SoCal Weather Watcher
@socalwxwatcher.bsky.social
Western USA Weather, with a focus on Southern California.
Composite Radar as of 11:04AM 11/18/25 - A few scattered showers are developing across #SoCal Coastal and Valley locations as the Core of the Low moves directly overhead. This cold unstable air aloft will trigger scattered showers and Thunderstorms through this afternoon. #CAwx #LArain
November 18, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Composite Radar as of 4:44PM 11/17/25 - Rainfall associated with a Cold Front is pushing through LA and Orange Counties. Colder unstable air behind the front will arrive overnight and produce additional scattered showers and possible thunderstorms across #SoCal into tomorrow.
November 18, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Composite Radar as of 4:44PM 11/17/25 - Rainfall associated with a Cold Front is pushing through LA and Orange Counties. Colder unstable air behind the front will arrive overnight and produce additional scattered showers and possible thunderstorms across #SoCal into tomorrow.
*Preliminary* #SoCal Rainfall Totals for the Storm System last Thursday through Sunday - Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties definitely took the brunt of the system, with the Santa Ynez range and the higher elevations of Ventura County really cashing in.
November 18, 2025 at 12:24 AM
*Preliminary* #SoCal Rainfall Totals for the Storm System last Thursday through Sunday - Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties definitely took the brunt of the system, with the Santa Ynez range and the higher elevations of Ventura County really cashing in.
Composite Radar 11/15/25 12PM - A cutoff Low Pressure system continues its slow advance across #SoCal. Most of the rainfall has been light/moderate for most locations. Heavier bands of rain will be coming ashore into LA/OC Metro areas over the next few hours.
November 15, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Composite Radar 11/15/25 12PM - A cutoff Low Pressure system continues its slow advance across #SoCal. Most of the rainfall has been light/moderate for most locations. Heavier bands of rain will be coming ashore into LA/OC Metro areas over the next few hours.
- Some areas will see heavy Thunderstorms and excessive rainfall rates that will cause runoff issues, local street flooding, etc.
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Latest HRRR Simulated Radar depiction through 4PM Sunday - Heaviest rainfall will move through the region between late Tonight and Saturday afternoon.
#CAwx #LArain
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Latest HRRR Simulated Radar depiction through 4PM Sunday - Heaviest rainfall will move through the region between late Tonight and Saturday afternoon.
#CAwx #LArain
November 15, 2025 at 3:00 AM
1/3) A quick peek of some of this evening's latest High-Resolution Guidance for Rainfall amounts between now and Sunday PM for #SoCal:
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
November 15, 2025 at 3:00 AM
1/3) A quick peek of some of this evening's latest High-Resolution Guidance for Rainfall amounts between now and Sunday PM for #SoCal:
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
HRRR Model's Simulated Radar through 2pm Saturday - Rainfall will decrease this afternoon before the next surge of showers moves into #SoCal late tonight through tomorrow PM. Periods of heavy Rainfall and possible Thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day on Saturday. #CAwx #LArain #SoCalStorm
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 PM
HRRR Model's Simulated Radar through 2pm Saturday - Rainfall will decrease this afternoon before the next surge of showers moves into #SoCal late tonight through tomorrow PM. Periods of heavy Rainfall and possible Thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day on Saturday. #CAwx #LArain #SoCalStorm
The Hi Res NAM's Simulated Radar depiction through Saturday PM provides a good illustration of the multiple waves of moisture that will be fed into #SoCal, starting with the Cold Front Tonight/Friday AM, and then the Southerly surge of moisture on Saturday as the Cutoff Low approaches. #CAwx #LArain
November 13, 2025 at 7:36 PM
The Hi Res NAM's Simulated Radar depiction through Saturday PM provides a good illustration of the multiple waves of moisture that will be fed into #SoCal, starting with the Cold Front Tonight/Friday AM, and then the Southerly surge of moisture on Saturday as the Cutoff Low approaches. #CAwx #LArain
GOES West Satellite - A Low Pressure system centered about 200 miles West of Crescent City will drop South and cut off near #SoCal this weekend, spinning waves of moderate to heavy Rainfall into the region through this weekend. Rainfall will reach SLO/SB & Ventura tonight, and LA/OC by morning.
