Santiago Moncada
@santiagomoncada.bsky.social
One could also try to limit semiconductor exports to Russia so they can't build advance missiles as fast, but the only way to do it effectively would require secondary sanctions and there's no appetite for that
That’s true for both Ukraine and Europe: there aren’t enough interceptors to sustain a missile defense-centric strategy.
Instead, they must shift to a deterrence posture in the missile domain that relies on the threat of imposing unacceptable costs rather than denial.
7/7
Instead, they must shift to a deterrence posture in the missile domain that relies on the threat of imposing unacceptable costs rather than denial.
7/7
July 7, 2025 at 1:45 PM
One could also try to limit semiconductor exports to Russia so they can't build advance missiles as fast, but the only way to do it effectively would require secondary sanctions and there's no appetite for that
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
A recurrent theme throughout this war has been that Western decision-makers, driven by inherent risk aversion, are being pushed ever closer to a position where they will sooner or later have to accept tremendous risks to avert Ukrainian defeat and its catastrophic consequences.
July 7, 2025 at 10:05 AM
A recurrent theme throughout this war has been that Western decision-makers, driven by inherent risk aversion, are being pushed ever closer to a position where they will sooner or later have to accept tremendous risks to avert Ukrainian defeat and its catastrophic consequences.
The disrespect these people have for the lives of their allies soldiers that went to fight and die in wars they started is astonishing. It's also strange that some people on this side of the Atlantic still believe we are friends
HEGSETH: We wore a patch on our shoulder that said ISAF -- International Security Assistance Force. And you know what the joke was? That is stood for 'I saw Americans fighting.'
COONS: Let's just make clear for the record that our military partners in Afghanistan included many who served and died
COONS: Let's just make clear for the record that our military partners in Afghanistan included many who served and died
June 11, 2025 at 7:28 PM
The disrespect these people have for the lives of their allies soldiers that went to fight and die in wars they started is astonishing. It's also strange that some people on this side of the Atlantic still believe we are friends
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
I have been repeating this for the past 2 years and it’s time to repeat it once again to everyone in the west now complaining about escalation risks:
If we in the west don’t help Ukraine, they will help themselves. And we will have no control over how they do that.
If we in the west don’t help Ukraine, they will help themselves. And we will have no control over how they do that.
Ukraine asked for NATO membership, we said no because of Russian nukes.
Ukraine asked for security guarantees, we said no because of Russian nukes.
Ukraine asked for long-range weapons, we said no because of Russian nukes.
So Ukraine got rid of Russian strategic nuclear bombers
Ukraine asked for security guarantees, we said no because of Russian nukes.
Ukraine asked for long-range weapons, we said no because of Russian nukes.
So Ukraine got rid of Russian strategic nuclear bombers
June 1, 2025 at 7:35 PM
I have been repeating this for the past 2 years and it’s time to repeat it once again to everyone in the west now complaining about escalation risks:
If we in the west don’t help Ukraine, they will help themselves. And we will have no control over how they do that.
If we in the west don’t help Ukraine, they will help themselves. And we will have no control over how they do that.
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
After nearly 10 years of Brexit debate, it's quite remarkable to see how many commentators and policymakers in the UK still can't get their heads around the reality that most of their counterparts in the EU don't think much about the UK at all.
May 15, 2025 at 10:00 AM
After nearly 10 years of Brexit debate, it's quite remarkable to see how many commentators and policymakers in the UK still can't get their heads around the reality that most of their counterparts in the EU don't think much about the UK at all.
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
Hundreds of children are fighting in #Colombia's conflict, as armed groups depend on their unpaid labor to sustain the scale of their fight.
Today, I write in @ForeignAffairs on how recruitment happens and why we must get the kids out of this war.
www.foreignaffairs.com/north-americ...
Today, I write in @ForeignAffairs on how recruitment happens and why we must get the kids out of this war.
www.foreignaffairs.com/north-americ...
Colombia’s Stolen Children
Bogotá must do more to stop armed groups from recruiting minors.
www.foreignaffairs.com
May 8, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Hundreds of children are fighting in #Colombia's conflict, as armed groups depend on their unpaid labor to sustain the scale of their fight.
Today, I write in @ForeignAffairs on how recruitment happens and why we must get the kids out of this war.
www.foreignaffairs.com/north-americ...
Today, I write in @ForeignAffairs on how recruitment happens and why we must get the kids out of this war.
www.foreignaffairs.com/north-americ...
How does this even work? Does Netflix have to pay the us government the same they paid for streaming rights? What if they make a movie outside the US but it's their movie. Do they pay the govt. The production value? Also foreign films are a national security threat? Sounds like North Korean Policy
Trump says movies produced outside the U.S. are a national security threat. So he’s imposing a 100% tariff on all movies that are “produced in foreign lands.”
