Rodrigo Orihuela
@rorihuela.bsky.social
Bloomberg bureau chief @ Madrid.
Patagónico.
Patagónico.
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
April 13, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Gotta watch the Argentine market tomorrow. FX (ARS/USD) to be let to roam free in the 1,000 to 1,400 range. Test of tests.
April 13, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Gotta watch the Argentine market tomorrow. FX (ARS/USD) to be let to roam free in the 1,000 to 1,400 range. Test of tests.
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
Not entirely usual
30-year US bond yields rose the most since 1982. Equities fell. The dollar fell. Gold hit a record high. This is not, perhaps, entirely usual.
www.ubs.com/global/en/we...
#EconSky
30-year US bond yields rose the most since 1982. Equities fell. The dollar fell. Gold hit a record high. This is not, perhaps, entirely usual.
www.ubs.com/global/en/we...
#EconSky
Not entirely usual
US President Trump’s administration clarified the 125% tax on imports from China was 145%. This increase will not shift demand patterns (it will cost US consumers more money). For investors, this rais...
www.ubs.com
April 11, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Not entirely usual
30-year US bond yields rose the most since 1982. Equities fell. The dollar fell. Gold hit a record high. This is not, perhaps, entirely usual.
www.ubs.com/global/en/we...
#EconSky
30-year US bond yields rose the most since 1982. Equities fell. The dollar fell. Gold hit a record high. This is not, perhaps, entirely usual.
www.ubs.com/global/en/we...
#EconSky
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
From a client presentation hosted by JPM analyst Michael Cemblast and quoted by BBG “ People are being held accountable for their views and the things they say in ways that they probably shouldn’t be. So I’ve said most of what I wanted to say on this call-but not all of it.”
April 10, 2025 at 4:22 PM
From a client presentation hosted by JPM analyst Michael Cemblast and quoted by BBG “ People are being held accountable for their views and the things they say in ways that they probably shouldn’t be. So I’ve said most of what I wanted to say on this call-but not all of it.”
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
A quick note on Trump's new tariff plan. It's 10 percent across the board, 125 percent (!) on China. What's the effective tariff rate? Well, China was 13 percent of imports in 2024, so you might say .13*125+.87*10 = 24.95. But imports from China will fall, so how do we adjust it? 1/
April 10, 2025 at 10:25 AM
A quick note on Trump's new tariff plan. It's 10 percent across the board, 125 percent (!) on China. What's the effective tariff rate? Well, China was 13 percent of imports in 2024, so you might say .13*125+.87*10 = 24.95. But imports from China will fall, so how do we adjust it? 1/
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
Two ironies from yesterday for a country like Vietnam, which has a 90-day reprieve from a 46% rate, down to 10%. It has been under US pressure over diversion of Chinese goods via Vietnam. But (mutatis mutandis) 125% on China, 10% on Vietnam might raise the incentive even more.
April 10, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Two ironies from yesterday for a country like Vietnam, which has a 90-day reprieve from a 46% rate, down to 10%. It has been under US pressure over diversion of Chinese goods via Vietnam. But (mutatis mutandis) 125% on China, 10% on Vietnam might raise the incentive even more.
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
5. Recession risks are still with us. According to prediction markets the chances of a 2025 recession fell from 68% this morning to 53% this afternoon.
That's a big risk.
That's a big risk.
April 9, 2025 at 7:46 PM
5. Recession risks are still with us. According to prediction markets the chances of a 2025 recession fell from 68% this morning to 53% this afternoon.
That's a big risk.
That's a big risk.
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
4. During this pause, the United States will still have the highest tariffs in the industrialized world, perhaps 10-20 times that of most of our trading partners, and roughly ten times higher than it was before.
These are still at or above the Depression era Smoot-Hawley tariffs
These are still at or above the Depression era Smoot-Hawley tariffs
April 9, 2025 at 7:46 PM
4. During this pause, the United States will still have the highest tariffs in the industrialized world, perhaps 10-20 times that of most of our trading partners, and roughly ten times higher than it was before.
These are still at or above the Depression era Smoot-Hawley tariffs
These are still at or above the Depression era Smoot-Hawley tariffs
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
3. The rationale for this policy keeps changing. Remember when it was all about bringing manufacturing home? (That was yesterday.) Now it's negotiating deals. Those are fundamentally in tension.
(I'm only going to build a factory in the US if tariffs are likely to persist.)
(I'm only going to build a factory in the US if tariffs are likely to persist.)
