Mark
@schmidtmaa.bsky.social
Infectious disease epidemiologist/PhD research investigator. Farmer. Jovial doomer. Interests: Public health, complex systems dynamics, Limits to Growth, small scale farming, food safety and preservation, and gallows humor. PacNW 🌲
This period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, as we watch the next administration take shape, is so surreal… like we’ve just run off the cliff and are are in suspended animation, waiting for gravity to send us plummeting.
a coyote holding a sign that says " that 's all folks "
Alt: a coyote holding a sign that says " that 's all folks " before he falls
media.tenor.com
December 1, 2024 at 5:48 PM
This period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, as we watch the next administration take shape, is so surreal… like we’ve just run off the cliff and are are in suspended animation, waiting for gravity to send us plummeting.
This is coming everywhere, whether we want it or not. The incoming administration has promised to tank the economy. Collapse now and avoid the rush. Spend the winter planning a garden if you have the ability.
‘You have to find your own recipe’: Dutch suburb where residents must grow food on at least half of their property
In the suburb of Oosterwold, a living experiment in urban agriculture, the 5,000 inhabitants find different creative ways to fulfil the unique stipulation
www.theguardian.com
November 28, 2024 at 6:13 PM
This is coming everywhere, whether we want it or not. The incoming administration has promised to tank the economy. Collapse now and avoid the rush. Spend the winter planning a garden if you have the ability.
Reposted by Mark
New post on some preliminary – but troubling – signals about the direction H5N1 might be taking: kucharski.substack.com/p/h5n1-influ...
H5N1 influenza: some troubling preliminary signals
A few data sources to keep an eye on
kucharski.substack.com
November 27, 2024 at 10:21 PM
New post on some preliminary – but troubling – signals about the direction H5N1 might be taking: kucharski.substack.com/p/h5n1-influ...
A ridiculously simple, systems model of the world (5 variables!!!) that was never intended to be predictive is probably the most telling history of the future there is, 52 years later. Everything else is just noise.
The limits to [exponential] growth was published in 1972.
We didn't quite follow the exponential increase in atmospheric CO₂, but got close!
We've already completely altered the global climate.
We didn't quite follow the exponential increase in atmospheric CO₂, but got close!
We've already completely altered the global climate.
November 24, 2024 at 6:30 PM
A ridiculously simple, systems model of the world (5 variables!!!) that was never intended to be predictive is probably the most telling history of the future there is, 52 years later. Everything else is just noise.
Corollary: half of all oil burned in the entirety of human history has been since 1997. For those on my feed familiar with pandemic growth rates (of which there are many), I invite you to consider this concept as it pertains to our energy situation.
November 23, 2024 at 8:54 PM
Corollary: half of all oil burned in the entirety of human history has been since 1997. For those on my feed familiar with pandemic growth rates (of which there are many), I invite you to consider this concept as it pertains to our energy situation.
Reposted by Mark
The richest men have grown tired from collecting giant piles of wealth, for they realized money can't buy people. For that they need power, lots of it.
November 18, 2024 at 8:44 PM
The richest men have grown tired from collecting giant piles of wealth, for they realized money can't buy people. For that they need power, lots of it.
Likely unpopular opinion: all that we’re up against can still be traced to the fact that conventional oil production peaked in 2005.
November 17, 2024 at 8:09 PM
Likely unpopular opinion: all that we’re up against can still be traced to the fact that conventional oil production peaked in 2005.
Reposted by Mark
The preliminary sequence from the H5N1 human case in British Columbia has been posted and it is not good news. The virus potentially has a quasispecies at HA residue 226 (H3 numbering). This is bad news because we know that mutations at residue 226 can increase binding to human receptors. 1/
November 16, 2024 at 3:19 PM
The preliminary sequence from the H5N1 human case in British Columbia has been posted and it is not good news. The virus potentially has a quasispecies at HA residue 226 (H3 numbering). This is bad news because we know that mutations at residue 226 can increase binding to human receptors. 1/
Just in time for the launch of my large respiratory illness study on Monday. 🫣
⚠️ BREAKING:
Oregon reports its first human case of H5N1 bird flu, according to the Oregon Health Authority.
The person was infected at a commercial poultry operation in Clackamas County.
55 cases have been reported nationwide this year.
Oregon reports its first human case of H5N1 bird flu, according to the Oregon Health Authority.
The person was infected at a commercial poultry operation in Clackamas County.
55 cases have been reported nationwide this year.
November 15, 2024 at 9:11 PM
Just in time for the launch of my large respiratory illness study on Monday. 🫣
"The captivation of your attention is an exertion of power over you. It requires your cooperation, and you can withhold that cooperation."
Thanks, very helpful. I also found this essay by Benjamin Wittes to be a useful read.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-...
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-...
The Situation: Staying Sane During the Screaming
Nothing prepares you for it, but habits are important.
www.lawfaremedia.org
November 15, 2024 at 5:58 PM
"The captivation of your attention is an exertion of power over you. It requires your cooperation, and you can withhold that cooperation."
