Steve Carpenter
@steve-carpenter.bsky.social
Ecosystem science, Global change, Assessments and Scenarios. Co-EiC of Ecosystems with @MonicaGTurner.bsky.social. My website:
https://limnology.wisc.edu/faculty/stephen-r-carpenter/
https://limnology.wisc.edu/faculty/stephen-r-carpenter/
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Dismissed as a joke, UK's first rice crop ripe for picking after hot summer
www.bbc.com/news/article...
"The trial is trying to answer big questions about how we can produce enough food and protect farmer's livelihoods in a world being altered by climate change."
www.bbc.com/news/article...
"The trial is trying to answer big questions about how we can produce enough food and protect farmer's livelihoods in a world being altered by climate change."
UK's first rice crop ripe for picking after hot summer
Paddy fields are thriving in a quiet part of east England and might help feed us in the future.
www.bbc.com
September 30, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Dismissed as a joke, UK's first rice crop ripe for picking after hot summer
www.bbc.com/news/article...
"The trial is trying to answer big questions about how we can produce enough food and protect farmer's livelihoods in a world being altered by climate change."
www.bbc.com/news/article...
"The trial is trying to answer big questions about how we can produce enough food and protect farmer's livelihoods in a world being altered by climate change."
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
The Traffic Noise Externality: Costs, Incidence and Policy Implications
Moretti+
eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/noi...
"aggregate economic cost of traffic noise at $110 billion" in USA
a "shift to electric vehicles...could yield noise reduction benefits of $77.3 billion"
Moretti+
eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/noi...
"aggregate economic cost of traffic noise at $110 billion" in USA
a "shift to electric vehicles...could yield noise reduction benefits of $77.3 billion"
September 30, 2025 at 7:37 AM
The Traffic Noise Externality: Costs, Incidence and Policy Implications
Moretti+
eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/noi...
"aggregate economic cost of traffic noise at $110 billion" in USA
a "shift to electric vehicles...could yield noise reduction benefits of $77.3 billion"
Moretti+
eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/noi...
"aggregate economic cost of traffic noise at $110 billion" in USA
a "shift to electric vehicles...could yield noise reduction benefits of $77.3 billion"
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
The rate of expansion of tropical cyclones increases with the relative sea surface temperature (SST), which is the difference between local SST and the tropical mean temperature. These changes in relative SST will complicate storm forecasting. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
September 29, 2025 at 7:54 PM
The rate of expansion of tropical cyclones increases with the relative sea surface temperature (SST), which is the difference between local SST and the tropical mean temperature. These changes in relative SST will complicate storm forecasting. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Thawing permafrost is going to be a problem in more ways than one.
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/202...
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/202...
Why Alaska’s salmon streams are suddenly bleeding orange
Warming Arctic permafrost is unlocking toxic metals, turning Alaska’s once-clear rivers into orange, acid-laced streams. The shift, eerily similar to mine pollution but entirely natural, threatens fis...
www.sciencedaily.com
September 29, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Thawing permafrost is going to be a problem in more ways than one.
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/202...
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/202...