April 9, 2025 at 7:46 PM
3. The rationale for this policy keeps changing. Remember when it was all about bringing manufacturing home? (That was yesterday.) Now it's negotiating deals. Those are fundamentally in tension.
(I'm only going to build a factory in the US if tariffs are likely to persist.)
(I'm only going to build a factory in the US if tariffs are likely to persist.)
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
Biggest mistakes I'm seeing in early reporting (thread):
1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter. So most of the pain of Liberation Day is still with us.
1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter. So most of the pain of Liberation Day is still with us.
April 9, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Biggest mistakes I'm seeing in early reporting (thread):
1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter. So most of the pain of Liberation Day is still with us.
1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter. So most of the pain of Liberation Day is still with us.
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
Reporter: “How much of this decision was driven by the bond market cratering overnight?”
Bessent: “This was driven by the president’s strategy.”
Bessent: “This was driven by the president’s strategy.”
April 9, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Reporter: “How much of this decision was driven by the bond market cratering overnight?”
Bessent: “This was driven by the president’s strategy.”
Bessent: “This was driven by the president’s strategy.”
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
One week at America's largest exporter.
April 9, 2025 at 6:31 PM
One week at America's largest exporter.
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
11th worst three-day performance of all time.
April 7, 2025 at 1:52 PM
11th worst three-day performance of all time.
This entire thread makes for a fascinating read on the market going green at the open
Does anyone have any proof that Reuters preceded "Walter Bloomberg" in publishing this headline?
I think this is pretty important in light of the popularity of that Xitter account.
I think this is pretty important in light of the popularity of that Xitter account.
He says he got it from Reuters fwiw. (I don’t subscribe to their wire but didn’t see it in public headlines.)
April 7, 2025 at 5:25 PM
This entire thread makes for a fascinating read on the market going green at the open
“The narrative is moving from US exceptionalism to US alienation,” said Kok Hoong Wong, head of institutional equities sales trading at Maybank Securities in Singapore.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Emerges as Biggest Loser in Markets From Trump’s Tariffs
Donald Trump’s shake-up of the global trading system is hurting US assets more than those in many of the big economies he has just slapped with additional tariffs.
www.bloomberg.com
April 3, 2025 at 6:50 AM
“The narrative is moving from US exceptionalism to US alienation,” said Kok Hoong Wong, head of institutional equities sales trading at Maybank Securities in Singapore.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
Congratulations to @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social, the Methuselah of markets. Frankly it was borderline cruelty to keep him working so long beyond the natural lifespan of most humans. I’m glad he’ll now have time to enjoy his beloved Tottenham Hotspurs more often. www.gam.com/en/news-arti...
GAM and Gramercy enter into Strategic Partnership for Emerging Market Debt Strategies
We are one of the world’s leading independent, pure-play asset managers.
www.gam.com
March 31, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Congratulations to @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social, the Methuselah of markets. Frankly it was borderline cruelty to keep him working so long beyond the natural lifespan of most humans. I’m glad he’ll now have time to enjoy his beloved Tottenham Hotspurs more often. www.gam.com/en/news-arti...
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
European defense sector, by % return today. Column 4 is a 9 day RSI showing how overbought most names are. Column 6 is % return ytd, we've come a long way in larger caps. the key takeaway here is that UK Small/Mid Caps are where the catch up trade is: ( #SRP.L,#CHG.L,#MSI.L,#AVON.L,#CHRT.L,#QQ.L)
March 3, 2025 at 10:21 AM
European defense sector, by % return today. Column 4 is a 9 day RSI showing how overbought most names are. Column 6 is % return ytd, we've come a long way in larger caps. the key takeaway here is that UK Small/Mid Caps are where the catch up trade is: ( #SRP.L,#CHG.L,#MSI.L,#AVON.L,#CHRT.L,#QQ.L)
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
European reporting:
ABB: new buyback, strong order book
ROCHE: in-line, mid single digit growth outlook
SANOFI: in-line, launches €5bn buyback
NOKIA: beat on sales & operating profit
ST MICRO: in-line sales, margin misses, demand sluggish for industrial & automotive semis
BBVA: beat & €1bn buyback
ABB: new buyback, strong order book
ROCHE: in-line, mid single digit growth outlook
SANOFI: in-line, launches €5bn buyback
NOKIA: beat on sales & operating profit
ST MICRO: in-line sales, margin misses, demand sluggish for industrial & automotive semis
BBVA: beat & €1bn buyback
January 30, 2025 at 6:42 AM
European reporting:
ABB: new buyback, strong order book
ROCHE: in-line, mid single digit growth outlook
SANOFI: in-line, launches €5bn buyback
NOKIA: beat on sales & operating profit
ST MICRO: in-line sales, margin misses, demand sluggish for industrial & automotive semis
BBVA: beat & €1bn buyback
ABB: new buyback, strong order book
ROCHE: in-line, mid single digit growth outlook
SANOFI: in-line, launches €5bn buyback
NOKIA: beat on sales & operating profit
ST MICRO: in-line sales, margin misses, demand sluggish for industrial & automotive semis
BBVA: beat & €1bn buyback
Fascinating thread. Then go to the Wikipedia page. Then down the rabbit hole. The stuff we don't know, or understand, and learn about the things we use.
