Robert Marsiglio
@robsiglio.bsky.social
Dad. Husband. Blue Jays. Sports. GTA Real Estate. Educational Charts. RE Threads 🧵 |
Realtor - Valery Real Estate Inc., Brokerage
#TORE
Realtor - Valery Real Estate Inc., Brokerage
#TORE
For the first time since my May 12 reading, GTA active listings are back under the 30,000 mark.
One more drop next week before the (potential?) fall inventory flood.
7/8
One more drop next week before the (potential?) fall inventory flood.
7/8
August 25, 2025 at 2:31 PM
For the first time since my May 12 reading, GTA active listings are back under the 30,000 mark.
One more drop next week before the (potential?) fall inventory flood.
7/8
One more drop next week before the (potential?) fall inventory flood.
7/8
Lastly, active inventory continued it's drop.
TO Free: 3,738 (🔻72 or 1.89%)
TO Condo: 7,350 (🔻145 or 1.93%)
Durham: 2,981 (🔻160 or 5.09%)
York: 6,075 (🔻69 or 1.12%)
Peel: 6,016 (🔻126 or 2.05%)
Halton: 3,234 (🔻110 or 3.29%)
6/8
TO Free: 3,738 (🔻72 or 1.89%)
TO Condo: 7,350 (🔻145 or 1.93%)
Durham: 2,981 (🔻160 or 5.09%)
York: 6,075 (🔻69 or 1.12%)
Peel: 6,016 (🔻126 or 2.05%)
Halton: 3,234 (🔻110 or 3.29%)
6/8
August 25, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Lastly, active inventory continued it's drop.
TO Free: 3,738 (🔻72 or 1.89%)
TO Condo: 7,350 (🔻145 or 1.93%)
Durham: 2,981 (🔻160 or 5.09%)
York: 6,075 (🔻69 or 1.12%)
Peel: 6,016 (🔻126 or 2.05%)
Halton: 3,234 (🔻110 or 3.29%)
6/8
TO Free: 3,738 (🔻72 or 1.89%)
TO Condo: 7,350 (🔻145 or 1.93%)
Durham: 2,981 (🔻160 or 5.09%)
York: 6,075 (🔻69 or 1.12%)
Peel: 6,016 (🔻126 or 2.05%)
Halton: 3,234 (🔻110 or 3.29%)
6/8
Here is the year-over-year comparison of rate of sales.
2025 has seen a slow down that 2024 didn't.
5/8
2025 has seen a slow down that 2024 didn't.
5/8
August 25, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Here is the year-over-year comparison of rate of sales.
2025 has seen a slow down that 2024 didn't.
5/8
2025 has seen a slow down that 2024 didn't.
5/8
Here is the GTA wide picture that really highlights the slow down in rate of sales.
It's down about 900 in the last three weeks.
4/8
It's down about 900 in the last three weeks.
4/8
August 25, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Here is the GTA wide picture that really highlights the slow down in rate of sales.
It's down about 900 in the last three weeks.
4/8
It's down about 900 in the last three weeks.
4/8
The big driver for the MOI spike has been the slow down in sales through August.
TO Free: 741 (🔻62 or 7.72%)
TO Condo: 978 (🔻38 or 3.74%)
Durham: 662 (🔻35 or 5.02%)
York: 944 (🔻13 or 1.36%)
Peel: 886 (🔻30 or 3.28%)
Halton: 620 (🔻13 or 2.05%)
3/8
TO Free: 741 (🔻62 or 7.72%)
TO Condo: 978 (🔻38 or 3.74%)
Durham: 662 (🔻35 or 5.02%)
York: 944 (🔻13 or 1.36%)
Peel: 886 (🔻30 or 3.28%)
Halton: 620 (🔻13 or 2.05%)
3/8
August 25, 2025 at 2:31 PM
The big driver for the MOI spike has been the slow down in sales through August.