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Plants cool the land through evapotranspiration, but green foliage can absorb more heat than lighter surfaces, causing warming. A study finds that in the northern hemisphere, cooling outweighs warming until the end of the growing season. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
September 24, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Plants cool the land through evapotranspiration, but green foliage can absorb more heat than lighter surfaces, causing warming. A study finds that in the northern hemisphere, cooling outweighs warming until the end of the growing season. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Altered controls of ANPP between two LT studies at Konza Prairie (1975-1993 & 2005-2023): doubled response to fire, greater impact of rising VPD. Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social
Revisiting Patterns and Controls of Productivity in a Mesic Grassland 30 Years Later: Do We Know Now What We Knew Then? - Ecosystems
Given the rapid pace of global change, determining if our past understanding of the controls of ecosystem structure and function remains robust today is essential for managing and conserving ecosystems. Here, we revisit a foundational study that evaluated patterns and controls of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) across topographic gradients and in response to fire frequency treatments from 1975 to 1993 in tallgrass prairie (Konza Prairie). We replicated this 30-year-old study for a contemporary period (2005–2023) and found that overall patterns of ANPP across fire treatments and topographic gradients remained consistent. However, the magnitude of ANPP responses to fire increased substantially (> twofold) in lowlands, resulting in greater landscape-scale divergence in ANPP. Differences in temporal variability among topographic positions and fire regimes also increased (~ fourfold). Annual precipitation remained a primary determinant of ANPP, but atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has emerged as a new driver in contemporary times. Furthermore, air temperature and deep soil moisture have now become significant controls of ANPP in unburned grassland. We conclude that despite myriad global changes, the primary controls of ANPP have not changed dramatically over three decades, but additional drivers have emerged (notably VPD), and the magnitude of responses to fire have been altered. Increased spatial variation in ANPP as well as interannual variability in ANPP differing more strongly among sites will be particularly challenging for managing this rare grassland. As temperatures and VPD continue to increase, additional revision to our understanding of the functioning of this and other ecosystems will likely be necessary.
doi.org
September 29, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Altered controls of ANPP between two LT studies at Konza Prairie (1975-1993 & 2005-2023): doubled response to fire, greater impact of rising VPD. Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social
Decadal recovery of previously-drained peatlands - implication for C storage? Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social
Effect of Restoration on Physical and Chemical Peat Properties in Previously Drained Boreal Peatlands - Ecosystems
There is a societal demand to restore drained boreal peatlands for purposes of improving water quality and biodiversity and lowering emissions of greenhouse gases. Restoration measures are costly and neither the effects of drainage nor restoration on biogeochemical processes in the peat, and in downstream environments are well understood. This study assesses how 60–100 years of drainage followed by 6–9 years of restored conditions have changed the physical and chemical peat properties in restored boreal peatlands. Eight pairs of restored and natural peatlands were sampled down to 50 cm (n = 3 for each site). Each of the 50 cm peat cores was sliced into 25 two-centimetre discs, generating high-resolution records of the dry bulk density (BD), organic matter content (OM), C- and N- content, δ13C, and δ15N. Peat from the restored sites showed significantly higher BD and lower C:N ratio and OM content than the reference sites. Furthermore, peat from restored peatlands was systematically depleted in δ13C, and the OM was enriched in C and N. Long-term drainage could cause increased peat decomposition, leaving altered physical and chemical peat properties. For example, the C content in OM increases as the residual peat is enriched in aromatic and aliphatic moieties following decomposition. For the same reason, degraded peat can be δ13C depleted. Interestingly, differences between the restored and pristine sites were mainly found at 20–50 cm depth. Given the low peat formation rates in nutrient-poor peatlands, the superficial 20 cm peat was potentially recovering from drainage even before restoration.
doi.org
September 29, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Decadal recovery of previously-drained peatlands - implication for C storage? Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social
Bottlenecks to organic energy flow through pelagic foodweb - Bay of Biscay. Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social
Identifying Bottlenecks to Energy Circulation in the Bay of Biscay Pelagic Food Web: Key Species Under the Spotlight - Ecosystems
Understanding the functioning and resilience of marine ecosystems requires identifying the main energy flow pathways. Key trophic groups occupy strategic positions in the trophic interactions network, acting as hubs that control the energy distribution across the ecosystem. This study examines the Bay of Biscay’s pelagic food web using stable isotope analysis with stomach content data, creating a network of 38 trophic groups and 125 interactions. Both annual-weighted and seasonal (spring and late summer) networks were constructed. The analysis of unweighted and weighted annual networks found that low-trophic level epipelagic fish (European anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus; sardine, Sardina pilchardus; and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) is a key trophic group displaying higher scores in many centrality indices. These forage fish play a central role in facilitating energy transfer across trophic levels, thus representing a critical link between the planktonic food web and higher trophic level predators and fisheries. Overall, annual networks showed that phytoplankton-dominated grazing chains support a higher diversity of predators compared to chains originating from particulate organic matter (POM). The analysis of weighted networks accounting for seasonal variations in trophic interactions revealed that, during late summer, predators occupy more vulnerable positions than in spring. Changes in feeding preferences cause blue whiting to shift from mostly depending on grazing chains during spring to occupying a position along POM-dominated chains in late summer. These findings highlight the need for fisheries management strategies to prioritize the conservation of key trophic groups supplying energy to predators while considering seasonal shifts in the structure of the energy flow network.
