Tom Lubbock
@tmlbk.bsky.social
Opinion Research, Insight and Strategy | Co-founder
@JLPartnersPolls | #rstats | #tidymodels| #dataviz | via @UniofOxford
jlpartners.co.uk
@JLPartnersPolls | #rstats | #tidymodels| #dataviz | via @UniofOxford
jlpartners.co.uk
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
Why study public policy at Oxford? 🌍
With MPP applications opening 8 September, here are 5 reasons the Oxford MPP stands out – from global networks to real-world learning.👇
www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/blog/five-re...
With MPP applications opening 8 September, here are 5 reasons the Oxford MPP stands out – from global networks to real-world learning.👇
www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/blog/five-re...
September 4, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Why study public policy at Oxford? 🌍
With MPP applications opening 8 September, here are 5 reasons the Oxford MPP stands out – from global networks to real-world learning.👇
www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/blog/five-re...
With MPP applications opening 8 September, here are 5 reasons the Oxford MPP stands out – from global networks to real-world learning.👇
www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/blog/five-re...
Reform's 10 point lead with a share in the low 30s matches almost exactly Labour's election result last year. They got a 174 seat majority
NEW: JL Partners Voting Intention in The Sun
2,118 British adults, 19 August - 1 September 2025
Changes w/ 17-19 July 2025
🟣 RFM: 32% (+3)
🔴 LAB: 22% (-1)
🔵 CON: 18% (+1)
🟡 LDEM: 12% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 7% (-2)
2,118 British adults, 19 August - 1 September 2025
Changes w/ 17-19 July 2025
🟣 RFM: 32% (+3)
🔴 LAB: 22% (-1)
🔵 CON: 18% (+1)
🟡 LDEM: 12% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 7% (-2)
September 4, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Reform's 10 point lead with a share in the low 30s matches almost exactly Labour's election result last year. They got a 174 seat majority
NEW: JL Partners Voting Intention in The Sun
2,118 British adults, 19 August - 1 September 2025
Changes w/ 17-19 July 2025
🟣 RFM: 32% (+3)
🔴 LAB: 22% (-1)
🔵 CON: 18% (+1)
🟡 LDEM: 12% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 7% (-2)
2,118 British adults, 19 August - 1 September 2025
Changes w/ 17-19 July 2025
🟣 RFM: 32% (+3)
🔴 LAB: 22% (-1)
🔵 CON: 18% (+1)
🟡 LDEM: 12% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 7% (-2)
September 4, 2025 at 6:52 AM
NEW: JL Partners Voting Intention in The Sun
2,118 British adults, 19 August - 1 September 2025
Changes w/ 17-19 July 2025
🟣 RFM: 32% (+3)
🔴 LAB: 22% (-1)
🔵 CON: 18% (+1)
🟡 LDEM: 12% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 7% (-2)
2,118 British adults, 19 August - 1 September 2025
Changes w/ 17-19 July 2025
🟣 RFM: 32% (+3)
🔴 LAB: 22% (-1)
🔵 CON: 18% (+1)
🟡 LDEM: 12% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 7% (-2)
Taiwan just ahead of the UK in value of trade with the US
August 2, 2025 at 6:19 AM
Taiwan just ahead of the UK in value of trade with the US
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
The Chinese government will give families Rmb3,600 ($503) a year for each child under the age of three, state news agency Xinhua said. https://on.ft.com/4f9jihL
July 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The Chinese government will give families Rmb3,600 ($503) a year for each child under the age of three, state news agency Xinhua said. https://on.ft.com/4f9jihL
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
Great new report out today! The net zero economy grew by 10% in 2024
Britain’s net zero economy is booming, CBI says
Green sector growing at triple the rate of the UK economy, providing high-wage jobs and increasing energy security.
@dpcarrington.bsky.social
Green sector growing at triple the rate of the UK economy, providing high-wage jobs and increasing energy security.
@dpcarrington.bsky.social
February 24, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Great new report out today! The net zero economy grew by 10% in 2024
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
3rd interstellar object discovered? Maybe. There's a lot of buzz right now in the Astro community. More observations should come in tonight to confirm if A11pI3Z is from beyond the solar system.
