It's really hard to overstate how hugely favored conservatives were up until two months ago.

Here's the graph of Canadian polling between March 2023 and March 2025. (Reminder: blue is conservative.)

Those are months and months of 20+ point leads for Tories.

Hi Nina! There's been a couple of improved polls for Labor recently (ie a few at 52/48 2PP), but the weighted average of all polls in our model is more like 50.5/49.5, so closer than in 2022! We'll see if that trend continues for the ALP