doi.org
September 29, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Bottlenecks to organic energy flow through pelagic foodweb - Bay of Biscay. Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social
Local to global: how stomates alter the water cycle. Rocha, Armesto et al. in Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social
Atmosphere, Vegetation, and Soil Water Coupling Determined by Stomatal Regulation of Transpiration - Ecosystems
Stomatal regulation plays a critical role in controlling tree water loss and mediating atmosphere–vegetation–soil water coupling, yet the implications of species-specific differences in stomatal regulation on this coupling remain poorly understood. Drimys species possess primitive leaf anatomy with limited stomatal closure capacity, while Nothofagus exhibits more effective stomatal control. We compared multi-year sap flux data from these two co-occurring Southern Chilean species to evaluate how stomatal traits influence water-coupling dynamics across timescales. Using boosted regression tree modeling and wavelet coherence analysis, we found that while both species showed similar functional responses to environmental drivers, the relative importance of these drivers differed between them. Both Drimys and Nothofagus responded to VPD, but Drimys sap flux was more strongly influenced by soil moisture, particularly during early season wet periods and late-season drought. In contrast, Nothofagus showed greater dependence on light and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), reflecting tighter stomatal regulation. Wavelet coherence analyses further confirmed stronger soil moisture control of sap flux in Drimys, especially at weekly to sub-seasonal timescales, and provided evidence that stomatal regulation can either buffer or amplify late-season soil moisture deficits. These findings suggest Drimys follows a high water use, low-conservation strategy closely tied to soil moisture, whereas Nothofagus demonstrates more conservative water use governed by atmospheric conditions. The strong soil moisture dependence of Drimys may increase its vulnerability to future warming and drying trends, with implications for forest composition and hydrological modeling in a changing climate.
doi.org
September 29, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Local to global: how stomates alter the water cycle. Rocha, Armesto et al. in Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Please, please, please-submit to good journals (society + reputed publishers), respect peer review, and do your reviews with integrity. So important. Thanks to all of you who do. @steve-carpenter.bsky.social @esajournals.bsky.social #Ecosystems
A new study, based on an analysis of thousands of publications and their authors and editors, shows paper mills are just part of a complex, interconnected system that includes publishers, journals, and brokers. scim.ag/3H9kwwQ
Scientific fraud has become an ‘industry,’ alarming analysis finds
Sophisticated global networks are infiltrating journals to publish fake papers
scim.ag
August 4, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Please, please, please-submit to good journals (society + reputed publishers), respect peer review, and do your reviews with integrity. So important. Thanks to all of you who do. @steve-carpenter.bsky.social @esajournals.bsky.social #Ecosystems
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Environmental challenges, like extreme weather events & critical changes in Earth systems, remain a priority, underlining the importance of risk mitigation in an interconnected world.🌐⚠️
—WEF Global Risks Report 2025
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/global-risks-report-2025-bleak-predictions/
—WEF Global Risks Report 2025
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/global-risks-report-2025-bleak-predictions/
September 21, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Environmental challenges, like extreme weather events & critical changes in Earth systems, remain a priority, underlining the importance of risk mitigation in an interconnected world.🌐⚠️
—WEF Global Risks Report 2025
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/global-risks-report-2025-bleak-predictions/
—WEF Global Risks Report 2025
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/global-risks-report-2025-bleak-predictions/
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
It's interesting that anyone would be surprised by this. They are large language models, not large fact models. They are very good at language; it's unsurprising that they aren't terribly good at facts.