July 2, 2025 at 4:38 AM
3rd interstellar object discovered? Maybe. There's a lot of buzz right now in the Astro community. More observations should come in tonight to confirm if A11pI3Z is from beyond the solar system.
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
Video from @zeitonline showing that Swiss village after the glacier collapse:
www.zeit.de/video/2025-0...
www.zeit.de/video/2025-0...
Bergsturz in der Schweiz: So sieht es im Lötschental nach dem Gletscherabbruch aus
Ein ganzes Dorf wurde nach dem Bergsturz in Blatten unter meterhohem Schutt begraben. Dahinter staut sich gefährlich das Flusswasser der Lonza. Ein Überblick im Video
www.zeit.de
May 30, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Video from @zeitonline showing that Swiss village after the glacier collapse:
www.zeit.de/video/2025-0...
www.zeit.de/video/2025-0...
Big upside for the government if they can land an EU deal – our polling in @thetimes shows 54% of the public think there will be a positive economic impact. That's high in the context of this kind of event:
thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
May 18, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Big upside for the government if they can land an EU deal – our polling in @thetimes shows 54% of the public think there will be a positive economic impact. That's high in the context of this kind of event:
thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
NEW from me: China's CO2 emissions fell ~1.6% in the first quarter and have now been flat or down for more than a year. This is the first time on record that emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand.
NEW – Analysis: Clean energy just put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for first time | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/6eAcjRU
Read here: buff.ly/6eAcjRU
May 15, 2025 at 5:45 AM
NEW from me: China's CO2 emissions fell ~1.6% in the first quarter and have now been flat or down for more than a year. This is the first time on record that emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand.
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
FT Exclusive: The deal, set to be signed this week, is due to include quotas that spare some UK exports from the full brunt of the additional 25% tariffs that US President Donald Trump levied on steel and car imports. www.ft.com/content/ca38...
May 6, 2025 at 6:31 PM
FT Exclusive: The deal, set to be signed this week, is due to include quotas that spare some UK exports from the full brunt of the additional 25% tariffs that US President Donald Trump levied on steel and car imports. www.ft.com/content/ca38...
My comments in the @theipaper on the Spring Statement:
Politicians need to realise that the cost of living is still the number one concern for people listening to things like the Spring Statement.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Politicians need to realise that the cost of living is still the number one concern for people listening to things like the Spring Statement.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
'Bloody disgusting and unfair': Voters give verdict on Reeves slashing benefits
Voters' panel voices fears over living costs, and anger that super-rich were spared in Spring Statement
inews.co.uk
March 27, 2025 at 2:52 PM
My comments in the @theipaper on the Spring Statement:
Politicians need to realise that the cost of living is still the number one concern for people listening to things like the Spring Statement.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Politicians need to realise that the cost of living is still the number one concern for people listening to things like the Spring Statement.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
Weapons maker Rheinmetall is now worth more than VW.
March 25, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Weapons maker Rheinmetall is now worth more than VW.
Going into the spring statement the public rate Reeves' handling of the UK economy 15 points *worse* than Hunt's on the day he left office
Starmer/Reeves: -58
Sunak/Hunt: -43
Labour have to turn these perceptions around
Starmer/Reeves: -58
Sunak/Hunt: -43
Labour have to turn these perceptions around
March 5, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Going into the spring statement the public rate Reeves' handling of the UK economy 15 points *worse* than Hunt's on the day he left office
Starmer/Reeves: -58
Sunak/Hunt: -43
Labour have to turn these perceptions around
Starmer/Reeves: -58
Sunak/Hunt: -43
Labour have to turn these perceptions around
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP.
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
March 4, 2025 at 6:26 PM
MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP.
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
ICYMI - yesterday the government announced the intention that 6 new areas will elect mayors in May 2026 with powers over transport, housing and more:
Cumbria
Cheshire & Warrington
Norfolk & Suffolk
Greater Essex
Sussex & Brighton
Hampshire & Solent
🥳
www.gov.uk/government/n...