TO Free: 741 (🔻62 or 7.72%)
TO Condo: 978 (🔻38 or 3.74%)
Durham: 662 (🔻35 or 5.02%)
York: 944 (🔻13 or 1.36%)
Peel: 886 (🔻30 or 3.28%)
Halton: 620 (🔻13 or 2.05%)
3/8
TO Free: 741 (🔻62 or 7.72%)
TO Condo: 978 (🔻38 or 3.74%)
Durham: 662 (🔻35 or 5.02%)
York: 944 (🔻13 or 1.36%)
Peel: 886 (🔻30 or 3.28%)
Halton: 620 (🔻13 or 2.05%)
3/8
In the last three weeks, MOI across the GTA has jumped to a new YTD high (for my weekly readings).
Expect a drop next week when we get the month end expiries roll through.
2/8
Expect a drop next week when we get the month end expiries roll through.
2/8
August 25, 2025 at 2:31 PM
In the last three weeks, MOI across the GTA has jumped to a new YTD high (for my weekly readings).
Expect a drop next week when we get the month end expiries roll through.
2/8
Expect a drop next week when we get the month end expiries roll through.
2/8
Monday months of #TORE resale housing inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 5.04 (⬆️0.30 or 6.32%)
TO Condo: 7.52 (⬆️0.14 or 1.88%)
Durham: 4.50 (🔻0.01 or 0.08%)
York: 6.44 (⬆️0.02 or 0.24%)
Peel: 6.79 (⬆️0.08 or 1.27%)
Halton: 5.22 (🔻0.07 or 1.26%)
1/8
(change from last week)
TO Free: 5.04 (⬆️0.30 or 6.32%)
TO Condo: 7.52 (⬆️0.14 or 1.88%)
Durham: 4.50 (🔻0.01 or 0.08%)
York: 6.44 (⬆️0.02 or 0.24%)
Peel: 6.79 (⬆️0.08 or 1.27%)
Halton: 5.22 (🔻0.07 or 1.26%)
1/8
August 25, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Monday months of #TORE resale housing inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 5.04 (⬆️0.30 or 6.32%)
TO Condo: 7.52 (⬆️0.14 or 1.88%)
Durham: 4.50 (🔻0.01 or 0.08%)
York: 6.44 (⬆️0.02 or 0.24%)
Peel: 6.79 (⬆️0.08 or 1.27%)
Halton: 5.22 (🔻0.07 or 1.26%)
1/8
(change from last week)
TO Free: 5.04 (⬆️0.30 or 6.32%)
TO Condo: 7.52 (⬆️0.14 or 1.88%)
Durham: 4.50 (🔻0.01 or 0.08%)
York: 6.44 (⬆️0.02 or 0.24%)
Peel: 6.79 (⬆️0.08 or 1.27%)
Halton: 5.22 (🔻0.07 or 1.26%)
1/8
GTA wide, active listings stayed above the 30,000 mark for the 14th straight week.
Does it dip below next week?
6/7
Does it dip below next week?
6/7
August 18, 2025 at 9:35 PM
GTA wide, active listings stayed above the 30,000 mark for the 14th straight week.
Does it dip below next week?
6/7
Does it dip below next week?
6/7
Active listings fell across the board, but more drastically in the 416.
TO Free: 3,810 (🔻117 or 2.98%)
TO Condo: 7,495 (🔻146 or 1.91%)
Durham: 3,141 (🔻3 or 0.10%)
York: 6,144 (🔻66 or 1.06%)
Peel: 6,142 (🔻4 or 0.07%)
Halton: 3,344 (🔻29 or 0.86%)
5/7
TO Free: 3,810 (🔻117 or 2.98%)
TO Condo: 7,495 (🔻146 or 1.91%)
Durham: 3,141 (🔻3 or 0.10%)
York: 6,144 (🔻66 or 1.06%)
Peel: 6,142 (🔻4 or 0.07%)
Halton: 3,344 (🔻29 or 0.86%)
5/7
August 18, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Active listings fell across the board, but more drastically in the 416.
