Stephen Sutton-Brown
@srbrown70.bsky.social
Braves, heat maps, cars, tractors, and music
Creator of StuffPro and Arsenal Metrics at Baseball Prospectus
He / him
Creator of StuffPro and Arsenal Metrics at Baseball Prospectus
He / him
good nuggets here
blogs.fangraphs.com/a-late-seaso...
blogs.fangraphs.com/a-late-seaso...
November 26, 2025 at 2:10 AM
good nuggets here
blogs.fangraphs.com/a-late-seaso...
blogs.fangraphs.com/a-late-seaso...
I can see the pearly gates
Where the angels wait
Standin' all around your big Cadillac
Won't you take me by the hand
Lead me to the promised land
And let me ride in your big Cadillac
Let me ride in your big Cadillac, Lord Jesus
Let me ride in your big Cadillac
Where the angels wait
Standin' all around your big Cadillac
Won't you take me by the hand
Lead me to the promised land
And let me ride in your big Cadillac
Let me ride in your big Cadillac, Lord Jesus
Let me ride in your big Cadillac
November 23, 2025 at 5:37 PM
I can see the pearly gates
Where the angels wait
Standin' all around your big Cadillac
Won't you take me by the hand
Lead me to the promised land
And let me ride in your big Cadillac
Let me ride in your big Cadillac, Lord Jesus
Let me ride in your big Cadillac
Where the angels wait
Standin' all around your big Cadillac
Won't you take me by the hand
Lead me to the promised land
And let me ride in your big Cadillac
Let me ride in your big Cadillac, Lord Jesus
Let me ride in your big Cadillac
not a good sign
November 22, 2025 at 4:58 PM
not a good sign
saving this for future uses
November 22, 2025 at 1:49 AM
saving this for future uses
For their learning bag they were told to bring in a picture of “their favorite spot in the community” and they insisted on pictures of Taco Bell lmao
November 21, 2025 at 3:43 PM
For their learning bag they were told to bring in a picture of “their favorite spot in the community” and they insisted on pictures of Taco Bell lmao
Made a simulator using a simplified version of a pitching model so I can start testing various pitching strategies (changing pitch usage rates by game state, targeting further outside the zone in certain situations, etc.).
Simulated results match reality pretty well!
Simulated results match reality pretty well!
November 21, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Made a simulator using a simplified version of a pitching model so I can start testing various pitching strategies (changing pitch usage rates by game state, targeting further outside the zone in certain situations, etc.).
Simulated results match reality pretty well!
Simulated results match reality pretty well!
Some rules of thumb for the Arsenal Metrics by pitch type:
November 19, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Some rules of thumb for the Arsenal Metrics by pitch type:
have this handy, where horizontal lines are the +/-1 standard deviation range for that pitch type. Surprise Factor is indexed to 100, same as Movement Spread & Velocity Spread, so anything above 100 is good and ~120 is truly elite. It does vary some by pitch type. For PtP I think ~65% is average
November 19, 2025 at 2:17 PM
have this handy, where horizontal lines are the +/-1 standard deviation range for that pitch type. Surprise Factor is indexed to 100, same as Movement Spread & Velocity Spread, so anything above 100 is good and ~120 is truly elite. It does vary some by pitch type. For PtP I think ~65% is average
If I'm understanding players right when they talk about this, I think this illustrates risks with an approach that looks to pull everything. First plot is sweep of Ohtani's barrel if he swings to target the fastball middle and at the front of the plate. Second is away and deep.
November 16, 2025 at 3:20 AM
If I'm understanding players right when they talk about this, I think this illustrates risks with an approach that looks to pull everything. First plot is sweep of Ohtani's barrel if he swings to target the fastball middle and at the front of the plate. Second is away and deep.
Ok thinking about this more. If I don't modify the attack_direction vs int_y slope I get this bat path assuming he's swinging to contact the fastball deep on the outer edge. You can see doing this doesn't fit his observed contact points. If I increase the slope (second image), it does. But!
November 16, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Ok thinking about this more. If I don't modify the attack_direction vs int_y slope I get this bat path assuming he's swinging to contact the fastball deep on the outer edge. You can see doing this doesn't fit his observed contact points. If I increase the slope (second image), it does. But!
The thing about putting in the effort to make that streamlit app is this exists, which will show much of the same info just doesn't include a good way to visualize the time domain.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/...
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/...
November 15, 2025 at 7:39 PM
The thing about putting in the effort to make that streamlit app is this exists, which will show much of the same info just doesn't include a good way to visualize the time domain.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/...
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/...
You have to input a batter's MLBID to run it, which you can grab from their statcast url. One day I might turn it into a streamlit app, but one day I might not so it may just remain clunky who's to say
November 15, 2025 at 7:34 PM
You have to input a batter's MLBID to run it, which you can grab from their statcast url. One day I might turn it into a streamlit app, but one day I might not so it may just remain clunky who's to say
Decided to make the code for generating these plots public. Download the stuff here to run it in a jupyter notebook. You can input any batter from 2025. Count options are "other", "full", "batter_ahead", and "two_strikes"
github.com/sbrown70/bar...
github.com/sbrown70/bar...
November 15, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Decided to make the code for generating these plots public. Download the stuff here to run it in a jupyter notebook. You can input any batter from 2025. Count options are "other", "full", "batter_ahead", and "two_strikes"
github.com/sbrown70/bar...
github.com/sbrown70/bar...
We can add scatter points of his intercept points on BIP greater than 105 mph and adjust the attack direction slope to follow the outer edge of the point cloud. Need to ponder how to interpret what info we can pull from a point being inside the arc
November 14, 2025 at 3:27 AM
We can add scatter points of his intercept points on BIP greater than 105 mph and adjust the attack direction slope to follow the outer edge of the point cloud. Need to ponder how to interpret what info we can pull from a point being inside the arc
Ok well lets start by fixing the slope of attack direction as a function of intercept point, that gives us a pretty different takeaway.
November 14, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Ok well lets start by fixing the slope of attack direction as a function of intercept point, that gives us a pretty different takeaway.
Some different looking swings
November 14, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Some different looking swings
Today's bat path work.
November 14, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Today's bat path work.
Same data but in plot form for 0-0 counts after fitting a GAM on Percentage of Predicted Bat Speed for each of the y variables. Red lines are GAM fit on league data weighted by number of swings at that percentage, gray lines are individual unweighted GAMs for 100 random batters.
November 12, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Same data but in plot form for 0-0 counts after fitting a GAM on Percentage of Predicted Bat Speed for each of the y variables. Red lines are GAM fit on league data weighted by number of swings at that percentage, gray lines are individual unweighted GAMs for 100 random batters.
The additional whiffs that come from swinging hard appear to be worth the increase in hard contact, but it's tough to tell if that's an artifact of hard swings disproportionately being swings where the batter correctly guessed pitch type.
November 12, 2025 at 4:16 PM
The additional whiffs that come from swinging hard appear to be worth the increase in hard contact, but it's tough to tell if that's an artifact of hard swings disproportionately being swings where the batter correctly guessed pitch type.
this is horribly unimaginative
www.caranddriver.com/photos/g6934...
www.caranddriver.com/photos/g6934...
November 11, 2025 at 8:11 PM
this is horribly unimaginative
www.caranddriver.com/photos/g6934...
www.caranddriver.com/photos/g6934...
Class is in session
November 9, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Class is in session
Post you from a different era (mid ‘90s)
November 7, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Post you from a different era (mid ‘90s)