Sam Tims
@sam-tims.bsky.social
Lead analyst at JRF researching and posting on social security, tax, the cost of living and other things too. Previously NEF, policy in Practice
Scrapping the two-child limit will significantly reduce child poverty over the parliament and improve the living standards outlook for low-income families
But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system
But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system
November 26, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Scrapping the two-child limit will significantly reduce child poverty over the parliament and improve the living standards outlook for low-income families
But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system
But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system
Brilliant to see that the two-child limit will be scrapped, lifting 450,000 children out of poverty in 2029/30
November 26, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Brilliant to see that the two-child limit will be scrapped, lifting 450,000 children out of poverty in 2029/30
Good to see DWP accepting much of the Work and Pensions Committee's recommendations for improving jobcentres
Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security
Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security
November 19, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Good to see DWP accepting much of the Work and Pensions Committee's recommendations for improving jobcentres
Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security
Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security
Improvements of this scale are urgently needed.
Families with children saw unprecedented reductions in their income last parliament and could do so again given the poor economic outlook
Families with children saw unprecedented reductions in their income last parliament and could do so again given the poor economic outlook
September 29, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Improvements of this scale are urgently needed.
Families with children saw unprecedented reductions in their income last parliament and could do so again given the poor economic outlook
Families with children saw unprecedented reductions in their income last parliament and could do so again given the poor economic outlook
In new @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families
Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
September 29, 2025 at 10:28 AM
In new @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families
Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
Working-age households will fare worse than pensioners, driven in part by very different experiences of social security
Where over 65s will receive £270 more from social security, households headed by someone aged 35 - 64 will receive £150 less. For U35s the loss is £240
Where over 65s will receive £270 more from social security, households headed by someone aged 35 - 64 will receive £150 less. For U35s the loss is £240
September 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Working-age households will fare worse than pensioners, driven in part by very different experiences of social security
Where over 65s will receive £270 more from social security, households headed by someone aged 35 - 64 will receive £150 less. For U35s the loss is £240
Where over 65s will receive £270 more from social security, households headed by someone aged 35 - 64 will receive £150 less. For U35s the loss is £240
We project that the average real disposable income will be 1.3% (£550) lower in September 2029 than in 2024
Low-income households are set to lose the greatest proportion of their income - 2.7% lower than in 2024, leaving their income 6.2% (£1,110) lower than in 2019
Low-income households are set to lose the greatest proportion of their income - 2.7% lower than in 2024, leaving their income 6.2% (£1,110) lower than in 2019
September 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
We project that the average real disposable income will be 1.3% (£550) lower in September 2029 than in 2024
Low-income households are set to lose the greatest proportion of their income - 2.7% lower than in 2024, leaving their income 6.2% (£1,110) lower than in 2019
Low-income households are set to lose the greatest proportion of their income - 2.7% lower than in 2024, leaving their income 6.2% (£1,110) lower than in 2019
Analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social this week suggests this could be the worst parliament for living standards since detailed records began
This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials
This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials
September 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social this week suggests this could be the worst parliament for living standards since detailed records began
This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials
This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials
Over 1.6m children are now impacted by the Two-Child Limit - 11.6% of all children
This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship
It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be
This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship
It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be
July 10, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Over 1.6m children are now impacted by the Two-Child Limit - 11.6% of all children
This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship
It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be
This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship
It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be
There is just 1 disability confident vacancy for every 121 people on UC-Health nationwide, this is clearly not enough
But the local disparities present for all job adverts are amplified for disability confident roles, with the greatest competition in some of the areas likely hardest hit by the cuts
But the local disparities present for all job adverts are amplified for disability confident roles, with the greatest competition in some of the areas likely hardest hit by the cuts
June 24, 2025 at 8:19 AM
There is just 1 disability confident vacancy for every 121 people on UC-Health nationwide, this is clearly not enough
But the local disparities present for all job adverts are amplified for disability confident roles, with the greatest competition in some of the areas likely hardest hit by the cuts
But the local disparities present for all job adverts are amplified for disability confident roles, with the greatest competition in some of the areas likely hardest hit by the cuts
Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
June 24, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
And should someone receiving care lose entitlement to PIP daily living, the lost family income could surpass £1,000 per month
For those impacted - we don't yet have an estimate for how many will be - these cuts will make it significantly more difficult to put food on the table
For those impacted - we don't yet have an estimate for how many will be - these cuts will make it significantly more difficult to put food on the table
March 26, 2025 at 6:53 AM
And should someone receiving care lose entitlement to PIP daily living, the lost family income could surpass £1,000 per month
For those impacted - we don't yet have an estimate for how many will be - these cuts will make it significantly more difficult to put food on the table
For those impacted - we don't yet have an estimate for how many will be - these cuts will make it significantly more difficult to put food on the table
These cuts will make life harder for the entire family - how the reforms interact with the upcoming Child Poverty Strategy is incredibly important
We already know there are ~900,000 children in a family where someone is unable to work for health reasons
