SoCal Weather Watcher
@socalwxwatcher.bsky.social
Western USA Weather, with a focus on Southern California.
Composite Radar 11/15/25 12PM - A cutoff Low Pressure system continues its slow advance across #SoCal. Most of the rainfall has been light/moderate for most locations. Heavier bands of rain will be coming ashore into LA/OC Metro areas over the next few hours.
November 15, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Composite Radar 11/15/25 12PM - A cutoff Low Pressure system continues its slow advance across #SoCal. Most of the rainfall has been light/moderate for most locations. Heavier bands of rain will be coming ashore into LA/OC Metro areas over the next few hours.
1/3) A quick peek of some of this evening's latest High-Resolution Guidance for Rainfall amounts between now and Sunday PM for #SoCal:
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
November 15, 2025 at 3:00 AM
1/3) A quick peek of some of this evening's latest High-Resolution Guidance for Rainfall amounts between now and Sunday PM for #SoCal:
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher
Flood Advisory issued November 14 at 6:30PM PST until November 15 at 12:30AM PST by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
November 15, 2025 at 2:45 AM
Flood Advisory issued November 14 at 6:30PM PST until November 15 at 12:30AM PST by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
HRRR Model's Simulated Radar through 2pm Saturday - Rainfall will decrease this afternoon before the next surge of showers moves into #SoCal late tonight through tomorrow PM. Periods of heavy Rainfall and possible Thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day on Saturday. #CAwx #LArain #SoCalStorm
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 PM
HRRR Model's Simulated Radar through 2pm Saturday - Rainfall will decrease this afternoon before the next surge of showers moves into #SoCal late tonight through tomorrow PM. Periods of heavy Rainfall and possible Thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day on Saturday. #CAwx #LArain #SoCalStorm
Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher
One of the reasons why this weekend's storm system is looking so impressive is that the associated airmass will be among the moistest on record for November in SoCal, with record or near-record column water vapor and integrated vapor transport in some areas. #CAwx
November 14, 2025 at 7:50 PM
One of the reasons why this weekend's storm system is looking so impressive is that the associated airmass will be among the moistest on record for November in SoCal, with record or near-record column water vapor and integrated vapor transport in some areas. #CAwx
Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher
California weather PSA:
Fact: Major SoCal storm *is* likely this weekend, w/2-4 inches of rain & t-storms possible in LA (more in mtns) & notable flood/debris flow risk in some spots.
Context: Snapshots showing ~10 inches of rain are extreme outliers, & very unlikely!
Fact: Major SoCal storm *is* likely this weekend, w/2-4 inches of rain & t-storms possible in LA (more in mtns) & notable flood/debris flow risk in some spots.
Context: Snapshots showing ~10 inches of rain are extreme outliers, & very unlikely!
November 13, 2025 at 10:05 PM
California weather PSA:
Fact: Major SoCal storm *is* likely this weekend, w/2-4 inches of rain & t-storms possible in LA (more in mtns) & notable flood/debris flow risk in some spots.
Context: Snapshots showing ~10 inches of rain are extreme outliers, & very unlikely!
Fact: Major SoCal storm *is* likely this weekend, w/2-4 inches of rain & t-storms possible in LA (more in mtns) & notable flood/debris flow risk in some spots.
Context: Snapshots showing ~10 inches of rain are extreme outliers, & very unlikely!
The Hi Res NAM's Simulated Radar depiction through Saturday PM provides a good illustration of the multiple waves of moisture that will be fed into #SoCal, starting with the Cold Front Tonight/Friday AM, and then the Southerly surge of moisture on Saturday as the Cutoff Low approaches. #CAwx #LArain
November 13, 2025 at 7:36 PM
The Hi Res NAM's Simulated Radar depiction through Saturday PM provides a good illustration of the multiple waves of moisture that will be fed into #SoCal, starting with the Cold Front Tonight/Friday AM, and then the Southerly surge of moisture on Saturday as the Cutoff Low approaches. #CAwx #LArain
GOES West Satellite - A Low Pressure system centered about 200 miles West of Crescent City will drop South and cut off near #SoCal this weekend, spinning waves of moderate to heavy Rainfall into the region through this weekend. Rainfall will reach SLO/SB & Ventura tonight, and LA/OC by morning.