TO Free: 3,810 (🔻117 or 2.98%)
TO Condo: 7,495 (🔻146 or 1.91%)
Durham: 3,141 (🔻3 or 0.10%)
York: 6,144 (🔻66 or 1.06%)
Peel: 6,142 (🔻4 or 0.07%)
Halton: 3,344 (🔻29 or 0.86%)
5/7
TO Free: 3,810 (🔻117 or 2.98%)
TO Condo: 7,495 (🔻146 or 1.91%)
Durham: 3,141 (🔻3 or 0.10%)
York: 6,144 (🔻66 or 1.06%)
Peel: 6,142 (🔻4 or 0.07%)
Halton: 3,344 (🔻29 or 0.86%)
5/7
August 2024 was all about the rate of sales holding steady.
August 2025 has given us the biggest two week drop of the year.
Does this indicate that we are in for a slower fall market?
4/7
August 2025 has given us the biggest two week drop of the year.
Does this indicate that we are in for a slower fall market?
4/7
August 18, 2025 at 9:35 PM
August 2024 was all about the rate of sales holding steady.
August 2025 has given us the biggest two week drop of the year.
Does this indicate that we are in for a slower fall market?
4/7
August 2025 has given us the biggest two week drop of the year.
Does this indicate that we are in for a slower fall market?
4/7
The big driver of the MOI jump is a falling rate of sales.
TO Free: 803 (🔻105 or 11.56%)
TO Condo: 1,016 (🔻63 or 5.84%)
Durham: 697 (🔻70 or 9.13%)
York: 957 (🔻33 or 3.33%)
Peel: 916 (🔻100 or 9.84%)
Halton: 633 (🔻51 or 7.46%)
3/7
TO Free: 803 (🔻105 or 11.56%)
TO Condo: 1,016 (🔻63 or 5.84%)
Durham: 697 (🔻70 or 9.13%)
York: 957 (🔻33 or 3.33%)
Peel: 916 (🔻100 or 9.84%)
Halton: 633 (🔻51 or 7.46%)
3/7
August 18, 2025 at 9:35 PM
The big driver of the MOI jump is a falling rate of sales.
TO Free: 803 (🔻105 or 11.56%)
TO Condo: 1,016 (🔻63 or 5.84%)
Durham: 697 (🔻70 or 9.13%)
York: 957 (🔻33 or 3.33%)
Peel: 916 (🔻100 or 9.84%)
Halton: 633 (🔻51 or 7.46%)
3/7
TO Free: 803 (🔻105 or 11.56%)
TO Condo: 1,016 (🔻63 or 5.84%)
Durham: 697 (🔻70 or 9.13%)
York: 957 (🔻33 or 3.33%)
Peel: 916 (🔻100 or 9.84%)
Halton: 633 (🔻51 or 7.46%)
3/7
The regional jumps mean that the GTA is sitting at the highest MOI we have seen since late January.
Durham Region is the only market that set a YTD high this week. In fact, it is the highest weekly reading I have recorded in the 3+ years I've been tracking.
2/7
Durham Region is the only market that set a YTD high this week. In fact, it is the highest weekly reading I have recorded in the 3+ years I've been tracking.
2/7
August 18, 2025 at 9:35 PM
The regional jumps mean that the GTA is sitting at the highest MOI we have seen since late January.
Durham Region is the only market that set a YTD high this week. In fact, it is the highest weekly reading I have recorded in the 3+ years I've been tracking.
2/7
Durham Region is the only market that set a YTD high this week. In fact, it is the highest weekly reading I have recorded in the 3+ years I've been tracking.
