Sam Tims
@sam-tims.bsky.social
Lead analyst at JRF researching and posting on social security, tax, the cost of living and other things too. Previously NEF, policy in Practice
Scrapping the two-child limit will significantly reduce child poverty over the parliament and improve the living standards outlook for low-income families
But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system
But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system
November 26, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Scrapping the two-child limit will significantly reduce child poverty over the parliament and improve the living standards outlook for low-income families
But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system
But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system
Brilliant to see that the two-child limit will be scrapped, lifting 450,000 children out of poverty in 2029/30
November 26, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Brilliant to see that the two-child limit will be scrapped, lifting 450,000 children out of poverty in 2029/30
Reposted by Sam Tims
📊 Latest figures out from the ONS this morning showed that inflation slowed to 3.6%.
But food inflation rose to 4.9%, up from 4.5% in the previous month.
The outlook for around 7 million households going without essentials in the UK remains extremely stark.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
But food inflation rose to 4.9%, up from 4.5% in the previous month.
The outlook for around 7 million households going without essentials in the UK remains extremely stark.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK inflation rate falls to 3.6% in year to October
Prices have been rising more slowly in the twelve months to October.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 19, 2025 at 8:20 AM
📊 Latest figures out from the ONS this morning showed that inflation slowed to 3.6%.
But food inflation rose to 4.9%, up from 4.5% in the previous month.
The outlook for around 7 million households going without essentials in the UK remains extremely stark.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
But food inflation rose to 4.9%, up from 4.5% in the previous month.
The outlook for around 7 million households going without essentials in the UK remains extremely stark.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Good to see DWP accepting much of the Work and Pensions Committee's recommendations for improving jobcentres
Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security
Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security
November 19, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Good to see DWP accepting much of the Work and Pensions Committee's recommendations for improving jobcentres
Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security
Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security
Reposted by Sam Tims
Truly fascinating stuff here! Kitchen table concerns vs things your newsfeed tells you to worry about…
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
November 17, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Truly fascinating stuff here! Kitchen table concerns vs things your newsfeed tells you to worry about…
Reposted by Sam Tims
It really is worth taking the time to hear from people like “Mary,” who fled from Zimbabwe 20 years ago, to understand what life is like when the law denies you the chance to call the country where you’ve made your life home
In 2023 @tom-clark.bsky.social got me to write a chapter for his book on UK poverty about how immigration limbo, which Labour wants more of, makes people destitute. It was the most distressing piece I've ever worked on. We sent a copy to every MP. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/society/6081...
Destitute by design: trapped in the immigration system
Migration policy is not only failing people forced to arrive in Britain by
boats. In an extract from a new edited volume, Daniel Trilling reports on t...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
November 16, 2025 at 7:54 PM
It really is worth taking the time to hear from people like “Mary,” who fled from Zimbabwe 20 years ago, to understand what life is like when the law denies you the chance to call the country where you’ve made your life home
Reposted by Sam Tims
Practical and progressive action here from the govt. Healthy workers benefit their companies and society overall. Right that employers are part of making that happen.
📒 Government published Sir Charlie Mayfield's ‘Keep Britain Working’ report today.
An ambitious framework for how employers can support workers in ill-health.
Focus must be here to shift the dial on employment of disabled people & benefit spend, not cutting people's benefits. 🧵
An ambitious framework for how employers can support workers in ill-health.
Focus must be here to shift the dial on employment of disabled people & benefit spend, not cutting people's benefits. 🧵
This morning's reading: "Employers join forces with government to tackle ill-health and keep Britain working" from Department of Health and Social Care www.gov.uk/government/n...
November 6, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Practical and progressive action here from the govt. Healthy workers benefit their companies and society overall. Right that employers are part of making that happen.
In new @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families
Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
September 29, 2025 at 10:28 AM
In new @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families
Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
Analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social this week suggests this could be the worst parliament for living standards since detailed records began
This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials
This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials
September 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social this week suggests this could be the worst parliament for living standards since detailed records began
This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials
This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials
Reposted by Sam Tims
Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).
July 24, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).
Over 1.6m children are now impacted by the Two-Child Limit - 11.6% of all children
This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship
It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be
This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship
It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be
July 10, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Over 1.6m children are now impacted by the Two-Child Limit - 11.6% of all children
This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship
It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be
This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship
It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be
Reposted by Sam Tims
Reposted by Sam Tims
The Govt has not published an employment impact assessment for their disability benefit cuts & increased employment support
📣New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows where you live matters, with competition for jobs higher in some areas with higher claims: former industrial & coastal areas 1/5
📣New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows where you live matters, with competition for jobs higher in some areas with higher claims: former industrial & coastal areas 1/5
Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
June 24, 2025 at 12:53 PM
The Govt has not published an employment impact assessment for their disability benefit cuts & increased employment support
📣New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows where you live matters, with competition for jobs higher in some areas with higher claims: former industrial & coastal areas 1/5
📣New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows where you live matters, with competition for jobs higher in some areas with higher claims: former industrial & coastal areas 1/5
Reposted by Sam Tims
Ahead of a crucial vote on cuts to disability benefits, our new evidence casts doubt on whether jobs are even available for disabled people facing cuts 📢
The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities 1/3
The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities 1/3
June 24, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Ahead of a crucial vote on cuts to disability benefits, our new evidence casts doubt on whether jobs are even available for disabled people facing cuts 📢
The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities 1/3
The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities 1/3
Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
June 24, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold
Reposted by Sam Tims
What the child poverty strategy is is much more important than when it is.
