Hegelian dialectics popping up in Melbourne laneways... Perhaps they've been listening to @originstorypodcast.bsky.social? @iandunt.bsky.social @dorianlynskey.bsky.social
November 16, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Hegelian dialectics popping up in Melbourne laneways... Perhaps they've been listening to @originstorypodcast.bsky.social? @iandunt.bsky.social @dorianlynskey.bsky.social
Reposted by Sam Vaughan
It's really hard to overstate how hugely favored conservatives were up until two months ago.
Here's the graph of Canadian polling between March 2023 and March 2025. (Reminder: blue is conservative.)
Those are months and months of 20+ point leads for Tories.
Here's the graph of Canadian polling between March 2023 and March 2025. (Reminder: blue is conservative.)
Those are months and months of 20+ point leads for Tories.
April 29, 2025 at 2:21 AM
It's really hard to overstate how hugely favored conservatives were up until two months ago.
Here's the graph of Canadian polling between March 2023 and March 2025. (Reminder: blue is conservative.)
Those are months and months of 20+ point leads for Tories.
Here's the graph of Canadian polling between March 2023 and March 2025. (Reminder: blue is conservative.)
Those are months and months of 20+ point leads for Tories.
Reposted by Sam Vaughan
Looking at our model for the upcoming federal election, minority government is all but a certainty. We're able to quantify it based on the current polls: 95%!
See poliq.au/2025/04/07/p... for details of @samvaughan.bsky.social 's great work on this. #auspol
See poliq.au/2025/04/07/p... for details of @samvaughan.bsky.social 's great work on this. #auspol
April 7, 2025 at 2:54 AM
Looking at our model for the upcoming federal election, minority government is all but a certainty. We're able to quantify it based on the current polls: 95%!
See poliq.au/2025/04/07/p... for details of @samvaughan.bsky.social 's great work on this. #auspol
See poliq.au/2025/04/07/p... for details of @samvaughan.bsky.social 's great work on this. #auspol
A sneak peak at the seat-by-seat modelling I'm working on over at PolIQ for the upcoming Australian federal election. Keep an eye out for more in the coming weeks...
A few surprises in Redbridge's latest data. We'll release our model in the next week along with a prediction for the next parliament, but our results diverge a bit, especially in Victoria. It's hard to see the Greens going backwards in Wills, we have them significantly ahead:
#auspol
#auspol
December 6, 2024 at 6:08 AM
A sneak peak at the seat-by-seat modelling I'm working on over at PolIQ for the upcoming Australian federal election. Keep an eye out for more in the coming weeks...
Reposted by Sam Vaughan
Political nerds: Have a play with my Prahran by-election simulator, and tell me what you think a realistic outcome is. prahran-byelection.streamlit.app #vicpol #prahran
prahran-byelection.streamlit.app
December 3, 2024 at 4:10 AM
Political nerds: Have a play with my Prahran by-election simulator, and tell me what you think a realistic outcome is. prahran-byelection.streamlit.app #vicpol #prahran
Reposted by Sam Vaughan
The Greens have lost an MP in Prahran who took it from a margin of 30 votes to a safe seat. Can the Liberals reclaim it? I don't think so. poliq.au/2024/11/29/h... #auspol #vicpol #prahran
poliq.au
December 3, 2024 at 3:56 AM
The Greens have lost an MP in Prahran who took it from a margin of 30 votes to a safe seat. Can the Liberals reclaim it? I don't think so. poliq.au/2024/11/29/h... #auspol #vicpol #prahran
Reposted by Sam Vaughan
Our poll tracker shows the ALP and Coalition in a statistical dead heat. The momentum is not in the government's favour. This may increase the odds of an early election. The Ides of March! #auspol poliq.au/2024/12/03/w...
Who's ahead in the polls? - PolIQ
With the next Australian federal election just around the corner, there are wide variety of different opinion polls out there trying to gauge which way the political winds are blowing. ...
poliq.au
December 3, 2024 at 4:16 AM
Our poll tracker shows the ALP and Coalition in a statistical dead heat. The momentum is not in the government's favour. This may increase the odds of an early election. The Ides of March! #auspol poliq.au/2024/12/03/w...