Sofia Baig
@sofiabaig.bsky.social
Economist at Morning Consult polling the people about the economy 🤓 opinions are my own
Following up on this, declines in consumer sentiment about the economy after inauguration came mostly from democrats and somewhat independents. Republicans sentiment shot up even higher
February 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Following up on this, declines in consumer sentiment about the economy after inauguration came mostly from democrats and somewhat independents. Republicans sentiment shot up even higher
Vibe shift? Consumer sentiment peaked in Trump’s first week but has been dropping down since then, mostly driven by dampened future expectations
February 4, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Vibe shift? Consumer sentiment peaked in Trump’s first week but has been dropping down since then, mostly driven by dampened future expectations
Biggest real sign I’ve seen that he’s going to back down on original broad based tariff plans
“The tariffs are just a bluff/negotiating position” is still in the money:
January 24, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Biggest real sign I’ve seen that he’s going to back down on original broad based tariff plans
The Fed has a communication problem with younger Americans: only 16% of GenZ adults and Millennials were aware the Fed had cut rates in December when we asked them (Dec. 19-22).
I think this is part of a larger media ecosystem problem wrt the economy lately
I think this is part of a larger media ecosystem problem wrt the economy lately
January 23, 2025 at 4:56 PM
The Fed has a communication problem with younger Americans: only 16% of GenZ adults and Millennials were aware the Fed had cut rates in December when we asked them (Dec. 19-22).
I think this is part of a larger media ecosystem problem wrt the economy lately
I think this is part of a larger media ecosystem problem wrt the economy lately
Morning Consult’s unemployment index continues to decline — updated through Jan 18
January 21, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Morning Consult’s unemployment index continues to decline — updated through Jan 18
First episode of Consumer Says for 2025 is out — we talk 2024 biggest losers and winners globally for consumer sentiment as well as a deeper dive into rising sentiment in the US
youtu.be/sl-TJdZLiGk
youtu.be/sl-TJdZLiGk
January 15, 2025 at 4:44 PM
First episode of Consumer Says for 2025 is out — we talk 2024 biggest losers and winners globally for consumer sentiment as well as a deeper dive into rising sentiment in the US
youtu.be/sl-TJdZLiGk
youtu.be/sl-TJdZLiGk
“Providing Republicans with specific information on the likely consumer cost of Trump’s tariff proposals actually backfired, increasing support for the tariffs relative to the control group.”
A very interesting survey and read from my colleague Sonnet: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/tru...
A very interesting survey and read from my colleague Sonnet: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/tru...
January 13, 2025 at 8:11 PM
“Providing Republicans with specific information on the likely consumer cost of Trump’s tariff proposals actually backfired, increasing support for the tariffs relative to the control group.”
A very interesting survey and read from my colleague Sonnet: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/tru...
A very interesting survey and read from my colleague Sonnet: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/tru...
Reposted by Sofia Baig
After today's strong job report, markets betting that chances of any additional rate cuts by May are <50%.
www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...
www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...
January 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
After today's strong job report, markets betting that chances of any additional rate cuts by May are <50%.
www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...
www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...
@kaylabruun.bsky.social called it in her memo yesterday: declines in Morning Consult’s Unemployment index "likely points to a potential downside surprise for December unemployment per the BLS but not a dramatic drop".
Urate did in fact surprise to the downside today at 4.1%
Urate did in fact surprise to the downside today at 4.1%
January 10, 2025 at 4:17 PM
@kaylabruun.bsky.social called it in her memo yesterday: declines in Morning Consult’s Unemployment index "likely points to a potential downside surprise for December unemployment per the BLS but not a dramatic drop".
Urate did in fact surprise to the downside today at 4.1%
Urate did in fact surprise to the downside today at 4.1%
Reposted by Sofia Baig
Our last Consumer Says ep of the year!! Tune in for @sofiabaig.bsky.social and me talking all about tariffs, Fed and INFLATION!
(...or if you prefer silence - see our accompanying newsletter!
read: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/con...
subscribe: pro.morningconsult.com/newsletters?...)
(...or if you prefer silence - see our accompanying newsletter!
read: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/con...
subscribe: pro.morningconsult.com/newsletters?...)
December 19, 2024 at 5:30 PM
Our last Consumer Says ep of the year!! Tune in for @sofiabaig.bsky.social and me talking all about tariffs, Fed and INFLATION!
