Sophie Hale
@sophiehale.bsky.social
Principal Economist leading on trade and intergenerational fairness at the Resolution Foundation.
The idea that the UK benefits is plausible — but unlikely, for two reasons:
1. It likely underestimates US capacity and intent to onshore, given other active policies to pull investment home.
2. UK firms need to believe these tariff advantages are lasting — a risky bet.
1. It likely underestimates US capacity and intent to onshore, given other active policies to pull investment home.
2. UK firms need to believe these tariff advantages are lasting — a risky bet.
November 6, 2025 at 11:54 AM
The idea that the UK benefits is plausible — but unlikely, for two reasons:
1. It likely underestimates US capacity and intent to onshore, given other active policies to pull investment home.
2. UK firms need to believe these tariff advantages are lasting — a risky bet.
1. It likely underestimates US capacity and intent to onshore, given other active policies to pull investment home.
2. UK firms need to believe these tariff advantages are lasting — a risky bet.
But the economy growing is not consistent with other estimates e.g. OBR suggests medium term GDP fall of 0.3 per cent which can only be partly offset by trade diversion (albeit on a slightly higher tariff input assumption).
obr.uk/economic-and...
obr.uk/economic-and...
EFOs - Office for Budget Responsibility
obr.uk
November 6, 2025 at 11:54 AM
But the economy growing is not consistent with other estimates e.g. OBR suggests medium term GDP fall of 0.3 per cent which can only be partly offset by trade diversion (albeit on a slightly higher tariff input assumption).
obr.uk/economic-and...
obr.uk/economic-and...
The UK’s relative strength makes sense: UK is heavy on unaffected services trade and lower goods barriers mean possible gains from trade shifts — cheaper imports once bound for the US and an export edge into the US market.
November 6, 2025 at 11:54 AM
The UK’s relative strength makes sense: UK is heavy on unaffected services trade and lower goods barriers mean possible gains from trade shifts — cheaper imports once bound for the US and an export edge into the US market.
As shown below, the UK has ended up with relatively low tariffs - our starting point was ok (we don't run a big goods deficit with the US) and the UK-US deal took off some of the sector-specific sharp edges. Only Canada faces lower tariffs by October.
November 6, 2025 at 11:54 AM
As shown below, the UK has ended up with relatively low tariffs - our starting point was ok (we don't run a big goods deficit with the US) and the UK-US deal took off some of the sector-specific sharp edges. Only Canada faces lower tariffs by October.
In 2018-20, median wealth among Britons in their 60s was 55 per cent higher in real terms than among those of the same age in 2006-08, whereas median wealth for those in their 30s was a third (34 per cent) lower.
November 4, 2025 at 8:45 PM
In 2018-20, median wealth among Britons in their 60s was 55 per cent higher in real terms than among those of the same age in 2006-08, whereas median wealth for those in their 30s was a third (34 per cent) lower.
This aligns with what my colleague
@simonpittaway
found in the UK, where wealth has also become much more unequally shared between young and old.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
@simonpittaway
found in the UK, where wealth has also become much more unequally shared between young and old.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Inequality control • Resolution Foundation
The turbulent 2020s have had profound implications for household wealth in Britain: lockdowns pushed saving to unprecedented highs, asset prices surged and then tanked, and high inflation eroded the r...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 4, 2025 at 8:45 PM
This aligns with what my colleague
@simonpittaway
found in the UK, where wealth has also become much more unequally shared between young and old.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
@simonpittaway
found in the UK, where wealth has also become much more unequally shared between young and old.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
On the other hand, the average net worth of households under 35 slipped from 21 percent of the overall mean in 1983 to 17 percent in 2007 to 16 percent in 2022.
November 4, 2025 at 8:45 PM
On the other hand, the average net worth of households under 35 slipped from 21 percent of the overall mean in 1983 to 17 percent in 2007 to 16 percent in 2022.
So trade generally looking weak in August, with goods exports falling and services growth remaining weaker than last year.
October 16, 2025 at 11:41 AM
So trade generally looking weak in August, with goods exports falling and services growth remaining weaker than last year.
There has been a worryingly flatlining of the service sector output over the past couple of months. While services output covers a lot of untradeable sectors, weaker export growth is a particularly worrying signal of a struggling service sector.
bsky.app/profile/jame...
bsky.app/profile/jame...
If we look under the hood, the big concern is the flatlining of the service sector over the past couple of months that looks particularly worrying. Other sectors have been more erratic but the recent tendency has been for weaker manufacturing growth give global trade tensions.
