Thelonious
@theloniousgoerz.bsky.social
Ph.D. Candidate at Cornell Sociology studying demography, stratification, segregation, race, quantitative methods. Theloniousgoerz.github.io
New working paper up on SocArxiv! osf.io/preprints/so.... I use the 1940 Census and linked mortality records in combination with an IV-design to study the causal effects of racial segregation on longevity. I show that segregation reduces both Black and White longevity.
November 13, 2025 at 2:52 PM
New working paper up on SocArxiv! osf.io/preprints/so.... I use the 1940 Census and linked mortality records in combination with an IV-design to study the causal effects of racial segregation on longevity. I show that segregation reduces both Black and White longevity.
So grateful for this office view!
November 7, 2025 at 5:31 PM
So grateful for this office view!
Reposted by Thelonious
Excited to post a new working paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár: arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572
Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!
Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!
Leniency Designs: An Operator's Manual
We develop a step-by-step guide to leniency (a.k.a. judge or examiner instrument) designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures. The unbiased jackknife instrumental variables estimator (UJIVE) is...
arxiv.org
November 6, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Excited to post a new working paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár: arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572
Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!
Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!
Reposted by Thelonious
A huge congratulations to DOCTOR Haowen Zheng, who defended a fantastic dissertation on how changes in family formation and in the spatial distribution of jobs in US affects who moves, where they move to, & who benefits most from moving.
Haowen starts a post-doc at Michigan's Stone Center in Jan.
Haowen starts a post-doc at Michigan's Stone Center in Jan.
October 30, 2025 at 11:56 AM
A huge congratulations to DOCTOR Haowen Zheng, who defended a fantastic dissertation on how changes in family formation and in the spatial distribution of jobs in US affects who moves, where they move to, & who benefits most from moving.
Haowen starts a post-doc at Michigan's Stone Center in Jan.
Haowen starts a post-doc at Michigan's Stone Center in Jan.
Reposted by Thelonious
Other academics are fighting (sometimes literally) one another to publish Nature papers. But I am just sitting here writing abstraction layers for probabilistic programming frameworks.
October 28, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Other academics are fighting (sometimes literally) one another to publish Nature papers. But I am just sitting here writing abstraction layers for probabilistic programming frameworks.
Reposted by Thelonious
New @pnas.org paper constructing subnational estimates of internet and mobile adoption by gender, including gender gaps, for 117 low- and middle- income countries from 2015 through 2025.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Mapping subnational gender gaps in internet and mobile adoption using social media data | PNAS
The digital revolution has ushered in many societal and economic benefits. Yet access
to digital technologies such as mobile phones and internet re...
www.pnas.org
October 15, 2025 at 3:05 AM
New @pnas.org paper constructing subnational estimates of internet and mobile adoption by gender, including gender gaps, for 117 low- and middle- income countries from 2015 through 2025.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Thelonious
The pronatalists have done an excellent job of using bad demography to convince the legacy media that low birth rates are a crisis.
They are using bad demography to whitewash their sexism, racism, Christian nationalism, classism, & anti-LGBTQ sentiments.
It’s why my colleagues & I wrote this:
They are using bad demography to whitewash their sexism, racism, Christian nationalism, classism, & anti-LGBTQ sentiments.
It’s why my colleagues & I wrote this:
September 2, 2025 at 1:07 PM
The pronatalists have done an excellent job of using bad demography to convince the legacy media that low birth rates are a crisis.
They are using bad demography to whitewash their sexism, racism, Christian nationalism, classism, & anti-LGBTQ sentiments.
It’s why my colleagues & I wrote this:
They are using bad demography to whitewash their sexism, racism, Christian nationalism, classism, & anti-LGBTQ sentiments.
It’s why my colleagues & I wrote this:
Reposted by Thelonious
Both the Brown and Columbia agreements require the universities to report the test scores and GPAs of applicants, admits, and matriculating students by race *and color,* among other attributes.
Wait, what? What's "color" doing in there?
A sociologist weighs in.
1/9
Wait, what? What's "color" doing in there?
A sociologist weighs in.
1/9
July 31, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Both the Brown and Columbia agreements require the universities to report the test scores and GPAs of applicants, admits, and matriculating students by race *and color,* among other attributes.
Wait, what? What's "color" doing in there?
A sociologist weighs in.
1/9
Wait, what? What's "color" doing in there?
A sociologist weighs in.