We already know there are ~900,000 children in a family where someone is unable to work for health reasons
March 26, 2025 at 6:53 AM
These cuts will make life harder for the entire family - how the reforms interact with the upcoming Child Poverty Strategy is incredibly important
We already know there are ~900,000 children in a family where someone is unable to work for health reasons
We already know there are ~900,000 children in a family where someone is unable to work for health reasons
And despite the supposed moral case for helping people into work, these cuts will also affect some disabled people already in-work
For example, someone working part-time at the minimum wage that no longer receives PIP daily living will be about £350 per month worse off
For example, someone working part-time at the minimum wage that no longer receives PIP daily living will be about £350 per month worse off
March 26, 2025 at 6:53 AM
And despite the supposed moral case for helping people into work, these cuts will also affect some disabled people already in-work
For example, someone working part-time at the minimum wage that no longer receives PIP daily living will be about £350 per month worse off
For example, someone working part-time at the minimum wage that no longer receives PIP daily living will be about £350 per month worse off
Even if they do still receive PIP daily living and LCWRA, as a new recipient they will still lose over £200 per month
They could be set to lose even more if reports last night are correct
They could be set to lose even more if reports last night are correct
March 26, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Even if they do still receive PIP daily living and LCWRA, as a new recipient they will still lose over £200 per month
They could be set to lose even more if reports last night are correct
They could be set to lose even more if reports last night are correct
Later today we'll have a better understanding of the magnitude of cuts to social security
But we already know the rough impacts for individual households
Like someone making a new claim that doesn't get PIP daily living or LCWRA and so could lose almost 60% of their AHC income
But we already know the rough impacts for individual households
Like someone making a new claim that doesn't get PIP daily living or LCWRA and so could lose almost 60% of their AHC income
March 26, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Later today we'll have a better understanding of the magnitude of cuts to social security
But we already know the rough impacts for individual households
Like someone making a new claim that doesn't get PIP daily living or LCWRA and so could lose almost 60% of their AHC income
But we already know the rough impacts for individual households
Like someone making a new claim that doesn't get PIP daily living or LCWRA and so could lose almost 60% of their AHC income
The cuts outlined last week were already going to cause significant hardship for disabled people
Someone losing out on health related UC and most of PIP could see their monthly income fall by over £800
Now further rash cuts are on the way. In no way is this a sensible approach to policy-making
Someone losing out on health related UC and most of PIP could see their monthly income fall by over £800
Now further rash cuts are on the way. In no way is this a sensible approach to policy-making
March 25, 2025 at 9:39 PM
The cuts outlined last week were already going to cause significant hardship for disabled people
Someone losing out on health related UC and most of PIP could see their monthly income fall by over £800
Now further rash cuts are on the way. In no way is this a sensible approach to policy-making
Someone losing out on health related UC and most of PIP could see their monthly income fall by over £800
Now further rash cuts are on the way. In no way is this a sensible approach to policy-making
It's frustrating so see this idea reemerge, and for it go unchallenged on R4 Today while cuts to the most vulnerable are being discussed
First of all, historical analysis by @jrf-uk.bsky.social has found that it is very rare for two generations in the same family to have never worked
First of all, historical analysis by @jrf-uk.bsky.social has found that it is very rare for two generations in the same family to have never worked
March 12, 2025 at 12:44 PM
It's frustrating so see this idea reemerge, and for it go unchallenged on R4 Today while cuts to the most vulnerable are being discussed
First of all, historical analysis by @jrf-uk.bsky.social has found that it is very rare for two generations in the same family to have never worked
First of all, historical analysis by @jrf-uk.bsky.social has found that it is very rare for two generations in the same family to have never worked
And it's important to put this spending in the context of wider social security spending
As @benbgeiger.bsky.social shows, the cost trajectory of working-age welfare isn't spiralling
Instead there is a shift in how people receive support, not a significant increase in the amount received
As @benbgeiger.bsky.social shows, the cost trajectory of working-age welfare isn't spiralling
Instead there is a shift in how people receive support, not a significant increase in the amount received
January 29, 2025 at 12:59 PM
And it's important to put this spending in the context of wider social security spending
As @benbgeiger.bsky.social shows, the cost trajectory of working-age welfare isn't spiralling
Instead there is a shift in how people receive support, not a significant increase in the amount received
As @benbgeiger.bsky.social shows, the cost trajectory of working-age welfare isn't spiralling
Instead there is a shift in how people receive support, not a significant increase in the amount received
In her speech the CX mentioned the rising cost of social security for people with health conditions and disabilities
With further cuts expected to the support people receive, it's worth highlighting that 30% (243k) of the rise in the health caseload is due to expected policy and demographic changes
With further cuts expected to the support people receive, it's worth highlighting that 30% (243k) of the rise in the health caseload is due to expected policy and demographic changes
January 29, 2025 at 12:59 PM
In her speech the CX mentioned the rising cost of social security for people with health conditions and disabilities
With further cuts expected to the support people receive, it's worth highlighting that 30% (243k) of the rise in the health caseload is due to expected policy and demographic changes
With further cuts expected to the support people receive, it's worth highlighting that 30% (243k) of the rise in the health caseload is due to expected policy and demographic changes
Excellent to see the HSF has been extended, but as Katie says local welfare is in a mess. Long-term funding can start to fix that.
The friction with national DWP policy should also be reviewed e.g. UC deductions reduce incomes by more than local welfare spending in every region.
The friction with national DWP policy should also be reviewed e.g. UC deductions reduce incomes by more than local welfare spending in every region.
September 2, 2024 at 2:19 PM
Excellent to see the HSF has been extended, but as Katie says local welfare is in a mess. Long-term funding can start to fix that.
The friction with national DWP policy should also be reviewed e.g. UC deductions reduce incomes by more than local welfare spending in every region.
The friction with national DWP policy should also be reviewed e.g. UC deductions reduce incomes by more than local welfare spending in every region.
I imagine it's related to the Scottish devolution of WFP, this is an image from the DWP outturn and forecast tables
August 28, 2024 at 9:02 AM
I imagine it's related to the Scottish devolution of WFP, this is an image from the DWP outturn and forecast tables