Reposted by Mark
"If you allow yourself to become totally outraged every time there's something that under normal circumstances would be worth being totally outraged about, you'll never make it. Because these aren't normal circumstances. Slow down. Take a deep breath."
Very much agree with @dereklowe.bsky.social
Very much agree with @dereklowe.bsky.social
A bit of commentary about the RFK Jr.nomination, but more about dealing with this kind of story in general. Because we’re going to get a lot of them.
On RFK Jr. And What We're In For
www.science.org
November 15, 2024 at 5:24 PM
"If you allow yourself to become totally outraged every time there's something that under normal circumstances would be worth being totally outraged about, you'll never make it. Because these aren't normal circumstances. Slow down. Take a deep breath."
Very much agree with @dereklowe.bsky.social
Very much agree with @dereklowe.bsky.social
This moment feels to me like Jan-Feb 2020. With experience in pandemic planning, I saw what was coming - not just with viral epidemiology, but about the the ensuing societal disruption that was to be expected. I spent time warning incredulous colleagues, friends, and family that they were... (1/3)
November 15, 2024 at 4:11 PM
This moment feels to me like Jan-Feb 2020. With experience in pandemic planning, I saw what was coming - not just with viral epidemiology, but about the the ensuing societal disruption that was to be expected. I spent time warning incredulous colleagues, friends, and family that they were... (1/3)
Reposted by Mark
This is a perceptive analysis and practical guide to action under American authoritarianism.
Just in case I forgot to post Daniel Hunter's fantastic guide here. wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-t...
10 ways to be prepared and grounded now that Trump has won
The key to taking effective action if Trump wins is to avoid perpetuating his goals of fear, isolation, exhaustion and disorientation.
wagingnonviolence.org
November 15, 2024 at 3:31 PM
This is a perceptive analysis and practical guide to action under American authoritarianism.
Reposted by Mark
I don't think people understand just how bad things are about to get. We're sleepwalking into a full blown dictatorship. Normalcy bias and denial are keeping people deluded that it's not happening.
November 13, 2024 at 10:04 PM
I don't think people understand just how bad things are about to get. We're sleepwalking into a full blown dictatorship. Normalcy bias and denial are keeping people deluded that it's not happening.
Trump isn't so much "building his cabinet" as he is "filling his junk drawer".
November 14, 2024 at 9:48 PM
Trump isn't so much "building his cabinet" as he is "filling his junk drawer".
Reposted by Mark
Just so we're clear on where we are:
-The President: an authoritarian who attempted a coup
-A Secretary of Defense who defends war crimes
-A Attorney General credibly accused of sex crimes
-A Director of National Intelligence who defends Putin and Assad
-An HHS director who opposes vaccines
-The President: an authoritarian who attempted a coup
-A Secretary of Defense who defends war crimes
-A Attorney General credibly accused of sex crimes
-A Director of National Intelligence who defends Putin and Assad
-An HHS director who opposes vaccines
November 14, 2024 at 8:50 PM
Just so we're clear on where we are:
-The President: an authoritarian who attempted a coup
-A Secretary of Defense who defends war crimes
-A Attorney General credibly accused of sex crimes
-A Director of National Intelligence who defends Putin and Assad
-An HHS director who opposes vaccines
-The President: an authoritarian who attempted a coup
-A Secretary of Defense who defends war crimes
-A Attorney General credibly accused of sex crimes
-A Director of National Intelligence who defends Putin and Assad
-An HHS director who opposes vaccines
I've spent the past few days with science colleagues who've shared similar naive optimism: we've made it through the Bush years and recessions... scientific research may struggle in the near term, but we'll self-correct and make it through in the end... (1/3)
Naïve Optimism vs Reality: The True State of Our Planet and Energy Future | Art Berman
Last week, I spent time with oil CEOs who understood the complex environmental issues tied to energy but still believed everything would work out for humanity. Technology will fix most of the world’s ...
www.artberman.com
November 14, 2024 at 5:38 PM
I've spent the past few days with science colleagues who've shared similar naive optimism: we've made it through the Bush years and recessions... scientific research may struggle in the near term, but we'll self-correct and make it through in the end... (1/3)
👋 another newbie from the hellsite here. Looking forward to joining the great online communities of other epidemiologists, doomers, and doomer epidemiologists. #collapse
youtu.be/frAEmhqdLFs?...
youtu.be/frAEmhqdLFs?...
Tom Lehrer - We Will All Go Together When We Go
YouTube video by The Tom Lehrer Wisdom Channel
youtu.be
November 14, 2024 at 12:43 AM
👋 another newbie from the hellsite here. Looking forward to joining the great online communities of other epidemiologists, doomers, and doomer epidemiologists. #collapse
youtu.be/frAEmhqdLFs?...
youtu.be/frAEmhqdLFs?...