(...or if you prefer silence - see our accompanying newsletter!
read: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/con...
subscribe: pro.morningconsult.com/newsletters?...)
(...or if you prefer silence - see our accompanying newsletter!
read: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/con...
subscribe: pro.morningconsult.com/newsletters?...)
Last Consumer Says podcast episode of 2024 with @kaylabruun.bsky.social and it’s all on what consumers think about tariffs + a mini Fed discussion at the end!
Check out the full episode here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4Rb...
Check out the full episode here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4Rb...
December 18, 2024 at 6:53 PM
Last Consumer Says podcast episode of 2024 with @kaylabruun.bsky.social and it’s all on what consumers think about tariffs + a mini Fed discussion at the end!
Check out the full episode here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4Rb...
Check out the full episode here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4Rb...
Latest episode of Consumer Says is out where @kaylabruun.bsky.social and I go over the top 4 headwinds and top 2.5 tailwinds facing the US economy now. Might be my favorite one we’ve done yet! m.youtube.com/watch?v=GF5d...
Consumer Says 12/4/24: The state of the U.S. economy heading into 2025
YouTube video by Morning Consult
m.youtube.com
December 4, 2024 at 5:14 PM
Latest episode of Consumer Says is out where @kaylabruun.bsky.social and I go over the top 4 headwinds and top 2.5 tailwinds facing the US economy now. Might be my favorite one we’ve done yet! m.youtube.com/watch?v=GF5d...
Most voters think foreign companies or foreign governments pay for tariffs
November 26, 2024 at 6:09 PM
Most voters think foreign companies or foreign governments pay for tariffs
Reposted by Sofia Baig
Our team writes A LOT about differing dynamics/econ experiences across income groups. It's mostly been bad news for lower earners...
But from late summer thru mid-Nov, we are finally seeing improvement in consumer health scores - with <$50k group showing the most progress!
But from late summer thru mid-Nov, we are finally seeing improvement in consumer health scores - with <$50k group showing the most progress!
November 22, 2024 at 1:25 PM
Our team writes A LOT about differing dynamics/econ experiences across income groups. It's mostly been bad news for lower earners...
But from late summer thru mid-Nov, we are finally seeing improvement in consumer health scores - with <$50k group showing the most progress!
But from late summer thru mid-Nov, we are finally seeing improvement in consumer health scores - with <$50k group showing the most progress!
Reposted by Sofia Baig
Nice catch on updates to employment data by @jc-econ.bsky.social. Suggests productivity growth higher & slowdown in hiring well underway. Likely changes in the pace of new biz birth and deaths - tends to happen at inflection points.
Interest-rate sensitive sectors hurting most.
Interest-rate sensitive sectors hurting most.
Interesting Q2 update from the QCEW suggesting that payrolls now overstates hiring by an avg 100k+ over the past 12m? Does this suggest that the breakeven pace of hiring is already slowing given the UR hasn't risen by more?
November 21, 2024 at 4:06 PM
Nice catch on updates to employment data by @jc-econ.bsky.social. Suggests productivity growth higher & slowdown in hiring well underway. Likely changes in the pace of new biz birth and deaths - tends to happen at inflection points.
Interest-rate sensitive sectors hurting most.
Interest-rate sensitive sectors hurting most.
Reposted by Sofia Baig
The Walmart/Target earnings contrast got me curious....so I took a look at how our brand-specific Consumer Health Index (CHI) scores shifted in Q3.
Turns out there were some conflicting demand patterns among these retailers customers, foreshadowing their earnings outcomes!
Turns out there were some conflicting demand patterns among these retailers customers, foreshadowing their earnings outcomes!
November 20, 2024 at 5:06 PM
The Walmart/Target earnings contrast got me curious....so I took a look at how our brand-specific Consumer Health Index (CHI) scores shifted in Q3.
Turns out there were some conflicting demand patterns among these retailers customers, foreshadowing their earnings outcomes!
Turns out there were some conflicting demand patterns among these retailers customers, foreshadowing their earnings outcomes!
Retail expert Claire Tassin joined @kaylabruun.bsky.social and me to discuss consumer demand and holiday shopping trends for 2024. Check out the full episode here: m.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...
November 20, 2024 at 5:50 PM
Retail expert Claire Tassin joined @kaylabruun.bsky.social and me to discuss consumer demand and holiday shopping trends for 2024. Check out the full episode here: m.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...