"In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limits."
www.computerworld.com/article/4059...
www.computerworld.com/article/4059...
OpenAI admits AI hallucinations are mathematically inevitable, not just engineering flaws
In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limi...
www.computerworld.com
September 21, 2025 at 1:21 PM
It's interesting that anyone would be surprised by this. They are large language models, not large fact models. They are very good at language; it's unsurprising that they aren't terribly good at facts.
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
In #ScienceUnderSiege (www.barnesandnoble.com/w/science-un...), @peterhotezmdphd.bsky.social and I criticize the NY Times for pushing unhelpful antiscience (like the "Lab Leak Theory" for COVID-19) or fossil fuel-friendly framing (e.g. in this case, "geoengineering" as a climate solution):
September 21, 2025 at 1:39 PM
In #ScienceUnderSiege (www.barnesandnoble.com/w/science-un...), @peterhotezmdphd.bsky.social and I criticize the NY Times for pushing unhelpful antiscience (like the "Lab Leak Theory" for COVID-19) or fossil fuel-friendly framing (e.g. in this case, "geoengineering" as a climate solution):
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Posts about scientific research on Bluesky receive substantially more attention than similar posts on Twitter. More importantly, you're far less likely to get sexist or racist replies.
Research posts on Bluesky are more original — and get better engagement
Bluesky posts about science garner more likes and reposts than similar ones on X.
go.nature.com
August 29, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Posts about scientific research on Bluesky receive substantially more attention than similar posts on Twitter. More importantly, you're far less likely to get sexist or racist replies.
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous than they were 20 years ago, when Hurricane Katrina made landfall. Here's how:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-...
How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous » Yale Climate Connections
Stronger wind speeds, more rain, and worsened storm surge add up to more potential destruction.
yaleclimateconnections.org
August 29, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous than they were 20 years ago, when Hurricane Katrina made landfall. Here's how:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-...
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
What a cursed sentence (gift link)
“The A.I. companies selected to oversee the program would have a strong financial incentive to deny claims. Medicare plans to pay them a share of the savings generated from rejections.”
“The A.I. companies selected to oversee the program would have a strong financial incentive to deny claims. Medicare plans to pay them a share of the savings generated from rejections.”
Medicare Will Require Prior Approval for Certain Procedures
www.nytimes.com
August 29, 2025 at 12:43 PM
What a cursed sentence (gift link)
“The A.I. companies selected to oversee the program would have a strong financial incentive to deny claims. Medicare plans to pay them a share of the savings generated from rejections.”
“The A.I. companies selected to oversee the program would have a strong financial incentive to deny claims. Medicare plans to pay them a share of the savings generated from rejections.”
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
A new study published today in @nature.com, co-authored by researchers at the University of Minnesota, Project Drawdown, and other institutions, reveals a troubling feedback loop 🔁:
drawdown.org/news/climate...
drawdown.org/news/climate...
Climate change increases global farmland area and agricultural emissions, study finds
Our mission is to help the world reach “Drawdown" as quickly, safely, and equitably as possible.
drawdown.org
June 20, 2025 at 4:09 PM
A new study published today in @nature.com, co-authored by researchers at the University of Minnesota, Project Drawdown, and other institutions, reveals a troubling feedback loop 🔁:
drawdown.org/news/climate...
drawdown.org/news/climate...
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
We talk a lot about the level of climate warming, have we passed a given threshold, and less about the rate. The rate is the core problem: we are changing climate faster than society or the environment can adapt. If it took 10,000 years to warm by 2 C, this would be a different conversation.
June 23, 2025 at 11:25 PM
We talk a lot about the level of climate warming, have we passed a given threshold, and less about the rate. The rate is the core problem: we are changing climate faster than society or the environment can adapt. If it took 10,000 years to warm by 2 C, this would be a different conversation.
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
This new map provides a global view of the distribution of a multitude of aquatic ecosystems, including various wetlands. It's a pretty big step forward, and I look forward to seeing how it will be used e.g. to study wetland greenhouse gases.