May 5, 2025 at 9:57 AM
How does this even work? Does Netflix have to pay the us government the same they paid for streaming rights? What if they make a movie outside the US but it's their movie. Do they pay the govt. The production value? Also foreign films are a national security threat? Sounds like North Korean Policy
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
I've just come back from the Cambridge Disinformation Summit where I gave the opening keynote, titled "Demanufacturing Consent - How Disordered Discourse is Destroying Democracy", featuring everything from Fake Hooves to Jackson Hinkle being the worst.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-FV...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-FV...
Belllingcat CEO Eliot Higgins, on how disordered discourse is destroying democracy
YouTube video by Cambridge Disinformation Summit
www.youtube.com
April 25, 2025 at 7:17 PM
I've just come back from the Cambridge Disinformation Summit where I gave the opening keynote, titled "Demanufacturing Consent - How Disordered Discourse is Destroying Democracy", featuring everything from Fake Hooves to Jackson Hinkle being the worst.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-FV...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-FV...
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
Any so-called security expert who still believes he can separate international alliances from domestic politics is utterly and completely kidding himself.
#Vance
#Vance
February 14, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Any so-called security expert who still believes he can separate international alliances from domestic politics is utterly and completely kidding himself.
#Vance
#Vance
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
The gravity of USAID's shuttering in #Colombia go well beyond gaps in the budget line.
Programs have been shut down in a way that could endanger communities and devastate U.S. access and credibility for many years. It also stands to destabilize #Colombia's delicate security🧵
Programs have been shut down in a way that could endanger communities and devastate U.S. access and credibility for many years. It also stands to destabilize #Colombia's delicate security🧵
February 6, 2025 at 5:00 PM
The gravity of USAID's shuttering in #Colombia go well beyond gaps in the budget line.
Programs have been shut down in a way that could endanger communities and devastate U.S. access and credibility for many years. It also stands to destabilize #Colombia's delicate security🧵
Programs have been shut down in a way that could endanger communities and devastate U.S. access and credibility for many years. It also stands to destabilize #Colombia's delicate security🧵
Es freut mich sehr, das wir so wahrgenommen werden :)
Zum Abschlussbericht: www.bundestag.de/resource/blo...
www.bundestag.de
January 31, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Es freut mich sehr, das wir so wahrgenommen werden :)
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
Am Vormittag den Opfern der Faschisten von gestern gedenken, um am Nachmittag den Faschisten von heute die Hand zu reichen. Ein zutiefst beschämender Tag für dieses Land und für eine Partei, die sich immer noch christlich nennt.
January 29, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Am Vormittag den Opfern der Faschisten von gestern gedenken, um am Nachmittag den Faschisten von heute die Hand zu reichen. Ein zutiefst beschämender Tag für dieses Land und für eine Partei, die sich immer noch christlich nennt.
We are also on Bluesky now! Follow for @hdhiik.bsky.social!
We are now on Bluesky! Follow us for insights and information about our research and conflicts around the world and our yearly publication, the Conflict Barometer!
December 23, 2024 at 11:38 AM
We are also on Bluesky now! Follow for @hdhiik.bsky.social!
Turning the Monroe doctrine into the Moron doctrine
President-elect Donald Trump said Saturday that the Panama Canal is charging “exorbitant prices and rates of passage” on US naval and merchant ships, and he demanded that fees be lowered or else Panama should return the canal to the US.
Trump Demands Panama Lower Transit Fees or Return Canal
President-elect Donald Trump said Saturday that the Panama Canal is charging “exorbitant prices and rates of passage” on US naval and merchant ships, and he demanded that fees be lowered or else Panam...
www.bloomberg.com
December 22, 2024 at 11:41 AM
Turning the Monroe doctrine into the Moron doctrine
So the Russians are negotiating keeping their Syrian bases and therefore their supply lines to Africa. Even after they bombed the rebels for years while the west just waits and squanders an amazing opportunity to cut said supply line. Another wasted chance...
December 12, 2024 at 8:05 PM
So the Russians are negotiating keeping their Syrian bases and therefore their supply lines to Africa. Even after they bombed the rebels for years while the west just waits and squanders an amazing opportunity to cut said supply line. Another wasted chance...
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
it's a bad day for the international network of dictators who live in similar palaces
🇸🇾👀 Syrian rebels have entered Assad's palace in Damascus. What Russia has been building in this country for almost 10 years has been destroyed.
‼️ This morning, the rebels announced the beginning of a new era. People in Syria are celebrating in the streets.
