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theifs.bsky.social
The Institute for Fiscal Studies
@theifs.bsky.social
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Official account for Britain’s leading independent economic research institute. https://ifs.org.uk/
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theifs.bsky.social
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 2d
📆 We are now less than a week away from the Autumn Budget – sign up here to join our post-Budget briefing event where we'll present our overnight analysis of the Chancellor's announcements: ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis | Institute for Fiscal Studies
At this online webinar IFS researchers present their initial response to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget.
ifs.org.uk
theifs.bsky.social
'Despite austerity over the 2010s, the size of the state has jumped up in recent years'

@helenmiller.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social discuss trends in the size of the state in our latest podcast episode on how the Chancellor could cut spending.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
November 22, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
itvpeston.bsky.social
Income tax rate rises might be out but threshold freeze extensions seem locked in 🥶📉

On Wednesday’s #Peston,
@pippacrerar.bsky.social
took us through what these freezes mean in real terms and their impact on your payslips 💷

🤓 Data from
@matthewoulton.bsky.social
from
@theifs.bsky.social
📊
November 21, 2025 at 11:12 AM
theifs.bsky.social
'Had all the tax raising options been on the table, we would've seen less speculation about itty bitty tax changes.'

Ahead of the Budget, @helenmiller.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social discuss the economic impact of speculation.

🎧 Listen to our podcast here: ifs.org.uk/articles/bud...
November 21, 2025 at 11:02 AM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: Freezes to housing support have reduced disposable incomes and widened geographic disparities for low-income renters.

📗 Read Jed Michael and Tom Wernham’s new briefing on the implications of local housing allowance (LHA) rate freezes: [THREAD 🧵]
Map shows estimated shortfall in Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rate relative to 30th percentile, by Broad Rental Market Area, for two-bed properties. Title states: "The ongoing cash freeze to Local Housing Allowances constitutes a real cut in support for low-income private renters, reducing their disposable incomes and exacerbating geographical disparities."
November 21, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
Today’s ONS public finances statistics show that government borrowing between April and October has outpaced the OBR’s March forecast. A sizeable chunk of this comes from higher-than-expected local government borrowing. Tax receipts are also coming in lower than expected.
Chart shows public sector net borrowing to October by financial year: outturns and OBR forecast. Title states: "Government borrowing so far this year is up slightly on recent years, and is £9.9 billion higher than was expected in March."
November 21, 2025 at 7:46 AM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: The government has today published a policy statement on local government finance and a set of changes to plans for local government funding reform in England.

📗 Read Kate Ogden and David Phillips' immediate response to the statement here: ifs.org.uk/articles/imm...
Immediate response to the local government finance policy statement | Institute for Fiscal Studies
An immediate response to announced changes to government plans for reform of the local government funding system in England
ifs.org.uk
November 20, 2025 at 5:44 PM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW PODCAST: How could the Chancellor cut spending?

Where does the government actually spend its money? And why is it so difficult to reduce that spending in practice?

🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and Tom Waters explore in our new podcast: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
November 20, 2025 at 4:35 PM
theifs.bsky.social
📆 We are now less than a week away from the Autumn Budget – sign up here to join our post-Budget briefing event where we'll present our overnight analysis of the Chancellor's announcements: ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis | Institute for Fiscal Studies
At this online webinar IFS researchers present their initial response to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget.
ifs.org.uk
November 20, 2025 at 3:21 PM
theifs.bsky.social
'Rachel Reeves has put 51 miles worth of petrol in her car and has to go 50 miles.'

In our IFS Zooms In episode on options for the upcoming Budget, @benzaranko.bsky.social explains the damaging consequences of policy instability.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/bud...
November 20, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
itvpeston.bsky.social
At #PMQs, the Prime Minister didn’t rule out extending the freeze in income tax thresholds💰

We asked @theifs.bsky.social how much more tax people will pay if this goes ahead 📊

Watch Pippa's #Screeny analysis for more tonight ⬇️

🔴 9PM LIVE X & YouTube
📺 1045PM ITV1

#Peston
Bar chart showing the additional income tax paid annually if Threshold freezes are extended (2025 prices). Pink shows the higher rate. White shows the basic rate. Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Watch live on Youtube at 9pm, or at 11pm on ITV1.
November 19, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
benzaranko.bsky.social
Amidst ceaseless discussion of possible tax rises, it's worth remembering that spending cuts could be part of any Budget consolidation package. One challenge is that detailed department-level spending plans up to 2028–29 were agreed only in June...

We've looked at the options 👇
November 19, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
beeboileau.bsky.social
We have a new report out on health & employment in people's late 50s and early 60s. One key finding is these widening gaps in the share of women experiencing depressive symptoms by wealth - likely to be an important headwind for a government looking to boost employment rates.
theifs.bsky.social The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3d
NEW: Depressive symptoms have risen among women in their late 50s and early 60s, particularly among the least wealthy women.

📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]
Chart shows percentage of 55- to 64-year-old women experiencing depressive symptoms, by third of the wealth distribution, 2002–03 to 2023–24. Title states: "39% of the poorest third of 55- to 64-year-old women reported depressive symptoms in 2023–24, compared to 10% of the wealthiest third."
November 19, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
beeboileau.bsky.social
We've written an explainer going through some of the options available to the Chancellor on departmental spending at next week's Budget:
theifs.bsky.social The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 3d
NEW: What are Rachel Reeves’ options if she decides to change departmental spending at next week’s Budget?

📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
November 19, 2025 at 1:36 PM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: What are Rachel Reeves’ options if she decides to change departmental spending at next week’s Budget?

📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
November 19, 2025 at 10:28 AM
theifs.bsky.social
STARTING NOW: Health, wealth and employment in the run up to state pension age

Join the launch of our new report on health and employment for those in their 50s and 60s.

🖥️ Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKzS...
❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/1eFR29...
Health, wealth and employment in the run up to state pension age
Patterns of employment among those in their 50s and 60s have changed substantially in recent decades. In a context of rising life expectancy and an ageing UK population, understanding the factors…
www.youtube.com
November 19, 2025 at 9:59 AM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: Depressive symptoms have risen among women in their late 50s and early 60s, particularly among the least wealthy women.

📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]
Chart shows percentage of 55- to 64-year-old women experiencing depressive symptoms, by third of the wealth distribution, 2002–03 to 2023–24. Title states: "39% of the poorest third of 55- to 64-year-old women reported depressive symptoms in 2023–24, compared to 10% of the wealthiest third."
November 19, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
'The projected borrowing for the UK is set to come down... that's not true in lots of other comparable countries.'

🎧 Listen to @helenmiller.bsky.social & @benzaranko.bsky.social discuss how the UK's government debt compares to other countries ahead of next week's Budget: ifs.org.uk/articles/bud...
November 18, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
benzaranko.bsky.social
This is the point. Policy *should not* be adjusted or fine-tuned in response to minor forecasting judgements. Decisions about whether or not to break a prominent manifesto promise *should not* depend on minor forecasting judgements. This stuff matters. We've got to do better than this.
duncanweldon.bsky.social Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 8d
I know it’s always like this. But one striking thing from the budget kite flying and kite pulling back in, is how major policy decisions are constantly being buffeted around by iterative forecast changes.
All feels a bit of a silly way to be making major economic policy & political decisions.
November 14, 2025 at 3:23 PM
theifs.bsky.social
"If I lost £10 billion behind the sofa, I'd spend a bit of time working out where it is.”

@helenmiller.bsky.social and @danneidle.bsky.social discuss the scale of the corporation tax gap with small businesses, from our live podcast on tax options.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
November 17, 2025 at 9:02 AM
theifs.bsky.social
What counts as breaking Labour's manifesto pledge to not 'increase taxes on working people'?

@helenmiller.bsky.social and @danneidle.bsky.social discuss whether 2p on income tax and 2p off Employee National Insurance would count, from our live podcast.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
November 16, 2025 at 9:01 AM
theifs.bsky.social
📈 #IFSSatStat: Continuing the current freeze on personal tax thresholds for another two years would mean that by 2029–30, 17% of age 16+ population will pay the higher rate of tax: equivalent to 10.1 million people.

In 2021–22, just 8% were higher-rate tax payers.
Chart shows number of higher-rate tax payers as a share of the population aged over 16. Title states: "17% of people aged 16 or over would be higher-rate tax payers in 2029–30 if tax threshold freezes are extended for another two years."
November 15, 2025 at 9:10 AM
theifs.bsky.social
"It's kind of crazy how many people pay the higher rate [of income tax] now.”

@helenmiller.bsky.social and @danneidle.bsky.social discuss the prospect of continued fiscal drag and more higher-rate tax payers, from our podcast on tax ahead of the Budget.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
November 14, 2025 at 4:02 PM
theifs.bsky.social
"The amount that the freeze so far has raised has been radically different from what they expected at the time they announced it."

Stuart Adam and @danneidle.bsky.social explain why frozen tax thresholds can raise unexpected amounts in our live podcast.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
November 14, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
benzaranko.bsky.social
This is the issue with our current fiscal framework and policymaking equilibrium. It's why, once (if?) the UK gets its house in order (i.e. gets to current/primary surplus), we should consider alternatives to pass-fail rules assessed against the point estimate of an uncertain, moving forecast.
dsquareddigest.bsky.social Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 8d
Yes! It's intrinsic to the system and can't be designed out. If the government is right on the fiscal envelope, policy is driven by a forecast residual, which by its nature is going to swing positive and negative. If it's not on the envelope, the political economy incentives are to push until it is
November 14, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Reposted by The Institute for Fiscal Studies
benzaranko.bsky.social
Your regular reminder that, while it doesn't have every policy option under the sun, @theifs.bsky.social Be the Chancellor tool will tell you how much could be raised from a whole raft of policy changes (e.g. cutting higher-rate threshold by £10k raises ~£17bn).

ifs.org.uk/be-chancellor
November 14, 2025 at 11:56 AM