November 13, 2025 at 7:27 PM
GOES West Satellite - A Low Pressure system centered about 200 miles West of Crescent City will drop South and cut off near #SoCal this weekend, spinning waves of moderate to heavy Rainfall into the region through this weekend. Rainfall will reach SLO/SB & Ventura tonight, and LA/OC by morning.
From NWS Los Angeles:
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
November 12, 2025 at 11:50 PM
From NWS Los Angeles:
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
1/3) Model Guidance tools continue to disagree on details, but they do agree that #SoCal will see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall between late Thursday night and Sunday as the system slows down, cuts off and stalls near the area before moving East, with another storm on its heels for Monday...
November 12, 2025 at 8:02 PM
1/3) Model Guidance tools continue to disagree on details, but they do agree that #SoCal will see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall between late Thursday night and Sunday as the system slows down, cuts off and stalls near the area before moving East, with another storm on its heels for Monday...
1/2) A peek at what the latest Guidance is suggesting for #SoCal rainfall totals Thurs-Friday. Generally 1"-2" for Coastal and Valley areas with greater amounts in the higher elevations. Snow levels will remain above 6,000ft, so not a big snow producer for Mtn Resorts.
November 10, 2025 at 7:13 PM
1/2) A peek at what the latest Guidance is suggesting for #SoCal rainfall totals Thurs-Friday. Generally 1"-2" for Coastal and Valley areas with greater amounts in the higher elevations. Snow levels will remain above 6,000ft, so not a big snow producer for Mtn Resorts.
After the big warmup through early next week for #SoCal, Model/Ensemble guidance continues to point to a colder, unsettled pattern developing late next week.
Will have a better idea of expected Rain totals and impacts by Monday as Deterministic Models converge on the details. #CAwx #AZwx
Will have a better idea of expected Rain totals and impacts by Monday as Deterministic Models converge on the details. #CAwx #AZwx
November 8, 2025 at 3:45 AM
#SoCal warms up this weekend into early next week as Santa Ana conditions set up & daytime temps flirt with the lower 90's by Monday. The heat will begin to moderate on Tuesday. A pattern change to cool unsettled weather with rain chances for late next week/next weekend is still on track. #CAwx
November 7, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Next week will likely see some big swings in the Weather across #SoCal. A Ridge will strengthen and warm temperatures into the 90's for some locations Sunday/Monday, followed by a Trough and cooler weather, with Ensembles continuing to signal a good chance for Rain/Mtn Snow late in the week. #CAwx
November 6, 2025 at 11:12 PM
The pattern change signaled in long-range Ensemble Guidance for mid-November is now being reflected in @NWSCPC 6-10 & 8-14 Day outlooks, with a transition to unsettled weather for #SoCal possible later next week. #CAwx #AZwx
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
November 5, 2025 at 12:46 AM
The pattern change signaled in long-range Ensemble Guidance for mid-November is now being reflected in @NWSCPC 6-10 & 8-14 Day outlooks, with a transition to unsettled weather for #SoCal possible later next week. #CAwx #AZwx
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Our October heat will begin to subside after today, with temperatures getting back to seasonal norms by this weekend. Long range Guidance continues to suggest that the storm track will remain to the North of #SoCal through early November. (Euro EPS Ensemble shown).
October 29, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Our October heat will begin to subside after today, with temperatures getting back to seasonal norms by this weekend. Long range Guidance continues to suggest that the storm track will remain to the North of #SoCal through early November. (Euro EPS Ensemble shown).
Ensemble Guidance is advertising an extended period of ridging & warm/dry weather for the West Coast. A trough will bring rain to the Pacific NW and NorCal along with some cooling for #SoCal this weekend, followed by a West Coast Ridge building in early next week and lasting for several days. #CAwx
October 24, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Composite Radar as of 7:24PM 10/21/25 - A Cutoff Low Pressure System is producing some instability aloft across portions of #SoCal. There is the possibility for sprinkles or a brief light shower tonight, and a chance for some Marine Layer Drizzle in Coastal & Metro Areas Wednesday Morning. #CAwx
October 22, 2025 at 2:39 AM
NAM Model Simulated IR Satellite through 48hrs - A Cutoff Low will bring cooling temperatures, Marine Layer Drizzle and possibly even a shower or two to #SoCal locations tomorrow night/Wednesday AM. The system will move East by Thursday and temperatures will rebound. #CAwx
October 21, 2025 at 12:18 AM