1 million children are in destitution and pulling them out of poverty requires serious action on social security. Hope govt can see that.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
1 million children are in destitution and pulling them out of poverty requires serious action on social security. Hope govt can see that.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
No 10 delays child poverty strategy with tens of thousands more facing hardship
Exclusive: Flagship policy put back until at least autumn amid fears cost of removing two-child benefit cap will outweigh political benefit
www.theguardian.com
May 23, 2025 at 3:50 PM
What the child poverty strategy is is much more important than when it is.
1 million children are in destitution and pulling them out of poverty requires serious action on social security. Hope govt can see that.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
1 million children are in destitution and pulling them out of poverty requires serious action on social security. Hope govt can see that.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Reposted by Sam Tims
Where will the cuts to sickness & disability benefits hit hardest?
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social constituency analysis shows the % of working age people receiving these benefits in England & Wales.
Some MP inboxes are likely to be brimming, as concern about these plans is widespread
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social constituency analysis shows the % of working age people receiving these benefits in England & Wales.
Some MP inboxes are likely to be brimming, as concern about these plans is widespread
April 2, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Where will the cuts to sickness & disability benefits hit hardest?
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social constituency analysis shows the % of working age people receiving these benefits in England & Wales.
Some MP inboxes are likely to be brimming, as concern about these plans is widespread
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social constituency analysis shows the % of working age people receiving these benefits in England & Wales.
Some MP inboxes are likely to be brimming, as concern about these plans is widespread
Reposted by Sam Tims
This was raised in the Commons today. Heartening to see MPs across the House - many drawing on their lived experience - highlight deep concern over changes to PIP eligibility leading to loss of Carer's Allowance. parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...
March 27, 2025 at 1:59 PM
This was raised in the Commons today. Heartening to see MPs across the House - many drawing on their lived experience - highlight deep concern over changes to PIP eligibility leading to loss of Carer's Allowance. parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...
Reposted by Sam Tims
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
March 26, 2025 at 6:34 PM
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.
Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.
We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.
Thread.
#SpringStatement
Reposted by Sam Tims
OBR's measure of living standards, RHDI, is up by £500 - largely due to stronger wage growth, including planning reforms which boost incomes.
BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).
1/3
BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).
1/3
March 26, 2025 at 3:20 PM
OBR's measure of living standards, RHDI, is up by £500 - largely due to stronger wage growth, including planning reforms which boost incomes.
BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).
1/3
BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).
1/3
Reposted by Sam Tims
Some families with a disabled adult stand to lose over £12,000 per year by 2029/30 as a result of the Government's disability benefit cuts.
Hardship being deepened by rebuilding the nations finances on the backs of disabled people
And polling suggests the public know it.
Hardship being deepened by rebuilding the nations finances on the backs of disabled people
And polling suggests the public know it.
March 26, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Some families with a disabled adult stand to lose over £12,000 per year by 2029/30 as a result of the Government's disability benefit cuts.
Hardship being deepened by rebuilding the nations finances on the backs of disabled people
And polling suggests the public know it.
Hardship being deepened by rebuilding the nations finances on the backs of disabled people
And polling suggests the public know it.
Later today we'll have a better understanding of the magnitude of cuts to social security
But we already know the rough impacts for individual households
Like someone making a new claim that doesn't get PIP daily living or LCWRA and so could lose almost 60% of their AHC income
But we already know the rough impacts for individual households
Like someone making a new claim that doesn't get PIP daily living or LCWRA and so could lose almost 60% of their AHC income
March 26, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Later today we'll have a better understanding of the magnitude of cuts to social security
But we already know the rough impacts for individual households
Like someone making a new claim that doesn't get PIP daily living or LCWRA and so could lose almost 60% of their AHC income
But we already know the rough impacts for individual households
Like someone making a new claim that doesn't get PIP daily living or LCWRA and so could lose almost 60% of their AHC income
The cuts outlined last week were already going to cause significant hardship for disabled people
Someone losing out on health related UC and most of PIP could see their monthly income fall by over £800
Now further rash cuts are on the way. In no way is this a sensible approach to policy-making
Someone losing out on health related UC and most of PIP could see their monthly income fall by over £800
Now further rash cuts are on the way. In no way is this a sensible approach to policy-making
March 25, 2025 at 9:39 PM
The cuts outlined last week were already going to cause significant hardship for disabled people
Someone losing out on health related UC and most of PIP could see their monthly income fall by over £800
Now further rash cuts are on the way. In no way is this a sensible approach to policy-making
Someone losing out on health related UC and most of PIP could see their monthly income fall by over £800
Now further rash cuts are on the way. In no way is this a sensible approach to policy-making
Reposted by Sam Tims
Living standards are forecast to have already peaked this parliament, with Keir Starmer on track to preside over the worst parliament in modern history for living standards.
New JRF analysis on living standards ahead of the Spring Statement ⬇️
1/🧵
New JRF analysis on living standards ahead of the Spring Statement ⬇️
1/🧵
March 24, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Living standards are forecast to have already peaked this parliament, with Keir Starmer on track to preside over the worst parliament in modern history for living standards.
New JRF analysis on living standards ahead of the Spring Statement ⬇️
1/🧵
New JRF analysis on living standards ahead of the Spring Statement ⬇️
1/🧵
Reposted by Sam Tims
Big picture today is Government chose to cut unprecedented £5bn of income from disabled people at highest risk of hardship. This drive for cost savings undermines any positive changes contained in the disability benefits green paper.
Here are some other big problems:🧵1/11
Here are some other big problems:🧵1/11
March 18, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Big picture today is Government chose to cut unprecedented £5bn of income from disabled people at highest risk of hardship. This drive for cost savings undermines any positive changes contained in the disability benefits green paper.
Here are some other big problems:🧵1/11
Here are some other big problems:🧵1/11