@sausiuswx.bsky.social
Average weather enthusiast -
Main areas of interest: Tropical Cyclones and (European) severewx
Main areas of interest: Tropical Cyclones and (European) severewx
OTD in 1991 Tropical Storm Zelda moved through the Marshall Islands and destroyed 60% of residences on Ebeye Island, leaving 6,000 people homless. Operations of Kwajalein Missile Range were also disrupted severely. Mainly just wanted to show off historical TC sat imagery ability
November 28, 2025 at 10:50 PM
OTD in 1991 Tropical Storm Zelda moved through the Marshall Islands and destroyed 60% of residences on Ebeye Island, leaving 6,000 people homless. Operations of Kwajalein Missile Range were also disrupted severely. Mainly just wanted to show off historical TC sat imagery ability
By now I am late to the party that Senyar has made history by crossing the Malay Peninsula from the west. JMA lists it as a TD at the moment but it is forecast to become a tropical storm again. JMA seems to treat it like a new system, so I assume they'll re-name it to Nokaen.
November 28, 2025 at 9:13 PM
By now I am late to the party that Senyar has made history by crossing the Malay Peninsula from the west. JMA lists it as a TD at the moment but it is forecast to become a tropical storm again. JMA seems to treat it like a new system, so I assume they'll re-name it to Nokaen.
Update: Koto is basically dead already😂
November 27, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Update: Koto is basically dead already😂
Typhoon Koto has suffered mightily at the hands of a joint assault from wind shear and dry air entrainment, compounded by decreased oceanic potential. CDO has mostly unravelled and Koto is likely to soon drop to TS status. Some re-strengthening is possible out 3-5 days.
November 27, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Typhoon Koto has suffered mightily at the hands of a joint assault from wind shear and dry air entrainment, compounded by decreased oceanic potential. CDO has mostly unravelled and Koto is likely to soon drop to TS status. Some re-strengthening is possible out 3-5 days.
Invest 96B near Sri Lanka has been put under Tropical Cyclone formation alert by JTWC and labelled as a depression by IMD. The next name is Ditwah. It's likely to develop into a tropical storm under marginally favourable conditions as it stays near the (S)E coast of India.
November 26, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Invest 96B near Sri Lanka has been put under Tropical Cyclone formation alert by JTWC and labelled as a depression by IMD. The next name is Ditwah. It's likely to develop into a tropical storm under marginally favourable conditions as it stays near the (S)E coast of India.
Tropical Storm Senyar looks very dishevelled right now. However JTWC still insists that it will survive to make an almost unprecedented landfall on the western coast Malaysia not far from Kuala Lumpur. Only one cyclone has ever made landfall (technically) on this side of Malaysia
November 26, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Tropical Storm Senyar looks very dishevelled right now. However JTWC still insists that it will survive to make an almost unprecedented landfall on the western coast Malaysia not far from Kuala Lumpur. Only one cyclone has ever made landfall (technically) on this side of Malaysia
Koto has steadily strengthened and has now become a typhoon according to both JMA and JTWC. Koto features a somehwat assymetrical CDO, possibly already due to shear. Core is likely partial via MW. The environment is expected to deterioate tomorrow, likely causing weakening.
November 26, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Koto has steadily strengthened and has now become a typhoon according to both JMA and JTWC. Koto features a somehwat assymetrical CDO, possibly already due to shear. Core is likely partial via MW. The environment is expected to deterioate tomorrow, likely causing weakening.
With tropical storm 04B (still TD by IMD standards) a rare tropical Cyclone has formed in the straight of Malacca and only within 5° of the Equator, which is remarkable in and of itself. It won't be long for this worl but its mere existence is quite meteorologically remarkable
November 25, 2025 at 8:24 PM
With tropical storm 04B (still TD by IMD standards) a rare tropical Cyclone has formed in the straight of Malacca and only within 5° of the Equator, which is remarkable in and of itself. It won't be long for this worl but its mere existence is quite meteorologically remarkable
JMA has now also designated the system currently crossing out of the Sulu Sea & named it Koto (VerbenaPH). Some strengthening is expected but shear should begin to become unfavourable tomorrow. Koto also likely to get into a steering col by Thursday & may not reach the coast of Vietnam by weeks end.
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
JMA has now also designated the system currently crossing out of the Sulu Sea & named it Koto (VerbenaPH). Some strengthening is expected but shear should begin to become unfavourable tomorrow. Koto also likely to get into a steering col by Thursday & may not reach the coast of Vietnam by weeks end.
