Shaun Ratcliff
LightNews LightNews
banner
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Shaun Ratcliff
@shaunratcliff.bsky.social
870 followers 150 following 180 posts
Pollster, political scientist and applied data scientist, Accent Research. Sometimes lecturer, The University of Sydney.
Posts Replies Media Videos
Pinned
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 17
At the beginning of the 2025 federal election campaign, the latest Accent Research | RedBridge MRP estimates that while a minority government still looks to be the most likely outcome, Labor are the favourites, and are within reach of a parliamentary majority
Predicted composition of the House of Representatives if an election were held now, based on estimates from MRP models. The first plot shows the number of seats each party (or group of parties and candidates) is expected to win comfortably (shaded darker) and that they are currently ahead in (shaded lighter). Those that are too close to call are shaded grey.
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out.

The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election
November 17, 2025 at 12:19 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out.

The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election
November 17, 2025 at 12:19 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
The 1st publication from the 2025 Cooperative Election survey was launched yesterday

prepared by the Macquarie Housing & Urban Research Centre, this report explores perceptions of housing affordability and perceived solutions

(thread)
October 23, 2025 at 1:23 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Join us on Wednesday for a free webinar hosted by Macquarie Uni where researchers will present the fascinating insights they have drawn from data collected by
Accent Research showing how voters' demographics, backgrounds and economic interests shape housing politics in Australia
October 20, 2025 at 12:26 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Shaun Wilson in the @theconversation.com using data from
Accent Research surveys to answer the question "Why has support for One Nation surged since the 2025 federal election?"

theconversation.com/why-has-supp...
Why has support for One Nation surged since the 2025 federal election?
With Labor re-elected with a thumping majority, voters at the conservative end of the Coalition are drifting away, spurred by anxieties about immigration.
theconversation.com
October 17, 2025 at 12:54 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Join us for a free webinar hosted by Macquarie University where researchers will present the fascinating insights they have drawn from data collected by Accent Research at the 2025 federal election showing how voters' demographics, backgrounds and economic interests shape housing politics
October 15, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
bspiesbutcher.bsky.social
How did #Housing shape the 2025 #auspol Election? Come to our free webinar.

We analyse new data to see how generation, tenure and voting shape housing politics

With @emmabaker.bsky.social @shaunratcliff.bsky.social and @everybodyshome.bsky.social Maiy Azize

events.humanitix.com/webinar-on-h...
Housing and the 2025 Federal Election: Between Crisis and Inertia
Join our free webinar for key insights into housing and politics—ideal for researchers, students, and policymakers tackling Australia's housing crisis.
events.humanitix.com
October 14, 2025 at 12:15 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
What happened at the 2025 election? When did the race turn in Labor's favour, and what do the results mean for Australian politics in the future?

Recently, I had the pleasure of joining Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social to answers these questions, and more

ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...
Democracy Sausage Episode: The pendulum swing
The numbers are in. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff joins Democracy Sausage to dissect the latest election data and what it means for the future of #auspol.What do the numbers tell us about when the shift to ...
ausi.anu.edu.au
July 14, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
anuausi.bsky.social
New ep of #DemocracySausage is out! 🎙️
@shaunratcliff.bsky.social joins @markgkenny.bsky.social & @marijataflaga.bsky.social to unpack the latest election numbers and what they reveal about the state of our democracy.

Don’t miss this one! #auspol 🎧 #AUListen bit.ly/4kwNcNQ.
Democracy Sausage Episode: The pendulum swing
The numbers are in. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff joins Democracy Sausage to dissect the latest election data and what it means for the future of #auspol.What do the numbers tell us about when the shift to ...
bit.ly
July 9, 2025 at 3:55 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
If you're looking for something different in your election coverage tonight, join Simon Welsh and me on SBS
May 3, 2025 at 8:03 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
I and some of my fellow political scientists and election watchers (including the always insightful @benraue.com) tried to help our American friends understand the 2025 Australian federal election by speaking to Victoria Kim at the New York Times

