Michael S. Pollard
@sociologian.bsky.social
Sociologist and Demographer at RAND. Research mostly on social connection, substance use (alcohol and cannabis), and migration, but with many tangents. Opinions = my own, RTs ≠ endorsements.
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iRep51wAAAAJ&hl=en
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iRep51wAAAAJ&hl=en
Pinned
13 months ago I refused to promise "no cats" on this account. Here, finally, is a shameless appeal to new followers: my cat in a box.
This new commentary over at the Council on Foreign Relations, based on work with my colleagues at RAND, highlights a few ways women in China have been impacted by the legacy of the One Child Policy and China's hukou (household registration) system.
www.cfr.org/blog/gendere...
www.cfr.org/blog/gendere...
Gendered Legacies of Control: How China’s Population Policies Reshaped Women’s Lives
Guest Contributors are Tahina Montoya, a defense and policy researcher at RAND, and Kelly Atkinson, a political scientist at RAND.
www.cfr.org
December 4, 2025 at 8:11 PM
This new commentary over at the Council on Foreign Relations, based on work with my colleagues at RAND, highlights a few ways women in China have been impacted by the legacy of the One Child Policy and China's hukou (household registration) system.
www.cfr.org/blog/gendere...
www.cfr.org/blog/gendere...
"Raccoons have adapted to living in urban areas to such an extent that they are now showing physical changes that resemble early signs of domestication...Their snouts have become shorter... smaller teeth, curlier tails, smaller brains and floppier ears."
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Drunk raccoon found passed out in Virginia liquor store
Store employee found masked bandit sleeping off a bender after invading booze store and tippling a tad too much
www.theguardian.com
December 3, 2025 at 6:20 PM
"Raccoons have adapted to living in urban areas to such an extent that they are now showing physical changes that resemble early signs of domestication...Their snouts have become shorter... smaller teeth, curlier tails, smaller brains and floppier ears."
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
One of the cool things in this report is an analysis of Chinese of public sentiment towards the 2- and 3-Child Policies. Changes in net sentiment align with two phases of pronatalist policy: introduction (people are optimistic) and implementation (people grow frustrated).
December 2, 2025 at 9:43 PM
One of the cool things in this report is an analysis of Chinese of public sentiment towards the 2- and 3-Child Policies. Changes in net sentiment align with two phases of pronatalist policy: introduction (people are optimistic) and implementation (people grow frustrated).
Reposted by Michael S. Pollard
A thread of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that look like record covers... because that's EXACTLY what the world needs
1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
November 28, 2025 at 11:36 AM
A thread of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that look like record covers... because that's EXACTLY what the world needs
1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
This whole thread is a wild ride. Get a cup of coffee and enjoy!
Baby names aren’t just personal choices; they reflect culture, geography, gender, identity, and as i've been investigating, politics too. I’ve been analyzing 50 years of U.S. baby naming to see how they map onto political polarization in the U.S.
Here’s what I found 🧵
Here’s what I found 🧵
November 24, 2025 at 7:54 PM
This whole thread is a wild ride. Get a cup of coffee and enjoy!
Reposted by Michael S. Pollard
New NIH guidance related to the shutdown. One of the changes is that "the percent of applications discussed in most meetings will be reduced to 30-35%, instead of the current ~50%."
NOT-OD-26-012: Updated Guidance on Reopening of NIH Extramural Activities Following the October 1, 2025 - Lapse in Appropriations
NIH Funding Opportunities and Notices in the NIH Guide for Grants and Contracts: Updated Guidance on Reopening of NIH Extramural Activities Following the October 1, 2025 - Lapse in Appropriations NOT-...
grants.nih.gov
November 24, 2025 at 7:18 PM
New NIH guidance related to the shutdown. One of the changes is that "the percent of applications discussed in most meetings will be reduced to 30-35%, instead of the current ~50%."
Reposted by Michael S. Pollard
The number of new international students in the U.S. has dropped by 17 percent. wapo.st/3M6uNvC
November 17, 2025 at 4:22 PM
The number of new international students in the U.S. has dropped by 17 percent. wapo.st/3M6uNvC
"Twenty years ago, the U.S. spent almost four times as much as China on research and development. But by 2023, China had almost closed the gap."
Research from ASA members Yu Xie and Junming Huang @princeton.edu illustrates how China is attracting scholars, especially in STEM fields, in the wake of the administration’s funding cuts and immigration restrictions in this @washingtonpost.com article.
Why Trump’s cuts to scientific research are a big win for China
China is attracting American scientific talent, especially in STEM fields, partly due to funding cuts and immigration restrictions under President Donald Trump.
bit.ly
November 17, 2025 at 6:00 PM
"Twenty years ago, the U.S. spent almost four times as much as China on research and development. But by 2023, China had almost closed the gap."
