As far as I can see, this nat sec strategy is far harsher on Europe than on Russia. There is no mention of a threat from Russia or of deterrence, only that "re-establishing strategic stability" is a priority. Europe is cast as a major threat to freedom. A radical, dangerous document.

Russia continues to operate in the "Liminal zone" with actions both below and above the attribution threshold. Each ambiguous action they perform helps them slowly raise the response threshold allowing them to perform more damaging actions without a strong response.

Then of course Trump will look for a scapegoat because he has never once taken responsibility for his own fuck ups. Nothing is ever his fault. If he did shoot someone in the middle of fifth avenue, the devil made him do it.

My prediction is that in that scenario, he blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which puts out employment data. Calls them corrupt, run by Democrats, out to get him. Fires people there, insists their numbers cannot be trusted, White House puts out its own fictitious data to make Trump look good

5/ Surprise is an enduring element of war. The next two weeks could see many surprises. These might include an American decision and strike much earlier than two weeks, a rapid diplomatic decision or Iran striking out at the oil infrastructure of neighbours.