From a client presentation hosted by JPM analyst Michael Cemblast and quoted by BBG “ People are being held accountable for their views and the things they say in ways that they probably shouldn’t be. So I’ve said most of what I wanted to say on this call-but not all of it.”

5. Recession risks are still with us. According to prediction markets the chances of a 2025 recession fell from 68% this morning to 53% this afternoon.

That's a big risk.

4. During this pause, the United States will still have the highest tariffs in the industrialized world, perhaps 10-20 times that of most of our trading partners, and roughly ten times higher than it was before.

These are still at or above the Depression era Smoot-Hawley tariffs

3. The rationale for this policy keeps changing. Remember when it was all about bringing manufacturing home? (That was yesterday.) Now it's negotiating deals. Those are fundamentally in tension.

(I'm only going to build a factory in the US if tariffs are likely to persist.)

That's brutal for, say, flights. If you have a ticket for "25 past midnight" how do you know which day? You can't memorise it, you need to look up the date.

yes, no true surprise

Leave markets, look at macro, France bsky.app/profile/zsch...

Con esto de hoy:
“The National Rally will activate the censure vote unless of course there is a last minute miracle,” Bardella told RTL radio. “If Barnier changes his text between now and 3 p.m., but I’ve got little hope he’ll see the light given we’ve been ignored and scorned for several months.”

So: while a pleasant peasant eats a pheasant, what shall Bessant do?