Samuel Doveri Vesterbye
samueljsdv.bsky.social
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye
@samueljsdv.bsky.social
Director of European Neighbourhood Council | Author of Security Threats along EU’s 🇪🇺 Eastern Flanks (Palgrave: London) | #CentralAsia #Caucasus #Türkiye #MENA | Independence | Danish 🇩🇰🇪🇺 & Italian 🇮🇹🇪🇺|
🔸Is Erdogan testing to see how Europe 🇪🇺will act? EU needs Türkiye 🇹🇷 defence and Trump appears to have given green light. Most important is to watch world’s 3rd largest economy: what will Germany 🇩🇪🇪🇺 say?

[END].
March 20, 2025 at 1:36 PM
🔸US & Türkiye 🇺🇸🇹🇷 also appear to have deep structural differences: Israel 🇮🇱& Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Horn of Africa, Green Energy versus Gas/Oil, Egypt, Caucasus and Central Asia, China 🇨🇳 policy and list goes on.

Continued . . .
March 20, 2025 at 1:35 PM
🔸Numerically, Türkiye's 🇹🇷 economy, security and energy is European. This is easily demonstrated in trade, foreign investment, logistic connectivity & energy export market figures. US 🇺🇸🇹🇷 trade is less than 6% and EU 🇪🇺🇹🇷 trade is more than 45%.

. . . Continued
March 20, 2025 at 1:33 PM
🔸Why? No geo-political analyst would say otherwise. All trade figures, infrastructure, CU, electricity grid, supply chains support this.

🔸”If 🇹🇷 choose a security/economic relationship with 🇺🇸 US . . . it would be short-lived gain; it 🇹🇷 would be shooting itself in foot.”

. . . Continued
March 20, 2025 at 1:32 PM
New 🇪🇺🇹🇷 article by @news.dw.com is kind enough to quote my analysis.

Çok teşekkürler / Danke🙏

Topic: İmamoğlu imprisonment and Erdogan reach for power & international bargaining 🇺🇸🇪🇺👇

🔸”Türkiye's 🇹🇷 natural choice should be Europe, where it shares a common geography.”

. . . Continued
March 20, 2025 at 1:21 PM
I wish I could have joined you in Rome 🇮🇹🇪🇺, Bucharest 🇷🇴🇪🇺, Belgrade 🇷🇸🇪🇺, Brussels 🇧🇪🇪🇺, Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Tbilisi 🇬🇪🇪🇺and many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch.

I wore my 🇪🇺 jumper for a morning jog.

Viva L’Europa! 🙏

#UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity
March 16, 2025 at 10:35 AM
#French 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Türkiye 🇹🇷 in European security architecture 👇

Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for ‘Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignement’👇

cf2r.org/actualite/quel…
March 10, 2025 at 5:19 PM
. . . Continued

🔸#US 🇺🇸 gets closer to #Russia 🇷🇺 in order to fight #China 🇨🇳 at expense of 🇪🇺 Europe, including Türkiye 🇹🇷

🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 is an ally of Kiev 🇺🇦 & must be included in 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺 core European security architecture

Link 🔗 Turkish language Hürriyet 🇹🇷 hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-…

[END].
March 5, 2025 at 6:27 AM
#Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic 🇹🇷 audience ⤵️

🇪🇺🇹🇷 Çok teşekkürler 🙏

Main points of Op-Ed 👇

🔸Trump 🇺🇸 #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy 🇺🇦

🔸#Nuclear France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 & German 🇩🇪🇪🇺#Eurobonds to replace Washington?

. . . Continued
March 5, 2025 at 6:26 AM
. . .

Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play.

Paradoxically, EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time.

Read my article (2024) about #Türkiye in Europe’s New Security Architecture 🇪🇺🇹🇷 liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...
February 23, 2025 at 5:25 AM
. . .

Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europe’s leading powers.

Only time will tell.

What remains certain: 🇫🇷 popular misconceptions about 🇹🇷 and 🇫🇷 should be relegated to the past.

. . . (Continued)
February 23, 2025 at 5:21 AM
. . .

Complex points of contention 🇫🇷🇹🇷👇

🔸Africa influence
🔸Caucasus & Central Asia
🔸Customs Union & EIB
🔸Security, Space & Defence
🔸Strategic Autonomy
🔸Eastern Mediterranean
🔸Cyprus territorial integrity
🔸Greek maritime
🔸Nuclear Plants
🔸Theology & Laicite
🔸Syria
🔸Migration

. . . (Continued)
February 23, 2025 at 5:19 AM
. . .

@EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept Erdoğan’s invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling.

@rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete.

. . . (Continued)
February 23, 2025 at 5:15 AM
The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇹🇷 Franco-Turkish rapprochement.

The question is whether 🇹🇷 Ankara and 🇫🇷Paris are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington.

. . . (Continued)
February 23, 2025 at 5:12 AM
🔟 Türkiye 🇹🇷 has limited firepower without EU 🇪🇺.

EIB & EBRD are pillars for success when it comes to large scale investments in technology, energy, infrastructure etc.

It’s important that Türkiye 🇹🇷 start considering EU 🇪🇺 needs to attract investment, sustainable supply chains & defence coop.

END.
January 30, 2025 at 1:49 PM
. . .

9️⃣ CRM & Central Asia

In today’s “hunt for Minerals” Central Asia will benefit from investment and tech-transfer. Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 & Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 have signed MOUs with EU 🇪🇺. Türkiye 🇹🇷 is well placed for processing, construction & other activities, provided 🇪🇺🇹🇷relations improve.

Continued . . .
January 30, 2025 at 1:46 PM
. . .

7️⃣ Russia 🇷🇺 containment.

Nordics, Baltics & East of Europe know that Türkiye 🇹🇷 is a key ally in containing Russia 🇷🇺 in Central Asia, Caucasus and elsewhere.

At the same time, Ankara has a polemically (unbalanced) energy relationship with Moscow in nuclear ☢️ and gas ⛽️.

Continued . . .
January 30, 2025 at 1:43 PM
6️⃣ Security.

Türkiye 🇹🇷 is NATO member and - in the era of new European 🇪🇺 defence - it’s crystal clear that Türkiye 🇹🇷 needs the spending power and technology of the EU 🇪🇺defence industry, while EU needs Ankara for ground experience & strategic partnership.

Continued . . .
January 30, 2025 at 1:40 PM
. . .

Migration management is important, but the long term strategy cannot be to “outsource everything to Türkiye 🇹🇷”. Increased common foreign policy in region (de-escalating + border management) helps to avoid crisis and forced migration. Return of Gymlich is good, more is needed.

Continued . . .
January 30, 2025 at 1:39 PM
. . .

5️⃣ Türkiye’s Stability, migration & spillover

Türkiye 🇹🇷 is close to “the action” & sometimes it also instigates it (while at times also a victim of others). Whatever the reasons, the stability of 🇹🇷 is of strategic interest economically, security, & politically for 🇪🇺 EU.

Continued . . .
January 30, 2025 at 1:37 PM
. . .

If Türkiye 🇹🇷 commits to Republican values (currently not the case), there is a real chance for Turkic Islam to play a bigger role amongst European Muslims in year to come. This however requires careful, moderate and intelligent diplomacy in sensitive areas.

Continued . . .
January 30, 2025 at 1:34 PM
. . .

4️⃣ Moderate Islam ☪️

It’s been a taboo to talk about culture & creed for a long time. Reality is that it matters to billions and mobilises people in ways that other things don’t. Europeans have therefore come around to think about religious narratives in recent years.

Continued . . .
January 30, 2025 at 1:33 PM
. . .

The big prize of Ankara’s energy dreams is to transit Turkmen 🇹🇲 , Iraqi 🇮🇶 or Iranian 🇮🇷 reserves one day. Each have problems & benefits, as well as realistic & unrealistic prospects. Benefits include diversifying away from Russia (cheaply), but w risk of overdependence on 🇹🇷.

Continued . . .
January 30, 2025 at 1:32 PM
. . .

3️⃣ Energy transit.

Energy is the motor of economy & a primary geopolitical factor. Türkiye 🇹🇷 is a non-fossil fuel exporting country, but it lay strategically and serves as a transit for gas/oil. It aims towards becoming a hub, something which it competes for w Greece+others

. . . continued
January 30, 2025 at 1:30 PM
This is true, but it is only true if Europe only invests in Trans-Caspian. Instead, as it does, Europe should invest and diversify across many corridors, including Trans-Atlantic, Suez, IMEC/Israel, Africa, L. America and so forth.

. . . Continued
January 30, 2025 at 1:26 PM