Cumbria
Cheshire & Warrington
Norfolk & Suffolk
Greater Essex
Sussex & Brighton
Hampshire & Solent
🥳
www.gov.uk/government/n...
Devolution revolution: six areas to elect Mayors for first time
Deputy Prime Minister brings six areas onto the Devolution Priority Programme with Mayors to be elected by May 2026 plus four new devolved institutions created.
www.gov.uk
February 6, 2025 at 9:16 AM
ICYMI - yesterday the government announced the intention that 6 new areas will elect mayors in May 2026 with powers over transport, housing and more:
Cumbria
Cheshire & Warrington
Norfolk & Suffolk
Greater Essex
Sussex & Brighton
Hampshire & Solent
🥳
www.gov.uk/government/n...
Cumbria
Cheshire & Warrington
Norfolk & Suffolk
Greater Essex
Sussex & Brighton
Hampshire & Solent
🥳
www.gov.uk/government/n...
Latest polling from Lord Ashcroft on net zero and climate change: h/t @rentouljohn.bsky.social
January 30, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Latest polling from Lord Ashcroft on net zero and climate change: h/t @rentouljohn.bsky.social
Reposted by Tom Lubbock
Palisades Fire from a flight arriving at LAX.
Credit: Mark Viniello
Credit: Mark Viniello
January 8, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Palisades Fire from a flight arriving at LAX.
Credit: Mark Viniello
Credit: Mark Viniello
The context for Labour's relaunch on the NHS – the public has soured on their handling of health over the last 6 months.
From a rating of -32 in July to -52 now
From a rating of -32 in July to -52 now
January 7, 2025 at 12:28 PM
The context for Labour's relaunch on the NHS – the public has soured on their handling of health over the last 6 months.
From a rating of -32 in July to -52 now
From a rating of -32 in July to -52 now
China has just overtaken Europe for all-time emissions
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/19/climate/china-emissions-fossil-fuels-climate.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/19/climate/china-emissions-fossil-fuels-climate.html
How China's Rising Emissions Could Change Global Climate Politics
China has now passed Europe in its historical contribution to global warming. Rich nations say the country should contribute more climate aid.
www.nytimes.com
November 19, 2024 at 11:24 AM
China has just overtaken Europe for all-time emissions
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/19/climate/china-emissions-fossil-fuels-climate.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/19/climate/china-emissions-fossil-fuels-climate.html
The fundamentals of this race right here:
Trump favorability 2020: -9
Trump favorability 2024: +2
Trump favorability 2020: -9
Trump favorability 2024: +2
October 29, 2024 at 9:07 AM
The fundamentals of this race right here:
Trump favorability 2020: -9
Trump favorability 2024: +2
Trump favorability 2020: -9
Trump favorability 2024: +2
The thing that makes this cycle so different to others is that Trump has always been an underdog. The fact that he is not this time round is one of the many variables that makes this race (still) so uncertain
October 28, 2024 at 2:03 PM
The thing that makes this cycle so different to others is that Trump has always been an underdog. The fact that he is not this time round is one of the many variables that makes this race (still) so uncertain
Listening to Sam Coates and Jack Blanchard talking about the plan for the NHS and the plan for Prisons.
Tuned out for 2 seconds for a bite of toast and genuinely don't know which one they are talking about. Smart watches for patients/prisoners and moving patients/prisoners into the community?
Tuned out for 2 seconds for a bite of toast and genuinely don't know which one they are talking about. Smart watches for patients/prisoners and moving patients/prisoners into the community?
October 22, 2024 at 10:02 AM
Listening to Sam Coates and Jack Blanchard talking about the plan for the NHS and the plan for Prisons.
Tuned out for 2 seconds for a bite of toast and genuinely don't know which one they are talking about. Smart watches for patients/prisoners and moving patients/prisoners into the community?
Tuned out for 2 seconds for a bite of toast and genuinely don't know which one they are talking about. Smart watches for patients/prisoners and moving patients/prisoners into the community?