1/9
Reposted by Thelonious
the destruction of chattel slavery is one of the great accomplishments in our nation's history and the reason conservatives hate celebrating it is because doing so legitimizes the black counter-narrative of the united states
June 19, 2025 at 4:01 PM
the destruction of chattel slavery is one of the great accomplishments in our nation's history and the reason conservatives hate celebrating it is because doing so legitimizes the black counter-narrative of the united states
Reposted by Thelonious
I want to highlight 3 things from this excellent report:
1) Women's reproductive labor is too often the solution to "population problems."
2) Low birth rates aren't a rejection of children & parenthood.
3) Supporting families is a worthy goal in itself, even if policies don't raise birth rates. 1/
1) Women's reproductive labor is too often the solution to "population problems."
2) Low birth rates aren't a rejection of children & parenthood.
3) Supporting families is a worthy goal in itself, even if policies don't raise birth rates. 1/
📢 Coercive policies like baby bonuses or fertility targets won't fix falling birth rates.
People need help overcoming the barriers to parenthood they face.
Let @unfpa.org—the #UnitedNations sexual and reproductive health agency—explain ➡️ unf.pa/rfc
#TheRealFertilityCrisis
People need help overcoming the barriers to parenthood they face.
Let @unfpa.org—the #UnitedNations sexual and reproductive health agency—explain ➡️ unf.pa/rfc
#TheRealFertilityCrisis
June 11, 2025 at 3:53 PM
I want to highlight 3 things from this excellent report:
1) Women's reproductive labor is too often the solution to "population problems."
2) Low birth rates aren't a rejection of children & parenthood.
3) Supporting families is a worthy goal in itself, even if policies don't raise birth rates. 1/
1) Women's reproductive labor is too often the solution to "population problems."
2) Low birth rates aren't a rejection of children & parenthood.
3) Supporting families is a worthy goal in itself, even if policies don't raise birth rates. 1/
Reposted by Thelonious
Sad that this has to be my first post here, but the gutting of the FSRDC program is disastrous for demographic research.
EXTREMELY BAD NEWS for economic research, per former BLS Commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social on LinkedIn.
BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS.
#EconSky
BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS.
#EconSky
June 6, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Sad that this has to be my first post here, but the gutting of the FSRDC program is disastrous for demographic research.
Reposted by Thelonious
The honorable mention goes to Haowen Zheng, “Diverging Trajectories: Gendered Income Dynamics Pre- and Post-Family Migration.” 2/3
June 4, 2025 at 1:59 PM
The honorable mention goes to Haowen Zheng, “Diverging Trajectories: Gendered Income Dynamics Pre- and Post-Family Migration.” 2/3
Reposted by Thelonious
An example of the disruption to science caused by the NSF’s 15% overhead dictate: At the University of Washington, all newly awarded NSF grants are now on hold indefinitely with no advance spending allowed.
May 6, 2025 at 10:55 PM
An example of the disruption to science caused by the NSF’s 15% overhead dictate: At the University of Washington, all newly awarded NSF grants are now on hold indefinitely with no advance spending allowed.
Reposted by Thelonious
Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Credible Answers to Hard Questions: Differences-in-Differences for Natural Experiments
This book introduces applied researchers to modern Differences-in-Differences (DID) methods, that they can use to obtain credible answers to hard causal inferen
papers.ssrn.com
April 18, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Feeling thrilled to have successfully defended my M.A. thesis today to advance to Ph.D. candidacy!
May 1, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Feeling thrilled to have successfully defended my M.A. thesis today to advance to Ph.D. candidacy!
Reposted by Thelonious
Our Annual Review of Sociology article on conceptualizing and measuring structural racism is now available.
Get it while studying racism is still legal. @tyson-brown.bsky.social @pahoman.bsky.social
(also, lots of great articles are in this volume).
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Get it while studying racism is still legal. @tyson-brown.bsky.social @pahoman.bsky.social
(also, lots of great articles are in this volume).
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Advancing the Scientific Study of Structural Racism: Concepts, Measures, and Methods | Annual Reviews
This review provides 10 actionable recommendations for advancing the scientific study of structural racism through theoretically grounded and empirically robust measures and methods. By offering conce...
www.annualreviews.org
May 1, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Our Annual Review of Sociology article on conceptualizing and measuring structural racism is now available.
Get it while studying racism is still legal. @tyson-brown.bsky.social @pahoman.bsky.social
(also, lots of great articles are in this volume).
