Sam Tims
sam-tims.bsky.social
Sam Tims
@sam-tims.bsky.social
Lead analyst at JRF researching and posting on social security, tax, the cost of living and other things too. Previously NEF, policy in Practice
kntn.ly
November 19, 2025 at 7:47 AM
These measures would give social security a much needed boost, support the economy, and go a long way in protecting children's living standards
September 29, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Improvements of this scale are urgently needed.

Families with children saw unprecedented reductions in their income last parliament and could do so again given the poor economic outlook
September 29, 2025 at 10:28 AM
On its own, scrapping the two-child limit would lift around 300k children out of relative poverty.

But 140k kids are already impacted by the two-child limit and the benefit cap

So pairing up with a protected minimum floor would overall reduce child poverty by 500k in 2029/30
September 29, 2025 at 10:28 AM
The average couple with kids is projected to lose £750 a year (1.3%) over the parliament. These two changes would reduce that by a third

Lone parent families would be even better supported. Rather than losing 3.0% of income (£780) they would instead be £320 a year better off
September 29, 2025 at 10:28 AM
But these projections can also be downgraded

As my colleague Chris Belfield has pointed out on the other place, lower productivity growth will make us poorer

For the full write-up of the analysis from Chris, @statspeter.bsky.social, and myself see the link below

www.jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi...
A decade of falling incomes? JRF's pre-budget assessment of living standards
Average incomes are expected to fall by £550 over this parliament, meaning the Government risks having the worst living standards performance of any parliament on record.
www.jrf.org.uk
September 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Our estimates of living standards are based on the latest OBR and BoE projections for the economy. This data can and will change over the parliament as the economic and policy landscape changes

The more Government does now to improve incomes the better the outlook will be
September 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Working-age households will fare worse than pensioners, driven in part by very different experiences of social security

Where over 65s will receive £270 more from social security, households headed by someone aged 35 - 64 will receive £150 less. For U35s the loss is £240
September 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
We project that the average real disposable income will be 1.3% (£550) lower in September 2029 than in 2024

Low-income households are set to lose the greatest proportion of their income - 2.7% lower than in 2024, leaving their income 6.2% (£1,110) lower than in 2019
September 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
This analysis is one part of a forthcoming report from myself, @meriahlberg.bsky.social, and Fran Ladouch

That report makes the wider argument that these cuts are not the way to help disabled people into work, resulting instead in far greater hardship
June 24, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Employers in more affluent areas of the country are more likely to encourage applications from disabled people, with 1 disability confident role for every 47 people on UC-Health

In ex-industrial areas this rises to 1 for every 333 people - a staggering gap that the cuts will do nothing to help
June 24, 2025 at 8:19 AM