October 16, 2025 at 11:41 AM
There has been a worryingly flatlining of the service sector output over the past couple of months. While services output covers a lot of untradeable sectors, weaker export growth is a particularly worrying signal of a struggling service sector.
bsky.app/profile/jame...
bsky.app/profile/jame...
By comparison, services exports growth has been much stronger since the start of 2024. However, 3m on 3m growth has also been tailing off since June, with growth in 2025 looking set to significantly underperform 2024.
October 16, 2025 at 11:41 AM
By comparison, services exports growth has been much stronger since the start of 2024. However, 3m on 3m growth has also been tailing off since June, with growth in 2025 looking set to significantly underperform 2024.
3m on 3m goods export growth has dried up in recent months after a strong start to the year - related to US tariff policy and rising global trade tensions. But it is clear goods exports growth has been generally weak across the last couple of year.
October 16, 2025 at 11:41 AM
3m on 3m goods export growth has dried up in recent months after a strong start to the year - related to US tariff policy and rising global trade tensions. But it is clear goods exports growth has been generally weak across the last couple of year.
The value of goods exports fell by 3.3% in August, driven by a substantial monthly fall in EU goods exports (down 5.3%). The value of imports was flat, with growth in EU imports matched by the fall in non-EU imports. But services trade, both exports and imports, grew in August.
October 16, 2025 at 11:41 AM
The value of goods exports fell by 3.3% in August, driven by a substantial monthly fall in EU goods exports (down 5.3%). The value of imports was flat, with growth in EU imports matched by the fall in non-EU imports. But services trade, both exports and imports, grew in August.
So overall July trade looked steady, but the big picture: already weak goods exports + high trade uncertainty = trouble. The extent to which the US deal can alleviate this is still to be seen.
September 12, 2025 at 7:39 AM
So overall July trade looked steady, but the big picture: already weak goods exports + high trade uncertainty = trouble. The extent to which the US deal can alleviate this is still to be seen.
But what is more worrying is that the weak goods performance this year is nothing new. UK goods exports have continued to considerably underperform the rest of the G7. With the UKs overall export performance buoyed by a much stronger services performance.
September 12, 2025 at 7:39 AM
But what is more worrying is that the weak goods performance this year is nothing new. UK goods exports have continued to considerably underperform the rest of the G7. With the UKs overall export performance buoyed by a much stronger services performance.
The weakness of exports to the US was felt across manufacturing sectors - with both chemicals and cars exports down more than 20% on this period last year.
September 12, 2025 at 7:39 AM
The weakness of exports to the US was felt across manufacturing sectors - with both chemicals and cars exports down more than 20% on this period last year.
But the impact of US tariffs seems to be materialising. UK exports to the US since April (when new tariffs were initially applied to UK goods) were 14% below their level over the same period last year (compared to just 4% lower with the world).
September 12, 2025 at 7:39 AM
But the impact of US tariffs seems to be materialising. UK exports to the US since April (when new tariffs were initially applied to UK goods) were 14% below their level over the same period last year (compared to just 4% lower with the world).
Global trade uncertainty has been unprecedently high, due to the tariff announcement coming from the US. And so a disruption to goods trade is unsurprising. Of course, for the UK, high trade uncertainty is nothing new, with years of high uncertainty following the EU referendum.
September 12, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Global trade uncertainty has been unprecedently high, due to the tariff announcement coming from the US. And so a disruption to goods trade is unsurprising. Of course, for the UK, high trade uncertainty is nothing new, with years of high uncertainty following the EU referendum.
But taking a step back to look at year to date where does this leave us? Despite the growth in July, goods export volumes are down 1% on last year. Meanwhile services export volumes have grown 5.5% and imports by 8.2%.
September 12, 2025 at 7:39 AM
But taking a step back to look at year to date where does this leave us? Despite the growth in July, goods export volumes are down 1% on last year. Meanwhile services export volumes have grown 5.5% and imports by 8.2%.
Starting with monthly trade volumes, total goods (excluding precious metals) exports grew by 5.2%, driven mainly by non-EU growth. Goods imports also grew by 4.1%. Services trade on the other hand was weak in July, with exports falling by 0.4% on the June.
September 12, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Starting with monthly trade volumes, total goods (excluding precious metals) exports grew by 5.2%, driven mainly by non-EU growth. Goods imports also grew by 4.1%. Services trade on the other hand was weak in July, with exports falling by 0.4% on the June.