SoCal Weather Watcher
@socalwxwatcher.bsky.social
Western USA Weather, with a focus on Southern California.
Thanksgiving Week Outlook from the LA/Oxnard NWS Office:
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November 24, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Thanksgiving Week Outlook from the LA/Oxnard NWS Office:
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Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher
After this week, uncertainty reigns. A major stratospheric warming event and subsequent stratospheric polar vortex disruption *may* cause a pattern change-up in early Dec, but details (and even big picture) remain quite murky. In general, looks potentially active in California...
November 24, 2025 at 5:08 PM
After this week, uncertainty reigns. A major stratospheric warming event and subsequent stratospheric polar vortex disruption *may* cause a pattern change-up in early Dec, but details (and even big picture) remain quite murky. In general, looks potentially active in California...
Fair & Mild weather is expected across #SoCal on Thanksgiving Day. Right now it's looking like daytime temperatures will be in the 70's for Coastal/Valley Locations, upper 70's in the Low Deserts, 60's in the High Deserts and 50's at the Mountain Resorts. 🦃
November 22, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Fair & Mild weather is expected across #SoCal on Thanksgiving Day. Right now it's looking like daytime temperatures will be in the 70's for Coastal/Valley Locations, upper 70's in the Low Deserts, 60's in the High Deserts and 50's at the Mountain Resorts. 🦃
Composite Radar as of 2:44PM 11/20/25 - The leading edge of the Frontal System is pushing through LA/OC Metro areas. Showers will continue across #SoCal this evening as the center of the Low moves over the region, triggering potentially heavy scattered showers and Thunderstorms through Friday AM.
November 20, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Composite Radar as of 2:44PM 11/20/25 - The leading edge of the Frontal System is pushing through LA/OC Metro areas. Showers will continue across #SoCal this evening as the center of the Low moves over the region, triggering potentially heavy scattered showers and Thunderstorms through Friday AM.
HRRR Simulated Doppler Radar depiction through 10:00AM Saturday - The Cold Front will push through LA/OC this afternoon with mostly light/moderate Rain. Heavier Showers and Thunderstorms possible late tonight through Friday AM as the cold Low Pressure center moves over #SoCal.
November 20, 2025 at 8:02 PM
HRRR Simulated Doppler Radar depiction through 10:00AM Saturday - The Cold Front will push through LA/OC this afternoon with mostly light/moderate Rain. Heavier Showers and Thunderstorms possible late tonight through Friday AM as the cold Low Pressure center moves over #SoCal.
Composite Radar as of 11:04AM 11/18/25 - A few scattered showers are developing across #SoCal Coastal and Valley locations as the Core of the Low moves directly overhead. This cold unstable air aloft will trigger scattered showers and Thunderstorms through this afternoon. #CAwx #LArain
November 18, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Composite Radar as of 4:44PM 11/17/25 - Rainfall associated with a Cold Front is pushing through LA and Orange Counties. Colder unstable air behind the front will arrive overnight and produce additional scattered showers and possible thunderstorms across #SoCal into tomorrow.
November 18, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Composite Radar as of 4:44PM 11/17/25 - Rainfall associated with a Cold Front is pushing through LA and Orange Counties. Colder unstable air behind the front will arrive overnight and produce additional scattered showers and possible thunderstorms across #SoCal into tomorrow.
*Preliminary* #SoCal Rainfall Totals for the Storm System last Thursday through Sunday - Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties definitely took the brunt of the system, with the Santa Ynez range and the higher elevations of Ventura County really cashing in.
November 18, 2025 at 12:24 AM
*Preliminary* #SoCal Rainfall Totals for the Storm System last Thursday through Sunday - Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties definitely took the brunt of the system, with the Santa Ynez range and the higher elevations of Ventura County really cashing in.
Composite Radar 11/15/25 12PM - A cutoff Low Pressure system continues its slow advance across #SoCal. Most of the rainfall has been light/moderate for most locations. Heavier bands of rain will be coming ashore into LA/OC Metro areas over the next few hours.
November 15, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Composite Radar 11/15/25 12PM - A cutoff Low Pressure system continues its slow advance across #SoCal. Most of the rainfall has been light/moderate for most locations. Heavier bands of rain will be coming ashore into LA/OC Metro areas over the next few hours.
1/3) A quick peek of some of this evening's latest High-Resolution Guidance for Rainfall amounts between now and Sunday PM for #SoCal:
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
November 15, 2025 at 3:00 AM
1/3) A quick peek of some of this evening's latest High-Resolution Guidance for Rainfall amounts between now and Sunday PM for #SoCal:
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
- While not as crazy as what some of the Deterministic models have been putting out lately, these amounts will still be adding to whatever has already fallen.
Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher
Flood Advisory issued November 14 at 6:30PM PST until November 15 at 12:30AM PST by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
November 15, 2025 at 2:45 AM
Flood Advisory issued November 14 at 6:30PM PST until November 15 at 12:30AM PST by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
Additional Details Here.
Additional Details Here.
HRRR Model's Simulated Radar through 2pm Saturday - Rainfall will decrease this afternoon before the next surge of showers moves into #SoCal late tonight through tomorrow PM. Periods of heavy Rainfall and possible Thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day on Saturday. #CAwx #LArain #SoCalStorm
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 PM
HRRR Model's Simulated Radar through 2pm Saturday - Rainfall will decrease this afternoon before the next surge of showers moves into #SoCal late tonight through tomorrow PM. Periods of heavy Rainfall and possible Thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day on Saturday. #CAwx #LArain #SoCalStorm
Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher
One of the reasons why this weekend's storm system is looking so impressive is that the associated airmass will be among the moistest on record for November in SoCal, with record or near-record column water vapor and integrated vapor transport in some areas. #CAwx
November 14, 2025 at 7:50 PM
One of the reasons why this weekend's storm system is looking so impressive is that the associated airmass will be among the moistest on record for November in SoCal, with record or near-record column water vapor and integrated vapor transport in some areas. #CAwx
Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher
California weather PSA:
Fact: Major SoCal storm *is* likely this weekend, w/2-4 inches of rain & t-storms possible in LA (more in mtns) & notable flood/debris flow risk in some spots.
Context: Snapshots showing ~10 inches of rain are extreme outliers, & very unlikely!
Fact: Major SoCal storm *is* likely this weekend, w/2-4 inches of rain & t-storms possible in LA (more in mtns) & notable flood/debris flow risk in some spots.
Context: Snapshots showing ~10 inches of rain are extreme outliers, & very unlikely!
November 13, 2025 at 10:05 PM
California weather PSA:
Fact: Major SoCal storm *is* likely this weekend, w/2-4 inches of rain & t-storms possible in LA (more in mtns) & notable flood/debris flow risk in some spots.
Context: Snapshots showing ~10 inches of rain are extreme outliers, & very unlikely!
Fact: Major SoCal storm *is* likely this weekend, w/2-4 inches of rain & t-storms possible in LA (more in mtns) & notable flood/debris flow risk in some spots.
Context: Snapshots showing ~10 inches of rain are extreme outliers, & very unlikely!
The Hi Res NAM's Simulated Radar depiction through Saturday PM provides a good illustration of the multiple waves of moisture that will be fed into #SoCal, starting with the Cold Front Tonight/Friday AM, and then the Southerly surge of moisture on Saturday as the Cutoff Low approaches. #CAwx #LArain
November 13, 2025 at 7:36 PM
The Hi Res NAM's Simulated Radar depiction through Saturday PM provides a good illustration of the multiple waves of moisture that will be fed into #SoCal, starting with the Cold Front Tonight/Friday AM, and then the Southerly surge of moisture on Saturday as the Cutoff Low approaches. #CAwx #LArain
GOES West Satellite - A Low Pressure system centered about 200 miles West of Crescent City will drop South and cut off near #SoCal this weekend, spinning waves of moderate to heavy Rainfall into the region through this weekend. Rainfall will reach SLO/SB & Ventura tonight, and LA/OC by morning.
November 13, 2025 at 7:27 PM
GOES West Satellite - A Low Pressure system centered about 200 miles West of Crescent City will drop South and cut off near #SoCal this weekend, spinning waves of moderate to heavy Rainfall into the region through this weekend. Rainfall will reach SLO/SB & Ventura tonight, and LA/OC by morning.
From NWS Los Angeles:
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
November 12, 2025 at 11:50 PM
From NWS Los Angeles:
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
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Good afternoon, this is our lasted rain forecast. We have good confidence in Thur/Thur night w a front passage, but low confidence Fri-Sun. This is because a closed low brings rain chcs Fri-Sun & models struggle greatly with this pattern. Stay tuned, as things may change.
1/3) Model Guidance tools continue to disagree on details, but they do agree that #SoCal will see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall between late Thursday night and Sunday as the system slows down, cuts off and stalls near the area before moving East, with another storm on its heels for Monday...
November 12, 2025 at 8:02 PM
1/3) Model Guidance tools continue to disagree on details, but they do agree that #SoCal will see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall between late Thursday night and Sunday as the system slows down, cuts off and stalls near the area before moving East, with another storm on its heels for Monday...