Read the story here:
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/02/w...
Australia Election 2025: Voters Focus on Cost-of-Living Concerns Amid Global Turmoil
Voters will decide who can turn Australia around from the throes of inflation and a housing crisis, and navigate relations with a volatile Washington.
www.nytimes.com
May 3, 2025 at 2:38 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
I spoke to @charischang.bsky.social at SBS News about some of the key seats to watch on election day

www.sbs.com.au/news/article...
How marginal is your electorate? The key seats to watch on election day
Find your electorate and whether it's a marginal seat by using SBS News' interactive map — you can also check whether it's one of the key seats experts are watching.
www.sbs.com.au
May 2, 2025 at 2:20 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
I'm a bit late posting this, but I was quoted in this very comprehensive piece about generational politics in the Age/SMH by Angus Holland

www.smh.com.au/national/gen...
How will the ’generation gap” affect this election?
Boomers, Millennials, Gen Z – who invented these terms? What do they mean? And how do they make a difference to politics?
www.smh.com.au
April 30, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and
Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)”

This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground.

You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...
April 28, 2025 at 4:42 AM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and
Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)”

This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground.

You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...
April 28, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
caseybriggs.com
This humble little triangle explains the big shift in how we vote over 50 years. My latest:

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04...
This triangle helps explain a titanic shift in how Australia votes
This triangle is going to help us explain how Australian politics has fundamentally changed over the past five decades.
www.abc.net.au
April 23, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are

You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30
April 21, 2025 at 10:04 PM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are

You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30
April 21, 2025 at 10:04 PM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
At the beginning of the 2025 federal election campaign, the latest Accent Research | RedBridge MRP estimates that while a minority government still looks to be the most likely outcome, Labor are the favourites, and are within reach of a parliamentary majority
Predicted composition of the House of Representatives if an election were held now, based on estimates from MRP models. The first plot shows the number of seats each party (or group of parties and candidates) is expected to win comfortably (shaded darker) and that they are currently ahead in (shaded lighter). Those that are too close to call are shaded grey.
April 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
I had the pleasure of talking to Marija and @markgkenny.bsky.social for the latest ep of Democracy Sausage, about our recent polling

We discussed how different groups are voting, the Coalition's weakness on economic policy & the political geography of the election

ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...
Democracy Sausage Episode: Testing the suburban strategy
In the first sausage sizzle of this federal election campaign, pollster Shaun Ratcliff gives Democracy Sausage an update on the state of the campaign. Is Labor bouncing back in the polls? How likely i...
ausi.anu.edu.au
April 2, 2025 at 11:44 PM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
I had the pleasure of talking to Marija and @markgkenny.bsky.social for the latest ep of Democracy Sausage, about our recent polling

We discussed how different groups are voting, the Coalition's weakness on economic policy & the political geography of the election

ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...
Democracy Sausage Episode: Testing the suburban strategy
In the first sausage sizzle of this federal election campaign, pollster Shaun Ratcliff gives Democracy Sausage an update on the state of the campaign. Is Labor bouncing back in the polls? How likely i...
ausi.anu.edu.au
April 2, 2025 at 11:44 PM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
I've been really happy with how News has been willing to represent the uncertainty in sampling (which is the heart of opinion polling). This is the first time I am aware of a major Australian media outlet doing this

We're in the field now with more polling. Watch this space
March 29, 2025 at 2:58 AM
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
bspiesbutcher.bsky.social
ICYMI: Tomorrow night I'll be discussing #housing and the #auspol election at Sydney uni - there'll be politics, data and time for discussion
March 25, 2025 at 11:23 PM
shaunratcliff.bsky.social
interested in research on Australian politics, housing and inequality? Join us for a seminar on:

The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election

hosted by the University of Sydney and Macquarie, this Thursday

Details below, link in next post
March 24, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
bspiesbutcher.bsky.social
Looking forward to discussing #housing, intergenerational equity and the upcoming #auspol #election on March 27 with the amazing Nicole Gurran and @shaunratcliff.bsky.social. Perfect first outing with Macquarie's Centre for Housing and Urban Research

events.humanitix.com/the-housing-...
The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election
The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election
events.humanitix.com
March 15, 2025 at 2:00 AM