2/7
Monday months of #TORE resale housing inventory. 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.74 (⬆️0.42 or 9.71%)
TO Condo: 7.38 (⬆️0.30 or 4.17%)
Durham: 4.51 (⬆️0.41 or 9.94%)
York: 6.42 (⬆️0.15 or 2.35%)
Peel: 6.71 (⬆️0.66 or 10.84%)
Halton: 5.28 (⬆️0.35 or 7.13%)
1/7
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.74 (⬆️0.42 or 9.71%)
TO Condo: 7.38 (⬆️0.30 or 4.17%)
Durham: 4.51 (⬆️0.41 or 9.94%)
York: 6.42 (⬆️0.15 or 2.35%)
Peel: 6.71 (⬆️0.66 or 10.84%)
Halton: 5.28 (⬆️0.35 or 7.13%)
1/7
August 18, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Monday months of #TORE resale housing inventory. 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.74 (⬆️0.42 or 9.71%)
TO Condo: 7.38 (⬆️0.30 or 4.17%)
Durham: 4.51 (⬆️0.41 or 9.94%)
York: 6.42 (⬆️0.15 or 2.35%)
Peel: 6.71 (⬆️0.66 or 10.84%)
Halton: 5.28 (⬆️0.35 or 7.13%)
1/7
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.74 (⬆️0.42 or 9.71%)
TO Condo: 7.38 (⬆️0.30 or 4.17%)
Durham: 4.51 (⬆️0.41 or 9.94%)
York: 6.42 (⬆️0.15 or 2.35%)
Peel: 6.71 (⬆️0.66 or 10.84%)
Halton: 5.28 (⬆️0.35 or 7.13%)
1/7
Is the tide starting to turn when it comes to GTA home sales?
July 2025 is shaping up to be the busiest July in terms of reported sales since 2021.
Freehold sales are projected to outpace 2017.
The doors are by no means being blow off, but have we hit the bottom for volume?
July 2025 is shaping up to be the busiest July in terms of reported sales since 2021.
Freehold sales are projected to outpace 2017.
The doors are by no means being blow off, but have we hit the bottom for volume?
July 29, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Is the tide starting to turn when it comes to GTA home sales?
July 2025 is shaping up to be the busiest July in terms of reported sales since 2021.
Freehold sales are projected to outpace 2017.
The doors are by no means being blow off, but have we hit the bottom for volume?
July 2025 is shaping up to be the busiest July in terms of reported sales since 2021.
Freehold sales are projected to outpace 2017.
The doors are by no means being blow off, but have we hit the bottom for volume?
Active listings are still outpacing 2024 by ~26.9%, but the July trend is different.
2024 saw a slow build while 2025 has seen a slow drop.
630 active listings have an expiry date between now and July 31, so expect a further drop in next week's reading.
6/7
2024 saw a slow build while 2025 has seen a slow drop.
630 active listings have an expiry date between now and July 31, so expect a further drop in next week's reading.
6/7
July 28, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Active listings are still outpacing 2024 by ~26.9%, but the July trend is different.
2024 saw a slow build while 2025 has seen a slow drop.
630 active listings have an expiry date between now and July 31, so expect a further drop in next week's reading.
6/7
2024 saw a slow build while 2025 has seen a slow drop.
630 active listings have an expiry date between now and July 31, so expect a further drop in next week's reading.
6/7
Active listing inventory fell across all six market segments.
TO Free: 4,173 (🔻103 or 2.41%)
TO Condo: 8,018 (🔻125 or 1.54%)
Durham: 3,187 (🔻22 or 0.69%)
York: 6,504 (🔻15 or 0.23%)
Peel: 6,422 (🔻26 or 0.40%)
Halton: 3,488 (🔻73 or 2.05%)
5/7
TO Free: 4,173 (🔻103 or 2.41%)
TO Condo: 8,018 (🔻125 or 1.54%)
Durham: 3,187 (🔻22 or 0.69%)
York: 6,504 (🔻15 or 0.23%)
Peel: 6,422 (🔻26 or 0.40%)
Halton: 3,488 (🔻73 or 2.05%)
5/7
July 28, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Active listing inventory fell across all six market segments.
TO Free: 4,173 (🔻103 or 2.41%)
TO Condo: 8,018 (🔻125 or 1.54%)
Durham: 3,187 (🔻22 or 0.69%)
York: 6,504 (🔻15 or 0.23%)
Peel: 6,422 (🔻26 or 0.40%)
Halton: 3,488 (🔻73 or 2.05%)
5/7
TO Free: 4,173 (🔻103 or 2.41%)
TO Condo: 8,018 (🔻125 or 1.54%)
Durham: 3,187 (🔻22 or 0.69%)
York: 6,504 (🔻15 or 0.23%)
Peel: 6,422 (🔻26 or 0.40%)
Halton: 3,488 (🔻73 or 2.05%)
5/7
While rate of sales has slowed through July, the drop off is not nearly as significant as what we witnessed in 2024.