‼️ This morning, the rebels announced the beginning of a new era. People in Syria are celebrating in the streets.
December 8, 2024 at 7:05 AM
it's a bad day for the international network of dictators who live in similar palaces
People voted for Trump to "improve the economy", only for him to immediately proceed to nuke it by starting trade wars with the US's three largest trading partners.
November 27, 2024 at 10:01 AM
People voted for Trump to "improve the economy", only for him to immediately proceed to nuke it by starting trade wars with the US's three largest trading partners.
Es ist unglaublich, dass sie trotz alles was danach geschehen ist, nicht in der Lage ist, das Projekt als ein Fehler anzuerkennen
In dem sehr interessanten Gespräch mit
@annewill.bsky.social auf @zeit.de sagt Angela #Merkel, Nord Stream 2 sei für sie "auch politisch" zentral gewesen (um Russland einzubinden). Good to know! Seinerzeit hieß es, die Pipeline sei ein "rein wirtschaftliches Projekt". 😵💫
www.zeit.de/politik/deut...
@annewill.bsky.social auf @zeit.de sagt Angela #Merkel, Nord Stream 2 sei für sie "auch politisch" zentral gewesen (um Russland einzubinden). Good to know! Seinerzeit hieß es, die Pipeline sei ein "rein wirtschaftliches Projekt". 😵💫
www.zeit.de/politik/deut...
"Freiheit" von Angela Merkel: So lief die Buchpremiere von Angela Merkel
In ihrer Autobiografie "Freiheit. Erinnerungen 1954–2021" zieht Angela Merkel eine Bilanz ihrer Kanzlerschaft. Sehen Sie hier die Buchpremiere, moderiert von Anne Will.
www.zeit.de
November 26, 2024 at 10:26 PM
Es ist unglaublich, dass sie trotz alles was danach geschehen ist, nicht in der Lage ist, das Projekt als ein Fehler anzuerkennen
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
The lack of discipline of Trump and his courtiers means that any trust that was low to begin with between US military, intelligence, and law enforcement institutions will evaporate as each agency and unit hoards information out of fear that others in Washington or the White House will leak it.
November 26, 2024 at 10:51 AM
The lack of discipline of Trump and his courtiers means that any trust that was low to begin with between US military, intelligence, and law enforcement institutions will evaporate as each agency and unit hoards information out of fear that others in Washington or the White House will leak it.
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
Please don't get caught up on the range of the missile system launched. Whether it was an ICBM or an IRBM, the range isn't the important factor.
For signalling purposes it's much more significant that it was a MIRVed payload, which is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles.
For signalling purposes it's much more significant that it was a MIRVed payload, which is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles.
November 21, 2024 at 11:19 AM
Please don't get caught up on the range of the missile system launched. Whether it was an ICBM or an IRBM, the range isn't the important factor.
For signalling purposes it's much more significant that it was a MIRVed payload, which is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles.
For signalling purposes it's much more significant that it was a MIRVed payload, which is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles.
Reposted by Santiago Moncada
A nuclear threshold can be set as low as you want. It’s a made-up thing, not a natural law. But the lower you set it the harder it is to enforce & the harder you have to work to establish credibility in it.
November 19, 2024 at 11:09 AM
A nuclear threshold can be set as low as you want. It’s a made-up thing, not a natural law. But the lower you set it the harder it is to enforce & the harder you have to work to establish credibility in it.
This decision comes way too late. I fear.
Breaking News: President Biden authorized the first use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia, U.S. officials said. His decision is a major change in U.S. policy.
Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles
With two months left in office, the president for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to use the system known as ATACMS to help defend its forces in the Kursk region of Russia.
www.nytimes.com
November 17, 2024 at 6:52 PM
This decision comes way too late. I fear.
Tulsi Gabbard should never get a security clearance right? Right?!!
November 13, 2024 at 10:15 PM
Tulsi Gabbard should never get a security clearance right? Right?!!
To Everyone saying we shouldn't judge Kissinger too much and how complex he was. War crimes are bad. No matter how complex or accomplished the person behind them was. It's perfectly fair to judge him negatively for all the bad stuff he did. His other accomplishments don't change that.
November 30, 2023 at 11:12 AM
To Everyone saying we shouldn't judge Kissinger too much and how complex he was. War crimes are bad. No matter how complex or accomplished the person behind them was. It's perfectly fair to judge him negatively for all the bad stuff he did. His other accomplishments don't change that.
Unfassbar, dass RE Züge keine Netzstecker haben...
November 15, 2023 at 11:07 AM
Unfassbar, dass RE Züge keine Netzstecker haben...