November 13, 2025 at 7:27 PM
GOES West Satellite - A Low Pressure system centered about 200 miles West of Crescent City will drop South and cut off near #SoCal this weekend, spinning waves of moderate to heavy Rainfall into the region through this weekend. Rainfall will reach SLO/SB & Ventura tonight, and LA/OC by morning.
From NWS Los Angeles:
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
November 12, 2025 at 11:50 PM
From NWS Los Angeles:
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
3/3) More than likely, Coastal areas will see something closer to what the Model Blend below suggests - 1.5" to 3.5" through Sunday PM, with Foothills seeing higher amounts. The rub being that this all depends on a cut-off system behaving as expected, which they notoriously don't like to do. #CAwx
November 12, 2025 at 8:02 PM
3/3) More than likely, Coastal areas will see something closer to what the Model Blend below suggests - 1.5" to 3.5" through Sunday PM, with Foothills seeing higher amounts. The rub being that this all depends on a cut-off system behaving as expected, which they notoriously don't like to do. #CAwx
2/3) Cut-off Lows have a tendency to behave in unexpected ways. The precise track of the Low, and how long it lingers around #SoCal will determine rainfall amounts. Some Model runs have spit out some impressive totals for Fri-Sun, with the GFS painting big totals for Ventura and SB Counties...
November 12, 2025 at 8:02 PM
2/3) Cut-off Lows have a tendency to behave in unexpected ways. The precise track of the Low, and how long it lingers around #SoCal will determine rainfall amounts. Some Model runs have spit out some impressive totals for Fri-Sun, with the GFS painting big totals for Ventura and SB Counties...
1/3) Model Guidance tools continue to disagree on details, but they do agree that #SoCal will see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall between late Thursday night and Sunday as the system slows down, cuts off and stalls near the area before moving East, with another storm on its heels for Monday...
November 12, 2025 at 8:02 PM
1/3) Model Guidance tools continue to disagree on details, but they do agree that #SoCal will see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall between late Thursday night and Sunday as the system slows down, cuts off and stalls near the area before moving East, with another storm on its heels for Monday...
1/2) A peek at what the latest Guidance is suggesting for #SoCal rainfall totals Thurs-Friday. Generally 1"-2" for Coastal and Valley areas with greater amounts in the higher elevations. Snow levels will remain above 6,000ft, so not a big snow producer for Mtn Resorts.
November 10, 2025 at 7:13 PM
1/2) A peek at what the latest Guidance is suggesting for #SoCal rainfall totals Thurs-Friday. Generally 1"-2" for Coastal and Valley areas with greater amounts in the higher elevations. Snow levels will remain above 6,000ft, so not a big snow producer for Mtn Resorts.
After the big warmup through early next week for #SoCal, Model/Ensemble guidance continues to point to a colder, unsettled pattern developing late next week.
Will have a better idea of expected Rain totals and impacts by Monday as Deterministic Models converge on the details. #CAwx #AZwx
Will have a better idea of expected Rain totals and impacts by Monday as Deterministic Models converge on the details. #CAwx #AZwx
November 8, 2025 at 3:45 AM
#SoCal warms up this weekend into early next week as Santa Ana conditions set up & daytime temps flirt with the lower 90's by Monday. The heat will begin to moderate on Tuesday. A pattern change to cool unsettled weather with rain chances for late next week/next weekend is still on track. #CAwx
November 7, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Next week will likely see some big swings in the Weather across #SoCal. A Ridge will strengthen and warm temperatures into the 90's for some locations Sunday/Monday, followed by a Trough and cooler weather, with Ensembles continuing to signal a good chance for Rain/Mtn Snow late in the week. #CAwx
November 6, 2025 at 11:12 PM
The pattern change signaled in long-range Ensemble Guidance for mid-November is now being reflected in @NWSCPC 6-10 & 8-14 Day outlooks, with a transition to unsettled weather for #SoCal possible later next week. #CAwx #AZwx
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
November 5, 2025 at 12:46 AM
The pattern change signaled in long-range Ensemble Guidance for mid-November is now being reflected in @NWSCPC 6-10 & 8-14 Day outlooks, with a transition to unsettled weather for #SoCal possible later next week. #CAwx #AZwx
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov