Shaun Ratcliff
@shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Pollster, political scientist and applied data scientist, Accent Research. Sometimes lecturer, The University of Sydney.
One Nation also leads as the best party to handle immigration
Read more about the results here tinyurl.com/3tac6c3m
Read more about the results here tinyurl.com/3tac6c3m
November 17, 2025 at 12:19 AM
One Nation also leads as the best party to handle immigration
Read more about the results here tinyurl.com/3tac6c3m
Read more about the results here tinyurl.com/3tac6c3m
In this survey of 1,011 Australian voters (collected 7-13 Nov), Labor continues to dominate: leading on the two-party preferred vote, the preferred prime minister, and as the best party to deal with four of the six policy areas we asked about.
November 17, 2025 at 12:19 AM
In this survey of 1,011 Australian voters (collected 7-13 Nov), Labor continues to dominate: leading on the two-party preferred vote, the preferred prime minister, and as the best party to deal with four of the six policy areas we asked about.
The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out.
The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election
The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election
November 17, 2025 at 12:19 AM
The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out.
The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election
The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election
The 1st publication from the 2025 Cooperative Election survey was launched yesterday
prepared by the Macquarie Housing & Urban Research Centre, this report explores perceptions of housing affordability and perceived solutions
(thread)
prepared by the Macquarie Housing & Urban Research Centre, this report explores perceptions of housing affordability and perceived solutions
(thread)
October 23, 2025 at 1:23 AM
The 1st publication from the 2025 Cooperative Election survey was launched yesterday
prepared by the Macquarie Housing & Urban Research Centre, this report explores perceptions of housing affordability and perceived solutions
(thread)
prepared by the Macquarie Housing & Urban Research Centre, this report explores perceptions of housing affordability and perceived solutions
(thread)
If you're looking for something different in your election coverage tonight, join Simon Welsh and me on SBS
May 3, 2025 at 8:03 AM
If you're looking for something different in your election coverage tonight, join Simon Welsh and me on SBS
Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and
Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)”
This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground.
You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...
Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)”
This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground.
You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...
April 28, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and
Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)”
This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground.
You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...
Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)”
This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground.
You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...
Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are
You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30
You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30
April 21, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are
You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30
You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30
Somewhat offsetting these losses, the Coalition also looks competitive in Kooyong, Goldstein and Brisbane. However, the chances of winning back additional seats lost to the crossbench in 2022 looks slim at the moment.
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Somewhat offsetting these losses, the Coalition also looks competitive in Kooyong, Goldstein and Brisbane. However, the chances of winning back additional seats lost to the crossbench in 2022 looks slim at the moment.
Additionally, rural and regional Coalition seats look at risk to independents: Cowper, Monash and Calare
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Additionally, rural and regional Coalition seats look at risk to independents: Cowper, Monash and Calare
While the Coalition does look likely to win seats off Labor, it is also at risk of losing at least two in return: Sturt and Bass.
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
While the Coalition does look likely to win seats off Labor, it is also at risk of losing at least two in return: Sturt and Bass.
Similarly, Dobell, Robertson and Shortland on the Central Coast, and Paterson around Port Stephens are at risk of falling to the Coalition. As is Gilmore south of Sydney.
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Similarly, Dobell, Robertson and Shortland on the Central Coast, and Paterson around Port Stephens are at risk of falling to the Coalition. As is Gilmore south of Sydney.
There were still (at least as of late March) big swings to the Coalition predicted in seats around the outskirts of Melbourne: Hawke in the west, McEwen in the north, and Bruce in the south east. All of these are on a knife edge.
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
There were still (at least as of late March) big swings to the Coalition predicted in seats around the outskirts of Melbourne: Hawke in the west, McEwen in the north, and Bruce in the south east. All of these are on a knife edge.
but the Coalition is also bleeding of votes to minor parties and independents, particularly in rural areas
This is putting seats like Cowper, Calare and Monash at risk.
This is putting seats like Cowper, Calare and Monash at risk.
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
but the Coalition is also bleeding of votes to minor parties and independents, particularly in rural areas
This is putting seats like Cowper, Calare and Monash at risk.
This is putting seats like Cowper, Calare and Monash at risk.
Underneath the headlines numbers though, there are two main stories:
First: there is Coalition strength versus Labor on the metro fringe (although this appears to be in decline)
First: there is Coalition strength versus Labor on the metro fringe (although this appears to be in decline)
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Underneath the headlines numbers though, there are two main stories:
First: there is Coalition strength versus Labor on the metro fringe (although this appears to be in decline)
First: there is Coalition strength versus Labor on the metro fringe (although this appears to be in decline)
These are based on first preference headline results of: 36% for the Coalition, 33 for Labor, 12 for the Greens and 19 for Others.
Headline 2pp is 52% for Labor.
Headline 2pp is 52% for Labor.
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
These are based on first preference headline results of: 36% for the Coalition, 33 for Labor, 12 for the Greens and 19 for Others.