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Get it while studying racism is still legal. @tyson-brown.bsky.social @pahoman.bsky.social
(also, lots of great articles are in this volume).
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Reposted by Thelonious
The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences?
This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
Three Ways of Looking at Black–White Mortality Differences in the United States | Annual Reviews
Everyone agrees that US Black deaths happen earlier than white deaths on average, but it is surprisingly challenging to find the best ways to summarize, quantify, and compare this gap. This review arg...
www.annualreviews.org
April 30, 2025 at 8:27 PM
The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences?
This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
Reposted by Thelonious
Very excited to have this paper with @franciscaantman.bsky.social Bruce Weinberg, and Sgeng Qu out on the (positive!) long run effects of the @aeainformation.bsky.social Mentoring program.
www.nber.org/papers/w33689
www.nber.org/papers/w33689
April 14, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Very excited to have this paper with @franciscaantman.bsky.social Bruce Weinberg, and Sgeng Qu out on the (positive!) long run effects of the @aeainformation.bsky.social Mentoring program.
www.nber.org/papers/w33689
www.nber.org/papers/w33689
Reposted by Thelonious
these people are literally trying to destroy america’s future
Meet Gracie Himes, age 20.
Her goal: Fight cancer by developing new medicines.
On March 3, her dreams were shattered when Trump admin cuts hit West Virginia University, which rescinded her PhD program offer.
www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...
Her goal: Fight cancer by developing new medicines.
On March 3, her dreams were shattered when Trump admin cuts hit West Virginia University, which rescinded her PhD program offer.
www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...
March 14, 2025 at 1:21 PM
these people are literally trying to destroy america’s future
Reposted by Thelonious
Helpful NYT article showing 30 exclusion restriction violations for studies claiming covid is an instrument for their preferred x variable
nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/09/upshot/covid-lockdown-five-year-charts.html
nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/09/upshot/covid-lockdown-five-year-charts.html
30 Charts That Show How Everything Changed in March 2020
It can be easy to forget, or look away from, the pain and disruption of the pandemic. The numbers will be there to remind us.
nytimes.com
March 10, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Helpful NYT article showing 30 exclusion restriction violations for studies claiming covid is an instrument for their preferred x variable
nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/09/upshot/covid-lockdown-five-year-charts.html
nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/09/upshot/covid-lockdown-five-year-charts.html
Reposted by Thelonious
My rough guess is that about 1/3 of young Democrats identify as LGBTQ+. Keep that in mind when thinking about what issues folks are labeling a "distraction" - for young Dems especially, LGBTQ+ issues are not remotely niche. scatter.wordpress.com/2025/02/24/t...
the future of the democratic party is queer
Last week, Gallup released new data on the demographics of LGBTQ+ folks in the United States. Tristan Bridges has a fantastic write-up here with nice visualizations. Some key highlights include the…
scatter.wordpress.com
February 24, 2025 at 3:07 PM
My rough guess is that about 1/3 of young Democrats identify as LGBTQ+. Keep that in mind when thinking about what issues folks are labeling a "distraction" - for young Dems especially, LGBTQ+ issues are not remotely niche. scatter.wordpress.com/2025/02/24/t...
Reposted by Thelonious
Needing a six-figure salary to purchase a home means many Americans are cut off from the primary avenue for building intergenerational wealth. www.nbcnews.com/data-graphic...
Do you need to make $100,000 to buy a home? Census data says yes
The median new homebuyer household income exceeds $100,000 in more than half the country.
www.nbcnews.com
February 22, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Needing a six-figure salary to purchase a home means many Americans are cut off from the primary avenue for building intergenerational wealth. www.nbcnews.com/data-graphic...
In spite of everything, my morning commute to campus is peaceful and the snow is pretty .
February 7, 2025 at 3:00 PM
In spite of everything, my morning commute to campus is peaceful and the snow is pretty .
Reposted by Thelonious
It's Monday, so over at the blog I wrote about two great new papers that take a swing at what you can and can't do with sibling data.
asocial.substack.com/p/two-great-...
asocial.substack.com/p/two-great-...
Two Great Reads - Monday - December 2
Siblings!
asocial.substack.com
December 2, 2024 at 12:09 PM
It's Monday, so over at the blog I wrote about two great new papers that take a swing at what you can and can't do with sibling data.
asocial.substack.com/p/two-great-...
asocial.substack.com/p/two-great-...