New research alert! In this report we evaluate the past decade of China's pronatalist policies, and how the U.S. can learn from their lack of impact. There are ways to help reduce unmet fertility intentions, rather than increase fertility intentions more broadly. 1/2
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Assessing China’s Efforts to Boost Fertility
China's government has implemented a range of pronatalist policies aimed at reversing fertility decline. Have these policies worked? What lessons might they offer for the United States?
www.rand.org
November 12, 2025 at 8:14 PM
New research alert! In this report we evaluate the past decade of China's pronatalist policies, and how the U.S. can learn from their lack of impact. There are ways to help reduce unmet fertility intentions, rather than increase fertility intentions more broadly. 1/2
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
It has been almost four months since I last posted my cat. Here she is inspecting a puzzle with 299 cat-shaped pieces, and one dog-shaped piece. Happy Friday!
November 7, 2025 at 6:15 PM
It has been almost four months since I last posted my cat. Here she is inspecting a puzzle with 299 cat-shaped pieces, and one dog-shaped piece. Happy Friday!
Apparently Rubik's Cube has created a nightmare stress baby with the Perfection game by creating "Rubik's Pulse Cube" -- you have 60 seconds to solve the cube before all the color drains out and it turns blank on all sides. I'm sweating just thinking about it.
November 5, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Apparently Rubik's Cube has created a nightmare stress baby with the Perfection game by creating "Rubik's Pulse Cube" -- you have 60 seconds to solve the cube before all the color drains out and it turns blank on all sides. I'm sweating just thinking about it.
Here's a quick 11 min chat about low birth rates and population panic. I'll pile on with the note that the United States is one of only eight countries in the world to not offer a paid federal maternity leave (along with Suriname, Papua New Guinea, and five South Pacific island nations).
On Here & Now @wbur.org @npr.org, ASA Member Karen Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social @uncpopcenter.bsky.social discussed politicians leveraging concern about low birth rates to justify policies that limit rights for women, non-Christians, people of color, & the LGBTQIA+ community.
The state of the pronatalist movement
The pronatalist movement, which claims to be rectifying what some of its members describe as the likely collapse of civilization due to population decline.
bit.ly
November 4, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Here's a quick 11 min chat about low birth rates and population panic. I'll pile on with the note that the United States is one of only eight countries in the world to not offer a paid federal maternity leave (along with Suriname, Papua New Guinea, and five South Pacific island nations).
Reposted by Michael S. Pollard
This graph never fails to be shocking: "The US has experienced the earliest and greatest slowdown in life expectancy improvements among higher-income countries, reported Eileen Crimmins. “We have horrible life expectancy—and it’s getting worse and worse”"
www.prb.org/resources/se...
www.prb.org/resources/se...
October 31, 2025 at 7:08 PM
This graph never fails to be shocking: "The US has experienced the earliest and greatest slowdown in life expectancy improvements among higher-income countries, reported Eileen Crimmins. “We have horrible life expectancy—and it’s getting worse and worse”"
www.prb.org/resources/se...
www.prb.org/resources/se...
I was happy to brief (with Jennifer Bouey) the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission staff last week on our recent introductory report on China's demographics and national security (broadly defined). Hopefully just the first in a series. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
What Do China's Demographic Trends Mean for Its Future?
China has one of the world's lowest fertility rates and is experiencing one of the fastest transitions to an aged society. The impending reduction in labor force size and increase in old age dependenc...
www.rand.org
October 28, 2025 at 9:05 PM
I was happy to brief (with Jennifer Bouey) the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission staff last week on our recent introductory report on China's demographics and national security (broadly defined). Hopefully just the first in a series. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Reposted by Michael S. Pollard
I’m dressing as the age period cohort problem for Halloween
October 22, 2025 at 6:00 PM
I’m dressing as the age period cohort problem for Halloween
"Dreams of teeth falling out occur across cultures...Research suggests that 40% of the adult population will have had one such dream over the course of their lives."
I've had these kind of dreams forever, but now I also have them about my cat's teeth.
www.theguardian.com/wellness/202...
I've had these kind of dreams forever, but now I also have them about my cat's teeth.
www.theguardian.com/wellness/202...
‘An unsolved mystery of science’: why do I dream about my teeth falling out?
Experts say such dreams of dental distress may relate to the processing of various emotions and experiences
www.theguardian.com
October 22, 2025 at 5:36 PM
"Dreams of teeth falling out occur across cultures...Research suggests that 40% of the adult population will have had one such dream over the course of their lives."
I've had these kind of dreams forever, but now I also have them about my cat's teeth.
www.theguardian.com/wellness/202...
I've had these kind of dreams forever, but now I also have them about my cat's teeth.
www.theguardian.com/wellness/202...
Reposted by Michael S. Pollard
You've probably heard that US fertility is "below replacement level." But what does that actually mean???
Demographers @lesja.bsky.social & others explain the link between birth rates & population growth in this new @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief. contemporaryfamilies.utah.edu/publications...
Demographers @lesja.bsky.social & others explain the link between birth rates & population growth in this new @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief. contemporaryfamilies.utah.edu/publications...