they really, really can't. this is something that is not properly understood about atproto. It's totally portable! In theory, I could host a Bluesky clone myself!
The exact same people did it to Gawker, they can do it to Bluesky - everyone should have a contingency plan to take their social graph elsewhere if possible
November 28, 2024 at 2:35 PM
Fascinating thread. Then go to the Wikipedia page. Then down the rabbit hole. The stuff we don't know, or understand, and learn about the things we use.
Real Madrid. Floorentino Pérez says it's worth 10b euros and he wants to hand over ownership over to club members (aka season ticket holding fans).
Wonder what that switch from being a season ticket holder to being a shareholder will look like for people's income tax come year's end.
Wonder what that switch from being a season ticket holder to being a shareholder will look like for people's income tax come year's end.
November 25, 2024 at 12:39 PM
Real Madrid. Floorentino Pérez says it's worth 10b euros and he wants to hand over ownership over to club members (aka season ticket holding fans).
Wonder what that switch from being a season ticket holder to being a shareholder will look like for people's income tax come year's end.
Wonder what that switch from being a season ticket holder to being a shareholder will look like for people's income tax come year's end.
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
Late to the starter pack game, but here's a handy list of all the writers and wranglers of Bloomberg Opinion who are up on BlueSky @opinion.bsky.social go.bsky.app/87cfrJ3
November 18, 2024 at 5:47 PM
Late to the starter pack game, but here's a handy list of all the writers and wranglers of Bloomberg Opinion who are up on BlueSky @opinion.bsky.social go.bsky.app/87cfrJ3
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
*DOJ WILL PUSH FOR GOOGLE SELLING CHROME TO BREAK MONOPOLY
November 18, 2024 at 10:23 PM
*DOJ WILL PUSH FOR GOOGLE SELLING CHROME TO BREAK MONOPOLY
Reposted by Rodrigo Orihuela
Igual os interesa un starter pack de periodistas de elDiario.es que ya están por aquí.
go.bsky.app/9mKpczs
go.bsky.app/9mKpczs
November 17, 2024 at 9:06 AM
Igual os interesa un starter pack de periodistas de elDiario.es que ya están por aquí.
go.bsky.app/9mKpczs
go.bsky.app/9mKpczs
Santander wants to play big in US investment banking. Some numbers :
1) No. of material risk takers earnings >€1m more than 2x in three years
2) 110 leveraged loan deals in the US in 2024 vs 21 in 2023
3) IB staff in the US was 900 in 2023, 1,300 this year.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
1) No. of material risk takers earnings >€1m more than 2x in three years
2) 110 leveraged loan deals in the US in 2024 vs 21 in 2023
3) IB staff in the US was 900 in 2023, 1,300 this year.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Botin’s Costly Credit Suisse Hiring Spree Is Reshaping Santander
Banco Santander's biggest push yet to expand on Wall Street is starting to lift revenue and transform the retail lender
www.bloomberg.com
November 18, 2024 at 7:23 AM
Santander wants to play big in US investment banking. Some numbers :
1) No. of material risk takers earnings >€1m more than 2x in three years
2) 110 leveraged loan deals in the US in 2024 vs 21 in 2023
3) IB staff in the US was 900 in 2023, 1,300 this year.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
1) No. of material risk takers earnings >€1m more than 2x in three years
2) 110 leveraged loan deals in the US in 2024 vs 21 in 2023
3) IB staff in the US was 900 in 2023, 1,300 this year.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The Onion buys Infowars. No there's a twist.
November 14, 2024 at 3:15 PM
The Onion buys Infowars. No there's a twist.