2025 -🔻9.7%
2024 -🔻21.6%
4/7
2025 -🔻9.7%
2024 -🔻21.6%
4/7
July 28, 2025 at 3:03 PM
While rate of sales has slowed through July, the drop off is not nearly as significant as what we witnessed in 2024.
2025 -🔻9.7%
2024 -🔻21.6%
4/7
2025 -🔻9.7%
2024 -🔻21.6%
4/7
One month ago, the TO Freehold market was the most active from a rate of sales perspective. Not anymore.
TO Free: 956 (🔻44 or 4.40%)
TO Condo: 1,113 (⬆️23 or 2.11%)
Durham: 783 (🔻14 or 1.76%)
York: 966 (🔻29 or 2.91%)
Peel: 946 (⬆️4 or 0.42%)
Halton: 647 (🔻1 or 0.15%)
3/7
TO Free: 956 (🔻44 or 4.40%)
TO Condo: 1,113 (⬆️23 or 2.11%)
Durham: 783 (🔻14 or 1.76%)
York: 966 (🔻29 or 2.91%)
Peel: 946 (⬆️4 or 0.42%)
Halton: 647 (🔻1 or 0.15%)
3/7
July 28, 2025 at 3:03 PM
One month ago, the TO Freehold market was the most active from a rate of sales perspective. Not anymore.
TO Free: 956 (🔻44 or 4.40%)
TO Condo: 1,113 (⬆️23 or 2.11%)
Durham: 783 (🔻14 or 1.76%)
York: 966 (🔻29 or 2.91%)
Peel: 946 (⬆️4 or 0.42%)
Halton: 647 (🔻1 or 0.15%)
3/7
TO Free: 956 (🔻44 or 4.40%)
TO Condo: 1,113 (⬆️23 or 2.11%)
Durham: 783 (🔻14 or 1.76%)
York: 966 (🔻29 or 2.91%)
Peel: 946 (⬆️4 or 0.42%)
Halton: 647 (🔻1 or 0.15%)
3/7
Three markets saw MOI up, three markets saw MOI down.
It all resulted in a big nothing burger week-over-week.
2/7
It all resulted in a big nothing burger week-over-week.
2/7
July 28, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Three markets saw MOI up, three markets saw MOI down.
It all resulted in a big nothing burger week-over-week.
2/7
It all resulted in a big nothing burger week-over-week.
2/7
Monday months of #TORE resale housing inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.37 (⬆️0.09 or 2.08%)
TO Condo: 7.20 (🔻0.27 or 3.57%)
Durham: 4.07 (⬆️0.04 or 1.09%)
York: 6.73 (⬆️0.18 or 2.77%)
Peel: 6.79 (🔻0.06 or 0.82%)
Halton: 5.39 (🔻0.10 or 1.90%)
1/7
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.37 (⬆️0.09 or 2.08%)
TO Condo: 7.20 (🔻0.27 or 3.57%)
Durham: 4.07 (⬆️0.04 or 1.09%)
York: 6.73 (⬆️0.18 or 2.77%)
Peel: 6.79 (🔻0.06 or 0.82%)
Halton: 5.39 (🔻0.10 or 1.90%)
1/7
July 28, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Monday months of #TORE resale housing inventory 🧵
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.37 (⬆️0.09 or 2.08%)
TO Condo: 7.20 (🔻0.27 or 3.57%)
Durham: 4.07 (⬆️0.04 or 1.09%)
York: 6.73 (⬆️0.18 or 2.77%)
Peel: 6.79 (🔻0.06 or 0.82%)
Halton: 5.39 (🔻0.10 or 1.90%)
1/7
(change from last week)
TO Free: 4.37 (⬆️0.09 or 2.08%)
TO Condo: 7.20 (🔻0.27 or 3.57%)
Durham: 4.07 (⬆️0.04 or 1.09%)
York: 6.73 (⬆️0.18 or 2.77%)
Peel: 6.79 (🔻0.06 or 0.82%)
Halton: 5.39 (🔻0.10 or 1.90%)
1/7
Benchmark home price across the GTA continues to grind down as sales volume slows.