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Mapping the world's inland surface waters: an upgrade to the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD v2)
Abstract. In recognition of the importance of inland waters, numerous datasets mapping their extents, types, or changes have been created using sources ranging from historical wetland maps to real-tim...
essd.copernicus.org
June 4, 2025 at 1:57 PM
This new map provides a global view of the distribution of a multitude of aquatic ecosystems, including various wetlands. It's a pretty big step forward, and I look forward to seeing how it will be used e.g. to study wetland greenhouse gases.
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
If you are interested in lakes and the role of nitrogen pollution in degrading them, here's a summary talk of 30+ years of our research presented at #aslo this spring. www.youtube.com/watch?v=liIa...
ASLO 2025 Plenary: The Ruth Patrick Award is Presented to Peter Leavitt
YouTube video by ASLO
www.youtube.com
June 4, 2025 at 9:28 PM
If you are interested in lakes and the role of nitrogen pollution in degrading them, here's a summary talk of 30+ years of our research presented at #aslo this spring. www.youtube.com/watch?v=liIa...
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
🎉 Congrats to Professor Emily Boyd, appointed as the new Director of the Beijer Institute! She joins from LUCSUS, where she’s served as Director for the past seven years.
We also wish to say a heartfelt thank you to Carl Folke, retiring in September, for his inspiring leadership over the years. 🌍💚
We also wish to say a heartfelt thank you to Carl Folke, retiring in September, for his inspiring leadership over the years. 🌍💚
June 5, 2025 at 9:08 AM
🎉 Congrats to Professor Emily Boyd, appointed as the new Director of the Beijer Institute! She joins from LUCSUS, where she’s served as Director for the past seven years.
We also wish to say a heartfelt thank you to Carl Folke, retiring in September, for his inspiring leadership over the years. 🌍💚
We also wish to say a heartfelt thank you to Carl Folke, retiring in September, for his inspiring leadership over the years. 🌍💚
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Out today in Nature, our paper on the drivers of the record 2023 summer heating of the North Atlantic. Temperatures warmed to record levels in just a few months. The impacts on climate & ecosystems were severe. A thread on how this work came about and what we found.👇👇🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
June 4, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Out today in Nature, our paper on the drivers of the record 2023 summer heating of the North Atlantic. Temperatures warmed to record levels in just a few months. The impacts on climate & ecosystems were severe. A thread on how this work came about and what we found.👇👇🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
New paper! led by Josh Dean “Old carbon routed from land to the atmosphere by global river systems”
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
#radiocarbon in #rivers reveals the age of CO2 they release to the atmosphere.
An active leak of old carbon from land.
🧪⚒️
@joshfdean.bsky.social @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
#radiocarbon in #rivers reveals the age of CO2 they release to the atmosphere.
An active leak of old carbon from land.
🧪⚒️
@joshfdean.bsky.social @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social
June 4, 2025 at 3:27 PM
New paper! led by Josh Dean “Old carbon routed from land to the atmosphere by global river systems”
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
#radiocarbon in #rivers reveals the age of CO2 they release to the atmosphere.
An active leak of old carbon from land.
🧪⚒️
@joshfdean.bsky.social @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
#radiocarbon in #rivers reveals the age of CO2 they release to the atmosphere.
An active leak of old carbon from land.
🧪⚒️
@joshfdean.bsky.social @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Office clean out days - amid the piles of paper, you can find some cool stuff @steve-carpenter.bsky.social
March 12, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Office clean out days - amid the piles of paper, you can find some cool stuff @steve-carpenter.bsky.social
Reposted by Steve Carpenter
Thank you @steve-carpenter.bsky.social for an inspiring plenary on resilience to start our Great Lakes Conference! @iaglr.bsky.social
June 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Thank you @steve-carpenter.bsky.social for an inspiring plenary on resilience to start our Great Lakes Conference! @iaglr.bsky.social