October 21, 2025 at 4:47 PM
You've probably heard that US fertility is "below replacement level." But what does that actually mean???
Demographers @lesja.bsky.social & others explain the link between birth rates & population growth in this new @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief. contemporaryfamilies.utah.edu/publications...
Demographers @lesja.bsky.social & others explain the link between birth rates & population growth in this new @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief. contemporaryfamilies.utah.edu/publications...
Reposted by Michael S. Pollard
Updating my projections: The last woman married in the USA will take place on Valentine's day in 2045.
October 14, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Updating my projections: The last woman married in the USA will take place on Valentine's day in 2045.
Gallup: in 2023 65% of Republicans said they drink alcohol – about the same as Democrats and independents. In 2025, that number has plunged a staggering 19 points to 46%. Democrats and independents also report drinking less, but each only by single digits. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Mocktails for Maga: why the US right is turning sober
Tucker Carlson says young people are more health-conscious than older generations. Does it explain why Republicans are drinking less?
www.theguardian.com
October 9, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Gallup: in 2023 65% of Republicans said they drink alcohol – about the same as Democrats and independents. In 2025, that number has plunged a staggering 19 points to 46%. Democrats and independents also report drinking less, but each only by single digits. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
And now for something completely different.
The first episode of Monty Python's Flying Circus featured a bicycle race of modernist painters who were painting while riding
October 5, 1969
October 5, 1969
October 6, 2025 at 7:39 PM
And now for something completely different.
As well as providing descriptive demographic trend data, the research team interviewed SMEs to identify & evaluate potential policy responses to mitigating impacts of the aging population: pro-natalist policies, immigration, the rural-urban divide, reliance on tech, and increasing retirement age.
My new report acts as an intro to China's current demographic challenges (rapid population aging, low fertility) and their implications for China's national security (military, economy, innovation, population well-being, and the CCP's self-perpetuation).
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
What Do China's Demographic Trends Mean for Its Future?
China has one of the world's lowest fertility rates and is experiencing one of the fastest transitions to an aged society. The impending reduction in labor force size and increase in old age dependenc...
www.rand.org
September 22, 2025 at 8:55 PM
As well as providing descriptive demographic trend data, the research team interviewed SMEs to identify & evaluate potential policy responses to mitigating impacts of the aging population: pro-natalist policies, immigration, the rural-urban divide, reliance on tech, and increasing retirement age.
Well, boo to this. Coffee can contribute to high cholesterol. “Unfiltered coffee, such as espresso, is high in diterpenes ... which interfere with proteins that transport LDL [bad] cholesterol out of the bloodstream.” Sorry if this is also news to you. health.yahoo.com/wellness/nut...
Seven ways your coffee habit could be ruining your health, from digestion to cholesterol
Whether it’s a flat white or a double-shot espresso, many of us can’t start the day without caffeine. A morning cup perks us up after a bad night’s sleep, fuels our workdays and workouts, and powers o...
health.yahoo.com
September 22, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Well, boo to this. Coffee can contribute to high cholesterol. “Unfiltered coffee, such as espresso, is high in diterpenes ... which interfere with proteins that transport LDL [bad] cholesterol out of the bloodstream.” Sorry if this is also news to you. health.yahoo.com/wellness/nut...
My new report acts as an intro to China's current demographic challenges (rapid population aging, low fertility) and their implications for China's national security (military, economy, innovation, population well-being, and the CCP's self-perpetuation).
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
What Do China's Demographic Trends Mean for Its Future?
China has one of the world's lowest fertility rates and is experiencing one of the fastest transitions to an aged society. The impending reduction in labor force size and increase in old age dependenc...
www.rand.org
September 22, 2025 at 4:33 PM
My new report acts as an intro to China's current demographic challenges (rapid population aging, low fertility) and their implications for China's national security (military, economy, innovation, population well-being, and the CCP's self-perpetuation).
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Reposted by Michael S. Pollard
JOB ALERT FOR #SOCIOLOGIST: Come work with me. We have FOUR Assistant Professor positions in the Sociology Department at the University of Calgary.
careers.ucalgary.ca/jobs/1672106...
careers.ucalgary.ca/jobs/1672106...
Assistant Professors - Sociology, Faculty of Arts in
Calgary,
AB,
...
Assistant Professors - Sociology, Faculty of Arts in
Calgary,
AB,
...
careers.ucalgary.ca
September 10, 2025 at 12:35 AM
JOB ALERT FOR #SOCIOLOGIST: Come work with me. We have FOUR Assistant Professor positions in the Sociology Department at the University of Calgary.
careers.ucalgary.ca/jobs/1672106...
careers.ucalgary.ca/jobs/1672106...
Reposted by Michael S. Pollard
Writing an algorithm to identify cluster populations for desirability ratings. A k-pop demand hunter.
September 12, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Writing an algorithm to identify cluster populations for desirability ratings. A k-pop demand hunter.