Headline 2pp is 52% for Labor.
Headline 2pp is 52% for Labor.
This resurgent support for Labor has stemmed the losses of late 2024. If an election was held when the fieldwork for this MRP was conducted, it is estimated Labor would win between 67 and 78 seats, and would have had a 96% chance of being the largest party in the House of Reps
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
This resurgent support for Labor has stemmed the losses of late 2024. If an election was held when the fieldwork for this MRP was conducted, it is estimated Labor would win between 67 and 78 seats, and would have had a 96% chance of being the largest party in the House of Reps
At the beginning of the 2025 federal election campaign, the latest Accent Research | RedBridge MRP estimates that while a minority government still looks to be the most likely outcome, Labor are the favourites, and are within reach of a parliamentary majority
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
At the beginning of the 2025 federal election campaign, the latest Accent Research | RedBridge MRP estimates that while a minority government still looks to be the most likely outcome, Labor are the favourites, and are within reach of a parliamentary majority
I've been really happy with how News has been willing to represent the uncertainty in sampling (which is the heart of opinion polling). This is the first time I am aware of a major Australian media outlet doing this
We're in the field now with more polling. Watch this space
We're in the field now with more polling. Watch this space
March 29, 2025 at 2:58 AM
I've been really happy with how News has been willing to represent the uncertainty in sampling (which is the heart of opinion polling). This is the first time I am aware of a major Australian media outlet doing this
We're in the field now with more polling. Watch this space
We're in the field now with more polling. Watch this space
interested in research on Australian politics, housing and inequality? Join us for a seminar on:
The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election
hosted by the University of Sydney and Macquarie, this Thursday
Details below, link in next post
The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election
hosted by the University of Sydney and Macquarie, this Thursday
Details below, link in next post
March 24, 2025 at 1:13 AM
interested in research on Australian politics, housing and inequality? Join us for a seminar on:
The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election
hosted by the University of Sydney and Macquarie, this Thursday
Details below, link in next post
The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election
hosted by the University of Sydney and Macquarie, this Thursday
Details below, link in next post
Ah, political advice from Joel ("$250000 a year is not wealthy") Fitzgibbon
If Labor agreed to this and backed a Coalition minority govt that pushed through mostly unpopular reforms (regardless of their merit) it would destroy the party
If Labor agreed to this and backed a Coalition minority govt that pushed through mostly unpopular reforms (regardless of their merit) it would destroy the party
March 10, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Ah, political advice from Joel ("$250000 a year is not wealthy") Fitzgibbon
If Labor agreed to this and backed a Coalition minority govt that pushed through mostly unpopular reforms (regardless of their merit) it would destroy the party
If Labor agreed to this and backed a Coalition minority govt that pushed through mostly unpopular reforms (regardless of their merit) it would destroy the party
What is polling saying about public opinion in the lead up for the federal election?
I joined Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on the Democracy Sausage podcast to answer these questions
(and plugged our latest tracking poll)
I joined Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on the Democracy Sausage podcast to answer these questions
(and plugged our latest tracking poll)
March 5, 2025 at 1:33 AM
What is polling saying about public opinion in the lead up for the federal election?
I joined Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on the Democracy Sausage podcast to answer these questions
(and plugged our latest tracking poll)
I joined Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on the Democracy Sausage podcast to answer these questions
(and plugged our latest tracking poll)
I don't have the primaries on me, but 2pp was 51 per cent for Labor, and 49 per cent of the Coalition. Here are the estimated swings since 2022 for Wave 2
March 4, 2025 at 10:09 PM
I don't have the primaries on me, but 2pp was 51 per cent for Labor, and 49 per cent of the Coalition. Here are the estimated swings since 2022 for Wave 2
three posts down in a thread (as well as there literally being error bars in the figure they reposted)
imagine being this confident, and this wrong. how embarrassing.
imagine being this confident, and this wrong. how embarrassing.
March 4, 2025 at 4:56 AM
three posts down in a thread (as well as there literally being error bars in the figure they reposted)
imagine being this confident, and this wrong. how embarrassing.
imagine being this confident, and this wrong. how embarrassing.
It should be noted that these results are a snapshot of public opinion at a point in time, not a prediction.
In particular, vote intention (especially among Labor voters) remains soft, which could add some volatility to support over the next few months.
In particular, vote intention (especially among Labor voters) remains soft, which could add some volatility to support over the next few months.
March 4, 2025 at 1:49 AM
It should be noted that these results are a snapshot of public opinion at a point in time, not a prediction.
In particular, vote intention (especially among Labor voters) remains soft, which could add some volatility to support over the next few months.
In particular, vote intention (especially among Labor voters) remains soft, which could add some volatility to support over the next few months.
They also show that in wave 2 of the track, a slightly larger share of voters believed Australia is heading in the right direction
March 4, 2025 at 1:49 AM
They also show that in wave 2 of the track, a slightly larger share of voters believed Australia is heading in the right direction