sausiuswx.bsky.social
@sausiuswx.bsky.social
Average weather enthusiast -
Main areas of interest: Tropical Cyclones and (European) severewx
Confusingly there appears to be a dual entry on the ATCF with both Tropical Depression Senyar and Tropical Depression 34W. Tho the JTWC website shows it as TD34W, implying that that is the official JTWC designation.
November 28, 2025 at 9:13 PM
The system has some very nice spin to it and much more organized convection to it then yesterday. Looking at UW-CIMSS analysis it is also apparent that in particular the mid to upper-level reflection of this system has become a lot more coherent compared to yesterday
November 26, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Technically, according to JTWC best track, this unnamed storm from 2017 had briefly crossed into the strait of Malacca and then made a landfall on the W side of Malaysia
November 26, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Historically NOAAs tropical cyclone explorer tool only lists two previous cyclones, that could be said to have formed within the strait of Malacca on its very northestern Extremity. Another two storms passed through or into the strait of Malacca at some point in their life.
November 25, 2025 at 8:24 PM
EIR suggests ERC (wobble) supported by M-PERC objective guide but I find recent radar and MW images inconclusive.
November 24, 2025 at 7:45 AM
The shear being convergent (vector angled towards the motion vector) would increase the effective strength further. The result is that as MW imagery shows, the internal structure is a lot more messy then yesterday. (3/3)
November 20, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Indeed, this is consistent with model box soundings showing northerlies above about the 450 mbar pressure level, with much weaker easterlies (the prevailing tropical tradewinds) below that. This results in a maximum shear of around 20 knots, which is likely convergent as well.
November 20, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Actually given the course resolution of GFS in particular and the small box area, i have to wonder how much averaging is actually being done but oh well.
November 16, 2025 at 2:50 PM