The system moving through the Phillipines (VerbanaPH) has now been designated as a tropical depression by JTWC. While the system is forecast to become a brief typhoon in the South China sea, it is not expected to effect land as such and may not even reach land in the next 5 days. Next name: Koto
November 24, 2025 at 10:35 PM
The system moving through the Phillipines (VerbanaPH) has now been designated as a tropical depression by JTWC. While the system is forecast to become a brief typhoon in the South China sea, it is not expected to effect land as such and may not even reach land in the next 5 days. Next name: Koto
Cyclone Fina has actually almost reached Cat5 Aus Scale prior to her imminent landfall along the Kimberly coast of Australia. This was propably enabled by the unreasonably energetic waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. She seems to be on a weakening trend tho. Possibly due to an (attempted) ERC.
November 24, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Cyclone Fina has actually almost reached Cat5 Aus Scale prior to her imminent landfall along the Kimberly coast of Australia. This was propably enabled by the unreasonably energetic waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. She seems to be on a weakening trend tho. Possibly due to an (attempted) ERC.
Fina seems to have briefly attained major hurricane status in the last couple of hours (00 ATCF 100 kts), tho recently the sat presentation has deterioated again. This intensity is supported by a 2051 UTC SAR pass and the very decent MW structure captured at around the same time.
November 23, 2025 at 2:13 AM
Fina seems to have briefly attained major hurricane status in the last couple of hours (00 ATCF 100 kts), tho recently the sat presentation has deterioated again. This intensity is supported by a 2051 UTC SAR pass and the very decent MW structure captured at around the same time.
Fina is currently making her closest approach to the city of Darwin, where tropical storm conditions prevail. Agency estimates place her at C2 SSHWS/C3 Aus. Radar reveals only a partial inner core and Shear is present but agencies indicate short-term strengthening regardless.
November 22, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Fina is currently making her closest approach to the city of Darwin, where tropical storm conditions prevail. Agency estimates place her at C2 SSHWS/C3 Aus. Radar reveals only a partial inner core and Shear is present but agencies indicate short-term strengthening regardless.
Fina has thankfully at most stagnated over the last 24 hours or so. The reason for this can be quite clearly seen on water vapor RGB, which shows cloud elements moving towards the south underneath the cirrus, indicating winds from that direction, likely inducing unfavourable shear.
November 20, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Fina has thankfully at most stagnated over the last 24 hours or so. The reason for this can be quite clearly seen on water vapor RGB, which shows cloud elements moving towards the south underneath the cirrus, indicating winds from that direction, likely inducing unfavourable shear.
Tropical Cyclone Fina has continued to gradually strengthen over the last 24 hours and some satellite estiamtes place it at or near hurricane strength. Latest JTWC also has a much stronger peak (near C2) and now has a strong landfall in Darwin Sunday night. BOM is quite a bit more bearish tho.
November 20, 2025 at 12:16 AM
Tropical Cyclone Fina has continued to gradually strengthen over the last 24 hours and some satellite estiamtes place it at or near hurricane strength. Latest JTWC also has a much stronger peak (near C2) and now has a strong landfall in Darwin Sunday night. BOM is quite a bit more bearish tho.
BOM gave Tropical Cyclone 05S the name Fina earlier today (first named storm of the season). Thankfully while the storm has gradually intensified over the last day, model solutions have no converged on lower-end outcomes. Fina is also set to effect a relatively sparsely populated area.
November 18, 2025 at 11:35 PM
BOM gave Tropical Cyclone 05S the name Fina earlier today (first named storm of the season). Thankfully while the storm has gradually intensified over the last day, model solutions have no converged on lower-end outcomes. Fina is also set to effect a relatively sparsely populated area.
Wake up babe, a new Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert just dropped. Invest 97S looking rather healthy today, with nice rotating deep convection. Should form within the next day or two. After that environment should support strengthening to to C3 Aus scale. Too early for specifics
November 17, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Wake up babe, a new Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert just dropped. Invest 97S looking rather healthy today, with nice rotating deep convection. Should form within the next day or two. After that environment should support strengthening to to C3 Aus scale. Too early for specifics
Interesting situation in Lecce province and its vicinity on Tuesday gives me an excuse to showcase my box sounding generation capabilities. If storms initialize, they could cause severe wind gusts and large hail. A tornado or two can't be ruled out either if ICON/GFS verify.
