U.S. GDP growth over the past 25 years has been the lowest in history.
AI investment is a short boost, but as in every "new era", excess profits eventually become consumer surplus.
AI investment is a short boost, but as in every "new era", excess profits eventually become consumer surplus.
It's fascinating. The deficit of one sector emerges as the surplus of another. Basically, 30% of wealth is held by the top 1%, 67% by the top 10%, and just 2.5% by the bottom 50% of households. One sector rises to the extent the others sink.
Not politics. Just accounting.
Not politics. Just accounting.
October 16, 2025 at 3:17 PM
It's fascinating. The deficit of one sector emerges as the surplus of another. Basically, 30% of wealth is held by the top 1%, 67% by the top 10%, and just 2.5% by the bottom 50% of households. One sector rises to the extent the others sink.
Not politics. Just accounting.
Not politics. Just accounting.
You'll also notice that the valuation metric in the previous post peaks at market *bottoms*
Because margins do fluctuate.
That's why, in market cycles across history, valuations anchored to revenues and gross value-added are better correlated with long-term returns than even P/E ratios.
Because margins do fluctuate.
That's why, in market cycles across history, valuations anchored to revenues and gross value-added are better correlated with long-term returns than even P/E ratios.
October 12, 2025 at 2:26 PM
You'll also notice that the valuation metric in the previous post peaks at market *bottoms*
Because margins do fluctuate.
That's why, in market cycles across history, valuations anchored to revenues and gross value-added are better correlated with long-term returns than even P/E ratios.
Because margins do fluctuate.
That's why, in market cycles across history, valuations anchored to revenues and gross value-added are better correlated with long-term returns than even P/E ratios.
You know it's a bubble when this is their math.
Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows.
Price/Revenue?
Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate.
(Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E
Ok, if margins are permanent.
(P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)
Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows.
Price/Revenue?
Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate.
(Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E
Ok, if margins are permanent.
(P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)
October 12, 2025 at 2:16 PM
You know it's a bubble when this is their math.
Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows.
Price/Revenue?
Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate.
(Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E
Ok, if margins are permanent.
(P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)
Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows.
Price/Revenue?
Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate.
(Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E
Ok, if margins are permanent.
(P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)
Even in a bubble, nothing remains in our discipline that relies on a market collapse - I do expect that over the full-cycle, but it's enough merely for the market to fluctuate.
Short-term diagonals at the steepest valuations in history are less fun, but often resolve abruptly.
Short-term diagonals at the steepest valuations in history are less fun, but often resolve abruptly.
October 9, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Even in a bubble, nothing remains in our discipline that relies on a market collapse - I do expect that over the full-cycle, but it's enough merely for the market to fluctuate.
Short-term diagonals at the steepest valuations in history are less fun, but often resolve abruptly.
Short-term diagonals at the steepest valuations in history are less fun, but often resolve abruptly.
Meanwhile ...
Not our methodology, and nothing in our discipline relies on a collapse, but it's interesting that 30-day dispersion lines up with this ramp toward singularity.
Not our methodology, and nothing in our discipline relies on a collapse, but it's interesting that 30-day dispersion lines up with this ramp toward singularity.
October 9, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Meanwhile ...
Not our methodology, and nothing in our discipline relies on a collapse, but it's interesting that 30-day dispersion lines up with this ramp toward singularity.
Not our methodology, and nothing in our discipline relies on a collapse, but it's interesting that 30-day dispersion lines up with this ramp toward singularity.
"It’s not just the unusually sharp rise in dispersion that is worrisome right now; it’s also the fact that that dispersion is being driven by the stocks most sensitive to a turn in the broader credit cycle."
- Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report
- Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report
October 9, 2025 at 8:42 PM
"It’s not just the unusually sharp rise in dispersion that is worrisome right now; it’s also the fact that that dispersion is being driven by the stocks most sensitive to a turn in the broader credit cycle."
- Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report
- Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report
That said, on the subject of seeing valuations at the most extreme point in history, yet seeing it not matter - we don't need to rely on a collapse to allow for the possibility. Here's what I wrote in March 2000 just before the NDX dropped by, well, 83%.
October 3, 2025 at 5:20 PM
That said, on the subject of seeing valuations at the most extreme point in history, yet seeing it not matter - we don't need to rely on a collapse to allow for the possibility. Here's what I wrote in March 2000 just before the NDX dropped by, well, 83%.
The return from today to tomorrow is proportional to the crash hazard rate. In essence, investors must be compensated to hold an asset that might crash - implying an underlying risk, not yet revealed in the price dynamics, which justifies this apparent free ride and free lunch.
– Didier Sornette
– Didier Sornette
October 3, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The return from today to tomorrow is proportional to the crash hazard rate. In essence, investors must be compensated to hold an asset that might crash - implying an underlying risk, not yet revealed in the price dynamics, which justifies this apparent free ride and free lunch.
– Didier Sornette
– Didier Sornette
gotta love a regularity, particularly when you don't rely on it
September 25, 2025 at 1:48 PM
gotta love a regularity, particularly when you don't rely on it
… meanwhile on the artist formerly known as Twitter
September 15, 2025 at 10:59 AM
… meanwhile on the artist formerly known as Twitter
This is, because that is
This is not, because that is not.
They are like this, because we are like that
They are not like this, because we are not like that.
- Buddha
We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.
This is not, because that is not.
They are like this, because we are like that
They are not like this, because we are not like that.
- Buddha
We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.
September 12, 2025 at 12:06 AM
This is, because that is
This is not, because that is not.
They are like this, because we are like that
They are not like this, because we are not like that.
- Buddha
We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.
This is not, because that is not.
They are like this, because we are like that
They are not like this, because we are not like that.
- Buddha
We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.
As @peteratwater.bsky.social would say, "there's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere."
Fun fact: the S&P 500 also averaged total returns of about 20% annually over the 18-year period to the 2000 bubble peak (see my August comment for more).
Love that the author's last name is Karma.
Fun fact: the S&P 500 also averaged total returns of about 20% annually over the 18-year period to the 2000 bubble peak (see my August comment for more).
Love that the author's last name is Karma.
August 19, 2025 at 6:18 PM
As @peteratwater.bsky.social would say, "there's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere."
Fun fact: the S&P 500 also averaged total returns of about 20% annually over the 18-year period to the 2000 bubble peak (see my August comment for more).
Love that the author's last name is Karma.
Fun fact: the S&P 500 also averaged total returns of about 20% annually over the 18-year period to the 2000 bubble peak (see my August comment for more).
Love that the author's last name is Karma.