I think this slow grind continues until we see sales volume pick up. Once it does pick up, I think we will get a better idea of where the price floor sits.
3/3
I think this slow grind continues until we see sales volume pick up. Once it does pick up, I think we will get a better idea of where the price floor sits.
3/3
July 23, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Benchmark home price across the GTA continues to grind down as sales volume slows.
I think this slow grind continues until we see sales volume pick up. Once it does pick up, I think we will get a better idea of where the price floor sits.
3/3
I think this slow grind continues until we see sales volume pick up. Once it does pick up, I think we will get a better idea of where the price floor sits.
3/3
Here is the same chart for the 905.
Similar trends with Q2 SNLR peaking in 2016 and setting 10-year lows in 2025.
2/3
Similar trends with Q2 SNLR peaking in 2016 and setting 10-year lows in 2025.
2/3
July 23, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Here is the same chart for the 905.
Similar trends with Q2 SNLR peaking in 2016 and setting 10-year lows in 2025.
2/3
Similar trends with Q2 SNLR peaking in 2016 and setting 10-year lows in 2025.
2/3
Q2 2025 saw the lowest sales as a percentage of new listings across the GTA in the last 10 years.
By this metric, 416 and 905 markets have been in buyer's market territory for the last 6+ months.
416 has been in a balanced to buyers market for the past 3 years.
1/3
By this metric, 416 and 905 markets have been in buyer's market territory for the last 6+ months.
416 has been in a balanced to buyers market for the past 3 years.
1/3
July 23, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Q2 2025 saw the lowest sales as a percentage of new listings across the GTA in the last 10 years.
By this metric, 416 and 905 markets have been in buyer's market territory for the last 6+ months.
416 has been in a balanced to buyers market for the past 3 years.
1/3
By this metric, 416 and 905 markets have been in buyer's market territory for the last 6+ months.
416 has been in a balanced to buyers market for the past 3 years.
1/3
Here is the GTA wide picture.
The rate of sales has dropped by 10.4% over the past four weeks.
Over the same time last year, rate of sales fell 17.0%.
6/7
The rate of sales has dropped by 10.4% over the past four weeks.
Over the same time last year, rate of sales fell 17.0%.
6/7
July 21, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Here is the GTA wide picture.
The rate of sales has dropped by 10.4% over the past four weeks.
Over the same time last year, rate of sales fell 17.0%.
6/7
The rate of sales has dropped by 10.4% over the past four weeks.
Over the same time last year, rate of sales fell 17.0%.
6/7
30-day rate of sales continued to slow, but the drop hasn't been as precipitous as last year.
TO Free: 1,000 (🔻40 or 3.85%)
TO Condo: 1,090 (🔻10 or 0.91%)
Durham: 797 (⬆️6 or 0.76%)
York: 995 (⬆️2 or 0.20%)
Peel: 942 (🔻19 or 1.98%)
Halton: 648 (🔻33 or 4.85%)
5/7
TO Free: 1,000 (🔻40 or 3.85%)
TO Condo: 1,090 (🔻10 or 0.91%)
Durham: 797 (⬆️6 or 0.76%)
York: 995 (⬆️2 or 0.20%)
Peel: 942 (🔻19 or 1.98%)
Halton: 648 (🔻33 or 4.85%)
5/7
July 21, 2025 at 1:43 PM
30-day rate of sales continued to slow, but the drop hasn't been as precipitous as last year.
TO Free: 1,000 (🔻40 or 3.85%)
TO Condo: 1,090 (🔻10 or 0.91%)
Durham: 797 (⬆️6 or 0.76%)
York: 995 (⬆️2 or 0.20%)
Peel: 942 (🔻19 or 1.98%)
Halton: 648 (🔻33 or 4.85%)
5/7
TO Free: 1,000 (🔻40 or 3.85%)
TO Condo: 1,090 (🔻10 or 0.91%)
Durham: 797 (⬆️6 or 0.76%)
York: 995 (⬆️2 or 0.20%)
Peel: 942 (🔻19 or 1.98%)
Halton: 648 (🔻33 or 4.85%)
5/7