Reposted by Sofia Baig
It's podcast day for
@sofiabaig.bsky.social
...me...and our VERY SPECIAL GUEST, retail expert
Claire Tassin!!
We chat about consumer demand in general and then dig deeper on 2024 holiday spending trends & Black Friday expectations!
Watch on Youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...
@sofiabaig.bsky.social
...me...and our VERY SPECIAL GUEST, retail expert
Claire Tassin!!
We chat about consumer demand in general and then dig deeper on 2024 holiday spending trends & Black Friday expectations!
Watch on Youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...
Consumer Says 11/20/24: What to expect this holiday season
YouTube video by Morning Consult
www.youtube.com
November 20, 2024 at 3:44 PM
It's podcast day for
@sofiabaig.bsky.social
...me...and our VERY SPECIAL GUEST, retail expert
Claire Tassin!!
We chat about consumer demand in general and then dig deeper on 2024 holiday spending trends & Black Friday expectations!
Watch on Youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...
@sofiabaig.bsky.social
...me...and our VERY SPECIAL GUEST, retail expert
Claire Tassin!!
We chat about consumer demand in general and then dig deeper on 2024 holiday spending trends & Black Friday expectations!
Watch on Youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...
Reposted by Sofia Baig
Update on Morning Consult's Consumer Health Index (CHI) - we are seeing some interesting movements as we approach peak holiday spending season!
Consumer demand appears to be picking up thru mid Nov (chart runs thru Nov. 16)--and it's not just driven by the post-election sentiment bump either...
Consumer demand appears to be picking up thru mid Nov (chart runs thru Nov. 16)--and it's not just driven by the post-election sentiment bump either...
November 20, 2024 at 3:58 PM
Update on Morning Consult's Consumer Health Index (CHI) - we are seeing some interesting movements as we approach peak holiday spending season!
Consumer demand appears to be picking up thru mid Nov (chart runs thru Nov. 16)--and it's not just driven by the post-election sentiment bump either...
Consumer demand appears to be picking up thru mid Nov (chart runs thru Nov. 16)--and it's not just driven by the post-election sentiment bump either...
Reposted by Sofia Baig
“.. Goldman’s chart is a good example. Based on their estimations, the terminal [Fed Funds] rate will be around 4-4.25% under a high tariff regime, a percentage point above current market expectations ..”
- FedWatch Advisors #FOMC
- FedWatch Advisors #FOMC
November 19, 2024 at 4:44 PM
“.. Goldman’s chart is a good example. Based on their estimations, the terminal [Fed Funds] rate will be around 4-4.25% under a high tariff regime, a percentage point above current market expectations ..”
- FedWatch Advisors #FOMC
- FedWatch Advisors #FOMC
Reposted by Sofia Baig
Cost of child care for one child can be more than rent in some US counties blog.dol.gov/2024/11/19/n...
NEW DATA: Childcare costs remain an almost prohibitive expense
We updated our National Database of Childcare Prices with data from 2019-2022 and found that U.S. families spend between 8.9% and 16.0% of their median income on full-day care for just one child.
blog.dol.gov
November 19, 2024 at 5:03 PM
Cost of child care for one child can be more than rent in some US counties blog.dol.gov/2024/11/19/n...
Is the comparison to the US government/economy to Argentina driving anyone else crazy? Or is this just a very particular pet peeve of mine. Argentina had way more government spending relative to GDP, ownership of companies in certain industries, currency controls, 100x US inflation, etc.
November 18, 2024 at 10:14 PM
Is the comparison to the US government/economy to Argentina driving anyone else crazy? Or is this just a very particular pet peeve of mine. Argentina had way more government spending relative to GDP, ownership of companies in certain industries, currency controls, 100x US inflation, etc.
Follow my coworker and podcast cohost @kaylabruun.bsky.social for more charts and updates from Morning Consult Economics!
Where @sofiabaig.bsky.social goes I will follow! And then probably post some econ charts :) Hi!
November 18, 2024 at 9:58 PM
Follow my coworker and podcast cohost @kaylabruun.bsky.social for more charts and updates from Morning Consult Economics!
Good news - Morning Consult’s unemployment index has been trending down ever since it peaked the second week of September. Updated through Nov 16
November 18, 2024 at 9:56 PM
Good news - Morning Consult’s unemployment index has been trending down ever since it peaked the second week of September. Updated through Nov 16
Inflation is the incumbent killer!
November 18, 2024 at 9:43 PM
Inflation is the incumbent killer!