November 16, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Interesting situation in Lecce province and its vicinity on Tuesday gives me an excuse to showcase my box sounding generation capabilities. If storms initialize, they could cause severe wind gusts and large hail. A tornado or two can't be ruled out either if ICON/GFS verify.
Still looks like there will be some decent tornado potential in southern Portugal Wednesday night and in particular Thursday morning to early afternoon. This particular sounding for the general Lisboa vicinity but large hodos and plenty of 3CAPE across much of southern Portugal.
November 11, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Still looks like there will be some decent tornado potential in southern Portugal Wednesday night and in particular Thursday morning to early afternoon. This particular sounding for the general Lisboa vicinity but large hodos and plenty of 3CAPE across much of southern Portugal.
A SSMIS 91 Ghz microwave image of Typhoon Fung-wong, taken a couple of hours before landfall, very clearly shows that Uwan was in the midst of an eyewall replacement when it made landfall in Luzon. This cycle was however of course never able to fully complete.
November 9, 2025 at 3:55 PM
A SSMIS 91 Ghz microwave image of Typhoon Fung-wong, taken a couple of hours before landfall, very clearly shows that Uwan was in the midst of an eyewall replacement when it made landfall in Luzon. This cycle was however of course never able to fully complete.
A couple of hours ago Typhoon Fung-wong (Uwan) made landfall in E Luzon on Baler bay as a Super Typhoon on the PAGASA scale. Winds where estimated by JTWC and PAGASA at 185 km/h (115 mph) 1 and 10 minute sustained respectively. Dangerous rain and wind continue across much of Luzon.
November 9, 2025 at 3:46 PM
A couple of hours ago Typhoon Fung-wong (Uwan) made landfall in E Luzon on Baler bay as a Super Typhoon on the PAGASA scale. Winds where estimated by JTWC and PAGASA at 185 km/h (115 mph) 1 and 10 minute sustained respectively. Dangerous rain and wind continue across much of Luzon.
Fung-wong has seemingly levelled off in intensity now. Lack of symmetry, eye refusing to clear. Still PAGASA has upgraded Uwan to the stage of "Super Typhoon" with 10 minute sustained winds of 185 km/h. in their #9 Bulletin. Life-threatening conditions are occuring in Catanduanes
November 9, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Fung-wong has seemingly levelled off in intensity now. Lack of symmetry, eye refusing to clear. Still PAGASA has upgraded Uwan to the stage of "Super Typhoon" with 10 minute sustained winds of 185 km/h. in their #9 Bulletin. Life-threatening conditions are occuring in Catanduanes
WOW! The latest SSMIS 183 Ghz microwave image of Fung-wong (Uwan) indicates a MW brightness temperatures of less then 110 Kelvin. Literally going off the scale. Just like with IR brightness temp, lower values mean more intense convection. Not sure if I have ever seen this before.
November 8, 2025 at 9:36 PM
WOW! The latest SSMIS 183 Ghz microwave image of Fung-wong (Uwan) indicates a MW brightness temperatures of less then 110 Kelvin. Literally going off the scale. Just like with IR brightness temp, lower values mean more intense convection. Not sure if I have ever seen this before.
According to estimates by both JTWC and the RSMC in Tokyo Typhoon Fung-wong (Uwan) has now reached (the equivelant of) Cat 3 SSWWS, with 1 and 10 minute sustained wind speeds of 205 km/h (125 mph) and 160 km/h (100 mph) respectively. Additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall.
November 8, 2025 at 7:33 PM
According to estimates by both JTWC and the RSMC in Tokyo Typhoon Fung-wong (Uwan) has now reached (the equivelant of) Cat 3 SSWWS, with 1 and 10 minute sustained wind speeds of 205 km/h (125 mph) and 160 km/h (100 mph) respectively. Additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall.
At its current trajectory the eyewall of Typhoon Uwan (int. name Fung-wong) and certainly the typhoon-force wind field looks likely the slam into the island of Catanduanes in like 6 hours time. Wind Signal No. 4 is in effect, interests there need to seek shelter ASAP.
November 8, 2025 at 5:35 PM
At its current trajectory the eyewall of Typhoon Uwan (int. name Fung-wong) and certainly the typhoon-force wind field looks likely the slam into the island of Catanduanes in like 6 hours time. Wind Signal No. 4 is in effect, interests there need to seek shelter ASAP.